P.E.I.'s tough COVID-19 restrictions necessary, says epidemiologist

A Dalhousie University epidemiologist says P.E.I.'s new "circuit breaker" approach is just what the province needs to prevent COVID-19 from spreading out of control.

On Sunday, the province announced several new restrictions after seven new cases were confirmed on the Island over the weekend — none of those related to travel.

The restrictions included not allowing indoor dining at restaurants, limiting capacity in retail stores to 50 per cent, prohibiting private gatherings and suspending all recreational and team sports.

"I think it's a critical move and I think it's a really important move to get back to COVID zero," said Susan Kirkland, an epidemiologist from Dalhousie University in Halifax.

"I think it's hard because we're in a holiday season, but I think that also the potential for harm is very great because we're in the holiday season."

Kirkland said Nova Scotia initiated a similar shutdown almost two weeks ago, which seems to have helped reduce community spread.

"Most other provinces have already lost control," she said.

"Whereas in the Atlantic region, because our numbers are still so small, we have the potential to regain control still."

But once that control is lost and community spread sets in, Kirkland said "it's very very difficult" to recover.

Kirkland said P.E.I. should consider following in Nova Scotia's footsteps and hold pop-up testing clinics using rapid COVID-19 testing.

"We know that rapid testing is less effective, but if we're not working with populations where we think that there's a high risk, then I think that that's a very good use of rapid testing," she said.

"The problem is that ... you can't treat it as, you know, your ticket to freedom once you have that response because there is a degree of a false positive or false negative."

But despite rapid testing not being as reliable, she said that's been successful in gauging whether the coronavirus has been spreading through the community, especially among people who aren't showing symptoms and with no known exposure.

Kirkland said she anticipates cases will move from those in their 20s to older adults and, as expected, the number of cases will need to decrease before we return to "the new normal."

"The problem with COVID is that we're always working two weeks behind, so the cases that we see today are a result of what happened two weeks ago," said Kirkland.

"Anything could happen in the next two weeks."

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