10 districts to watch in P.E.I.'s April 3 provincial election

We're in the final hours as voters prepare to head to the polls Monday to cast ballots in the next Prince Edward Island provincial election. 

With 27 districts, five parties and 119 candidates, there's plenty for Islanders to keep an eye on as results roll in. 

Every district is worth watching, to be clear, but we've earmarked nine that were tightly contested in the 2019 vote and one that's a head-to-head battle between two party leaders.

Will the same districts be close races this election? Will the results signal tides of change, or have time and circumstance hardened support for the incumbents?

So let's talk about what we do know: Last time, these nine districts were decided by less than 10 per cent of the popular vote.

When you get within that range, even one or two polls can decide who's heading to the legislature. The parties know this, and a narrow victory in one election often means a more pointed strategy by other parties next time around.

The 10 districts are described below, with candidates sorted alphabetically by last name.

WATCH | As an added bonus, here are Paul MacNeill's picks for the 2023 provincial election

From tip to tip, here's Paul MacNeill's picks for districts to watch

2 years ago

Duration 8:26

Paul MacNeill shares his districts to watch picks with CBC News: Compass host Louise Martin.

District 5: Mermaid-Stratford

Islanders may remember this as the coin-flip district. Yes, a coin toss decided who won after a tie just eight years ago.

Historically the PCs have held District 5 three times and the Liberals three times, with the Greens gaining it in 2019. Incumbent Green Michele Beaton won in 2019 with 1,152 votes (38.1 per cent) over PC Mary Ellen McInnis's 943 votes (30.9 per cent).

Randy Cooper and the Liberals placed an extremely narrow third with 902 votes (29.8 per cent) with the NDP's Lawrence Millar claiming 38 votes (1.3 per cent).

Does it get anymore hotly contested than an actual tie and elections regularly won by a margin of less than 10 per cent?

Here is who's running this time:

• Green: Michele Beaton.
• Liberal: Gail MacDonald.
• NDP: Lawrence Millar.
• PC: Jenn Redmond.

District 8: Stanhope-Marshfield

Although this district was newly redrawn in 2019, the region has always elected a candidate in the caucus of the winning party. Meaning, this is the only district on P.E.I. that can be considered a true bellwether.

Last time, a four-way race saw PC Bloyce Thompson dethrone then-premier Wade MacLauchlan by a narrow victory — 1,300 votes to 1,196 (39.5 per cent of the vote versus 36.4 per cent).

MacLauchlan resigned as Liberal leader shortly after.

Coming in third, with enough votes to change the future of the Liberal party leadership, was Green Sarah Donald with 747 (22.7 per cent). NDP Marian White was fourth with 46 votes (1.4 per cent).

This time only two candidates are running here, both of whom ran last time, with neither the Greens or the Liberals putting up contenders. 

Here is who's running:

• PC: Bloyce Thompson.
• NDP: Marian White.

District 11: Charlottetown-Belvedere

With Green MLA Hannah Bell not re-offering, this district is sure to have a new MLA. In 2019, Bell won with 1,286 votes (40.4 per cent), topping PC Ronnie Carragher's 998 (31.3 per cent).

Liberal Roxanne Carter-Thompson was third with 846 votes (26.6 per cent) and NDP Trevor Leclerc came fourth with 55 votes (1.7 per cent).

A telling sign the parties are paying close attention to this district is the number of times leaders have turned up to knock on doors with party candidates: four times for PC Leader Dennis King, with a stint by Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker as well.

Here is who's running:

• Liberal: Marcia Carroll.
• PC: Susie Dillon.
• Island: Jayne McAskill.
• Green: Joanna Morrison.
• NDP: Aidin Mousavian.

District 13: Charlottetown-Brighton

There's a similar story in Charlottetown-Brighton: a close race in 2019 and no incumbent running. To make it even more interesting, NDP Leader Michelle Neill's path to the legislature goes through District 13.

The Greens took this district from the Liberals in 2019 by an extremely narrow margin. Ole Hammarlund earned 1,301 votes (40.3 per cent) to Jordan Brown's 1,223 (37.9 per cent). Only 78 votes separated them.

The PCs' Donna Hurry finished third with 567 votes (17.6 per cent) and the NDP's Simone Webster was fourth with 138 votes (4.3 per cent).

In an extremely rare case in Island history, incumbent Green Hammarlund lost the party nomination ahead of this campaign. That guarantees a new MLA will represent the voters of the downtown Charlottetown district. 

Here is who's running:

• Green: Janice Harper.
• PC: Rob Lantz.
• NDP: Michelle Neill.
• Liberal: Sandra Sunil.

District 14: Charlottetown-West Royalty

At the top of this story we mentioned Charlottetown-West Royalty as a good example of a few polls swinging an election.

District 14 was the last to be called on election night in 2019, with Green Gavin Hall leading by 150 votes and claiming seven of nine polls. Then came the advance poll results, which pushed Liberal Gord McNeilly over Hall by just 113 votes.

The final tally was McNeilly with 1,079 (35.3 per cent), Hall with 966 (31.5 per cent), PC Angus Birt with 766 (25.0 per cent), Independent Bush Dumville with 202 (6.6 per cent) and NDPer Janis Newman with 56 (1.8 per cent).

It was one of the closest races in the 2019 election and six candidates are running this time around — one of only two districts with that many candidates. 

Here is who's running:

• Island: Bill Cann.
• Green: Nick LeClair.
• PC: Kristi MacKay.
• Liberal: Gord McNeilly.
• Independent: Jessica Simmonds.
• NDP: Simone Webster.

District 17: New Haven-Rocky Point

What makes this district interesting is not any close margin last time — it was a landslide win for the Greens with 53.8 per cent of the vote. It's that for the first time in Island history, two party leaders are running against each other in the same district. 

Liberal Leader Sharon Cameron is taking on Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker in what could be a winner-take-all, since the future of a party leader without a seat can be tenuous. Save for some canvassing with other candidates, the two leaders have spent much of their time in this district.

Cameron has been door-knocking no less than 20 days, rarely going outside the district. Bevan-Baker has spent at least 14 days going door to door here, while canvassing with Green candidates in at least seven other districts.

Cameron said it's about "sending a message." Bevan-Baker said he can't make sense of the strategy.

Here is who's running:

• Green: Peter Bevan-Baker.
• Liberal: Sharon Cameron.
• NDP: Douglas Dahn.
• PC: Donalda Docherty.
• Island: Neil Emery.

District 21: Summerside-Wilmot

This district will see a rematch from the close 2019 race, with incumbent Green Lynne Lund and runner-up PC Tyler DesRoches among five candidates vying for victory.

In 2019, Lund won with 1,258 votes (39.0 per cent) to DesRoches's 1,037 (32.1 per cent).

Liberal Chris Palmer finished third with 892 votes (27.7 per cent) and the NDP's Paulette Halupa claimed fourth with 39 (1.2 per cent).

Lund swept all the polls and won by 221 votes, but with a 2019 margin of only 6.9 per cent, the other parties are taking aim at District 21.

Here is who's running:

• PC: Tyler DesRoches.
• Green: Lynne Lund.
• NDP: Cassie MacKay.
• Island: Eriena O'Reilly.
• Liberal: Don Reid.

District 23: Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke

Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke was the tightest race in the 2019 election, so this district is on people's 2023 watchlist.

Green Trish Altass earned the MLA's seat with 1,101 votes (35.6 per cent) to PC Hilton MacLennan's 1,026 (33.2 per cent). The Liberals' Paula Biggar placed third with 882 (28.5 per cent) and the NDP's "Robin" John Robert Enman came fourth with 81 votes (2.6 per cent).

Much like District 21, this will be a rematch between the first place Green and runner-up PC.

Here is who's running:

• Green: Trish Altass.
• Independent: Wayne Biggar.
• Liberal: Wayne Cobb.
• PC: Hilton MacLennan.
• NDP: Carol Rybinski.

District 25: O'Leary-Inverness

O'Leary-Inverness has been in Liberal hands since 2007, but in each election since, the margin of victory has gotten smaller.

Incumbent Liberal Robert Henderson won in 2019 with 1,102 votes (40.9 per cent). The NDP's Herb Dickieson came second with 898 votes (33.3 per cent). The PCs' Barb Broome finished third with 462 votes (17.2 per cent) and the Greens' Jason Charette was fourth with 231 votes (8.6 per cent).

The 2023 election will mark the third time Henderson has gone up against PC candidate Daniel MacDonald, who ran unsuccessfully in 2011 and 2015.

Here is who's running:

• NDP: Herb Dickieson.
• Liberal: Robert Henderson
• Green: Richard Lush
• PC: Daniel MacDonald

District 26: Alberton-Bloomfield

Like the four districts we've just outlined, there's another rematch on the books here.

In 2019, PC Ernie Hudson won with 1,312 votes (45.5 per cent) to Liberal Pat Murphy's 1,153 (40 per cent). The Greens' James McKenna got 317 votes (11 per cent) and the NDP's Michelle Arsenault took 99 (3.4 per cent).

Murphy was the only candidate in the 2019 election who lost while holding 40 per cent or more of the popular vote. He attracted more votes than Liberal colleagues who won in District 24 and 25.

Hudson, on the other hand, was the only PC elected west of Kensington and had more votes than any candidate in the western region — except for District 27 Liberal Hal Perry.

Here is who's running:

• PC: Ernie Hudson.
• Green: Ron McConnell.
• Liberal: Pat Murphy.
• NDP: Kester Nurse.