More hurricanes expected this year, but that doesn't mean more will hit Atlantic Canada

The U.S.-based National Hurricane Center released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, predicting there is a 60 per cent probability of an above-average season.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those strengthening to Category 3 or higher to become a major hurricane.

This year's outlook anticipates 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. 

The reasons for an above-average outlook include:

• Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific, so there will be no El Niño to impede Atlantic hurricane development by strengthening trade winds;
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin, an issue because ocean heat fuels tropical cyclones; and
• A northern shift of the West African monsoon, where many strong Atlantic storms begin as tropical waves.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins each year on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30, peaking in late August and September.

Atlantic Canada is more at risk for seeing strong storms in late summer and early fall, which coincides with that peak. 

An above-average Atlantic hurricane season does not necessarily mean more activity in Atlantic Canada, however.

With 30 named storms, the 2020 season was the most active on record, but Teddy was the only storm to have an impact on Atlantic Canada that year. The storm made landfall on Sept. 23 near Ecum Secum, N.S., after transitioning to post-tropical status, but did not cause major damage.

In contrast, the 2022 season was an average one with 14 named storms, but that was the year Fiona left a wide trail of devastation when it arrived in Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm.