Where Prince Edward Island politics goes from here

In some ways, Monday's provincial election followed a familiar pattern, but in others it represented the entrenchment of the biggest change in Prince Edward Island politics since Confederation.

The Progressive Conservatives racked up one of the strongest victories since Elections P.E.I. started keeping centralized records in 1966. Their 55.9 per cent of the popular vote this time out was the party's second strongest showing since that 1966 election, behind only the Pat Binns victory in 2000.

The provincial Liberals have surpassed that high-support mark only twice.

The result was far from unexpected; Islanders have re-elected every first-term government since 1935, often with an increased majority. What is unusual, however, is the continuing strength of parties that are not Progressive Conservative or Liberal — and in particular, the continuing decline of the Liberal Party.

The 2015 provincial election is usually described as the breakthrough for the Green Party of P.E.I., with Peter Bevan-Baker becoming their first elected candidate. But hiding behind that dramatic event was a larger shift. For the first time since Confederation, more than 10 per cent of voters cast their ballots for parties that were not Liberal or either Progressive Conservative or Conservative.

Since that 2015 contest, the Island has had a true three-party system, and at times even a four-party one. Here's a look at how those four parties got to where they are now, and what challenges they face as they think about the next election in 2027.

Progressive Conservatives

Monday's Progressive Conservative victory under re-elected Premier Dennis King was overwhelming.

The party not only won 22 districts, but placed second in all five of the districts it did not win. PC candidates brought home more than 60 per cent of the vote in 11 districts.

Perhaps most importantly, the party dramatically reversed a trend that had seen it earn a declining share of the vote in four successive elections, even including its 2019 victory. The party's vote share in 2023 was 19.2 percentage points better than its 36.7 per cent showing four years before.

The other parties were left scrambling for the few remaining seats this time. Looking ahead to 2027, the opposition parties require some large vote swings to create cracks in the blue fortress.

But while their position is strong, political scientist Don Desserud said Island Progressive Conservatives have to be careful not to overestimate the strength of their mandate.

"This looks really good. It's not as good as they may think it is," Desserud said in an interview Tuesday.

The first-past-the-post electoral system exaggerates victories. In this case, it gave the Tories 80 per cent of the seats in return for 55.9 per cent of the vote. The party should remain mindful that 44.1 per cent of all ballots were cast against them, he said.

But given its huge majority in the legislature, Desserud does not expect the party to collaborate with opposition MLAs in the same way it promised when it achieved only a minority government in 2019.

The party platform also lays out a very ambitious goal: the elimination of the patient registry in two years. If a significant number of Islanders are still waiting for primary care when the next voting day rolls around in 2027, this promise could haunt the PC campaign, Desserud said.

P.E.I. newspaper publisher Paul McNeill agrees. King's government "isn't getting any negative impact on the health-care file" this time out, he said late Monday night.

"Four years from now, if we don't see improvement, they very well might."

Liberals

On election night, the P.E.I. Liberal Party was celebrating a move out of the third-party space it had occupied since 2019.

As the new Official Opposition, the Liberals would normally be considered the government in waiting, but its one-seat victory over the provincial Greens in the fight for second place hides some significant challenges.

"Their voting totals have been going down election after election after election. They have to do something to turn that around," said Desserud.

The Liberals' popular vote share in 2019, at 29.4 per cent, was its lowest since at least 1966 — and quite probably its lowest since Confederation.

The share result this week was much worse at 17.2 per cent. While the Liberal party won one more seat than the Greens, it finished 4.4 percentage points behind them in the popular vote.

Growth prospects are difficult to find barring a major Progressive Conservative slump. Liberals finished second in just three districts and those were not close, with the party losing by an average of 30 percentage points.

While there will be three Liberals sitting in caucus the next time the legislature sits, MacNeill said that small group could face a Charlottetown/West Prince divide.

"Some of the policies that Gord [McNeilly in Charlottetown] promotes don't necessarily translate into West Prince politics," where returning MLAs Robert Henderson and Hal Perry have their base, he said.

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Sharon Cameron did not succeed in earning a seat, leading to the big question of whether she can effectively lead from outside the legislature. If not, the party will again need to look for a new leader.

The Liberals have been here before, mind you. In 2000 they were reduced to just one seat in the legislature, but by 2007 they were back in government. This has been the cycle since the 1960s: three terms in government, and then a switch. 

But particularly with the political landscape shifting, there are no future guarantees.

"These things do go cyclically," said Desserud. "I think it's a mistake, though, to depend upon that."

Greens

The longest faces on election night belonged to members of the Green Party of P.E.I.

They saw a promising caucus, the first Green Opposition caucus in North America, fall to one-quarter strength. Six of eight MLAs lost their seats, and the party was reduced to third-party status. On Monday night, Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker said whether he can continue as leader was a question that has to be asked — adding that he felt it was too early to answer that question.

But while the Liberal victory camouflaged weaknesses, the Green losses hid strengths. They placed second in the popular vote; Bevan-Baker won his seat, so the party's leader is still in the house; and the Greens placed second in 18 seats.

"That's a pretty good base to build on," said Desserud.

"It's hard right now because it looks like such a big defeat, but I think as time goes on, they'll start to realize they're actually freer in the opposition… to be far more aggressive."

While the Greens may still have a base, it's a long way from base camp to the summit. The Progressive Conservatives won about two and a half times more votes than the Greens.

If the Greens are to advance, said MacNeill, they are going to have to learn some lessons from the PCs, who brought decades of experience getting out the vote to this election.

"We saw tonight shock and awe by the PC government of Dennis King delivering advance poll after advance poll after advance poll," he said late Monday.

"The Greens… did not go out and do the groundwork necessary to build the community infrastructure needed to get the vote out."

NDP

The New Democrats were the original third party on Prince Edward Island, but have been number four for a while now.

The party made a bit of a splash in its provincial debut in 1974, winning 6.2 per cent of the vote. It has been up and down since, winning a one-term seat in 1996 and peaking in 2015 with 11 per cent of the popular vote.

They outpolled the Greens in that election, but it was the Greens that won a seat and found themselves on the road to Official Opposition status in 2016.

The NDP vote collapsed to 3.0 per cent in 2019 before recovering a little, to 4.5 per cent, in this election. Along with the PCs, it was the only party able to field a candidate in all 27 districts.

The NDP have had trouble with consistency, fielding a different leader in each of the last seven elections. It remains to be seen whether Leader Michelle Neill can hold on and try to demonstrate that consistent leadership can start to build support.