P.E.I. sees 1st quarterly population decline since 2020 as immigration slows

For the first time in recent years, Prince Edward Island's population has shown some small signs of decline.

According to recent data from Statistics Canada, P.E.I.'s population stood at 179,280 on Jan. 1, 2025, which reflects a tiny drop of 21 people from the previous quarter.

Though that's small, it does mark the first quarterly decrease since the last three months of 2020, when the population briefly declined during the COVID pandemic before resuming its steady growth.

As of Thursday, live projections from Statistics Canada estimate the population has fallen further to 179,249.

Patrick Brannon, a senior researcher with the Atlantic Economic Council, says that decline was not unexpected, given recent federal and provincial policy changes aimed at reducing immigration. They were designed to ease population growth and the strain it causes on infrastructure like housing and health care.

Brannon said while immigration has decreased, P.E.I. has also experienced a net loss of residents to other provinces, like Ontario and Alberta. Additionally, the province has faced negative natural population growth in recent years, meaning more Islanders are dying than being born.

"That's leading to population decline, and that's something we may see over the next year at least," Brannon told CBC News.

Components of population growth on P.E.I.

In the last quarter of 2024, international immigration was the only factor contributing to population growth, with 505 newcomers arriving in the province.

However, this was offset by a continued decline in natural population growth, with 450 deaths and only 357 births.

The Island also saw a net loss of 198 residents to other provinces, with Alberta receiving the highest number of Islanders.

On top of that, there was a net loss of 219 non-permanent residents, such as international students and foreign workers.

Temporary residents contributed significantly to the Island's population in the past few years, but their numbers have plummeted over recent quarters. When the level slides into negative territory, that means more temporary residents left the Island than arrived in the province.

This coincided with a number of major changes to the Island's immigration system. Foreign workers and international students have raised concerns that those policy changes are making it difficult for them to get permanent resident status, causing them to leave the province.

P.E.I. may still see 'a little bit of growth' this year

Despite the recent slowdown, Brannon said P.E.I. still has stronger immigration levels compared to other Atlantic provinces.

"We do expect P.E.I., maybe one province that may see a little bit of growth — but again, much slower than we've seen in the past," he said.

As of Jan. 1, P.E.I.'s annual population growth rate was 1.7 per cent, the fourth highest in Canada and the highest in Atlantic Canada, tying with New Brunswick.

However, growth has slowed for five consecutive quarters after reaching an all-time high of 4 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 — the second-highest growth rate in Canada, behind Alberta.

In a statement, the provincial government said it is aware of the changing population trends.

"P.E.I. continues to experience annual population growth, but at a slower pace compared to previous years," the statement reads. "Population changes are impacted by evolving socioeconomic and demographic factors, among others. We are continuing to closely monitor and assess these changes."

Moving forward

The slowdown in population growth, and potentially even a population decline, is something that concerns the Atlantic Economic Council, Brannon said.

"That's a big challenge for our workforce, finding people to fill the jobs, because we do have an older population."

He adds that recent changes made by the federal government to cut immigration don't take into account the older population in Atlantic Canada.

"We do have more specific needs. We will need more population growth going forward than other parts of Canada," Brannon said.

"We do see some benefit to a bit slower population growth, but we need to reassess some of those policies pretty quickly. Because, you know, we went from growing at several thousand people in P.E.I. per year to what we saw last quarter, actually declin[ing].

"So we need to continually measure those indicators and make sure that we don't overcorrect and then miss out on an opportunity to grow the labour force going forward."

P.E.I. also faces long-standing challenges in retaining immigrants. Brannon noted that only 40 per cent of immigrants who move to the province are still here after five years. If population growth continues to slow, this could create further strain.

To address these issues, Brannon there should be strategies that help retain newcomers, from creating economic opportunities to having the environment in place where people can settle, not to mention ensuring they can access health care and find housing.

"That's something that the province needs to continue to work on."