P.E.I.'s seafood, farm sectors look toward uncertain future with Trump's tariffs coming
'It has been disruptive, I think, to producers' mental health as much as anything'
With sweeping U.S. tariffs scheduled to take effect Tuesday, some of Prince Edward Island's main industries are trying to plan for an uncertain economic future.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday afternoon that his long-threatened trade war is going ahead, with tariffs on goods imported from Canada set to take effect just after midnight.
With the punishing 25 per cent tax on and off the table at various times since Trump's inauguration in January, it's taking a toll on Islander farmers — both economically and mentally.
"It has been disruptive, I think, to producers' mental health as much as anything," said Donald Killorn, executive director of the P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture. "That's been challenging and something we've tried to encourage them to look past, even though that's easier said than done."
Trump has said he wants to punish Canada for a supposedly lax approach to drugs and migrants, even though data shows a border crackdown is already producing results.
Asked Monday if there's anything Canada can do to try and stave off the tariffs, Trump said no.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said Canada has a package of retaliatory measures ready to hit back at Trump right away.
While the economic consequences of a trade war could be dire for both industries and consumers, some on P.E.I. said there could be long-term positives.
Charlie McGeoghegan, chair of the Lobster Fishers of P.E.I. Marketing Board, said 60 to 70 per cent of fishers' product is shipped to the U.S., and the American market will be a difficult one to lose.
But the board has been working for the past several years to open up new markets for Island lobster.
"Can they take everything that the U.S. has been taking right away? Probably not. But we're dealing with… Dubai and Singapore, and China has been our number-two market for probably five years now," McGeoghegan said. "The size of the market potential there is huge, and that's something that we continue to grow on.
"If things change, we've got to change with it."
'These tariffs are unpopular'
Other companies like Veseys Seeds Ltd. in York, P.E.I., could see some aspects of their business grow within Canada, including mail orders of seeds and bulbs.
John Barrett, the company's director of sales and marketing development, said they've ordered a year's worth of large turf equipment in advance of the tariffs coming down.
Even so, if some of the equipment that's still in transit from the U.S. is hit with tariffs when Canada's retaliatory measures take effect, Veseys may have to swallow the extra cost.
"If you're talking, on very expensive equipment, any kind of a 25 per cent tariff in addition to any additional costs because of tariffs on steel and aluminum, etc., it basically prices that equipment out of the marketplace," Barrett said.
"We have to make sure that we have that [equipment] here, and we want to have it here at a price that we expected to receive it at because it would be impossible to go back to some of these customers and say, 'Oh, by the way, it's now 25 per cent more.'"
Trump's tariffs will make some Canadian goods less competitive in the United States because American importers will have to pay the 25 per cent levy to bring them into the country.
Those added costs could then be passed on to American consumers, pushing up the price of everything from car parts and fertilizer to P.E.I. potatoes and seafood.
Some importers could decide to drop certain Canadian products altogether, putting pressure on businesses in this country and the people they employ.
But there are questions about how long the measures will be in place — and how unpopular they could be among consumers south of the border.
"I've been encouraging our members to continue business as usual," Killorn said.
"These tariffs are unpopular on Wall Street, they're unpopular around American kitchen tables, they will have a tremendous impact on the cost of living, they're illegal. They're not likely to last more than 10 to 12 weeks, if implemented at all."
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With files from Connor Lamont