2nd ballot spot could be key to victory for Sask. Party race: experts
Political scientists predict 3, possibly 4, rounds of ballot counting on Saturday
Being the first pick on a ballot in the race to lead the Saskatchewan Party isn't everything — being the second, or even third, choice could be the key to victory.
That's according to two political scientists who, like many of us, are scratching their heads as to which candidate will prove successful after months of campaigning for the party's — and province's — top job.
The party will elect a new leader, who will also become Saskatchewan's premier, using a preferential ballot. Mail-in voting is already underway, with in-person voting, and the final selection of a new leader, on Saturday.
Under the preferential ballot system, voters rank their leadership choices. If no single candidate immediately wins a 50 per cent plus one majority, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated. Votes for that candidate are then distributed to the other candidates, following the ranking of the voters.
That process continues until one candidate has a majority of votes.
Throughout the race to replace Brad Wall, Alanna Koch, Ken Cheveldayoff and Scott Moe have been perceived as the front-runners according to Tom McIntosh, head of political studies at the University of Regina. Gord Wyant and Tina Beaudry-Mellor are also in the running for the leadership.
McIntosh believes there has not been a breakaway moment for any of those contenders, so who ultimately pulls ahead will come down to the candidate with the most second, or third, ballot support.
"I really think that's going to be what carries this through."
2nd ballot could make the difference
Joe Garcea, a professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said for a leadership candidate, being a second choice is "equally important" to being someone's first pick on a ballot.
The second-ballot spot is important because of how preferential voting works — when a candidate is knocked out, the vote initially given to them will be assigned to the second choices listed on those ballots.
"You might be third in terms of being ranked first, but if you're first-ranked in a second round of balloting and then pick all those [votes] up, you could easily jump to first place in one ballot," explained Garcea.
'Strategic campaigning'
McIntosh believes not only is strategic voting at play, but also what he calls "strategic campaigning."
"That could wind up being quite decisive on this," he said.
"One of the things that got Andrew Scheer the federal Conservative leadership was that he was a lot of people's second choice. And so as candidates dropped off the ballot he kept his lead, but it got smaller and smaller and smaller, and those votes eventually got Andrew Scheer enough to [get] just over the top and edge over a slim victory."
However, he said where votes go depends on how many members actually filled out second, third and fourth choices.
McIntosh added that typically, people who buy a membership to vote in a leadership campaign do so to vote for a particular candidate.
Sask. Party executive director Patrick Bundrock said the number of ballots cast, including spoiled ones, will not be known until Saturday.
As of Wednesday, he said more than 1,000 people are expected to attend Saturday's convention, where in-person voting will be taking place.
3 or 4 rounds of counting
Both McIntosh and Garcea predict at least three, possibly four, rounds of counting to occur Saturday to determine who is premier-designate.
In terms of outcomes, they say former RCMP sergeant and northern Saskatchewan MP Rob Clarke, who dropped out of race but will still appear on the ballot, will be eliminated first, likely followed by Tina Beaudry-Mellor, who both experts say lacks party support.
According to Garcea, Gord Wyant could garner better ballot support than some assume if some supporters, such as those in the education sector, cast a ballot.
"I think he's been courting it much more strongly and much more clearly and got to them much earlier than some of the other candidates," Garcea said.
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