Voters in northwestern Sask. heading to polls Tuesday for provincial byelection

Tuesday is byelection day for voters in a vast provincial riding in the uppermost part of northwestern Saskatchewan.

The Athabasca constituency has been without a representative in the Legislative Assembly since long-time NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned last summer to run for the Liberals in the 2021 federal election in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River — a race he lost to Conservative incumbent Gary Vidal.

Belanger was the longest-serving MLA in the province at the time of his resignation.

Four candidates are in the running to replace Belanger:

• Clint Arnason (Buffalo Party of Saskatchewan).
• Georgina Jolibois (New Democratic Party).
• Jim Lemaigre (Saskatchewan Party).
• Darwin Roy (Independent).

'Massive constituency'

Voting will be held in 18 communities. The northernmost polling location, Uranium City, is approximately 585 kilometres north of the southernmost location, Green Lake.

Elections Saskatchewan said it used vehicles, snowmobiles and planes to deliver ballots to various locations in this "massive constituency."

Despite its geographical size, the riding has just 10,373 eligible voters, including 9,277 registered voters.

Elections Saskatchewan said 933 advance votes were cast over five days of advance polling from Feb. 9 to 13, compared to 1,070 votes during advance voting in the 2020 provincial election in Athabasca.

Michael Boda, the chief electoral officer for Elections Saskatchewan, called the advance polling numbers "interesting." 

"Sometimes during a byelection, we'll see a drop because there's not as much interest that's generated across the province during a general election," he said. "But in this particular case, we're seeing that turnout rate is about the same."

The last four provincial byelections in Saskatchewan, all held in 2018, saw voter turnout range from 32.5 to 42.5 per cent. In comparison, voter turnout in those ridings in the 2020 provincial election ranged from 57.1 to 58.3 per cent.

Mail-in ballot number not as high as hoped

Elections Saskatchewan said it mailed out 40 vote-by-mail ballot kits to voters who applied. Only the ones that are put in the mail for return by the deadline of 8 p.m. CST Tuesday will be counted, it said.

Boda had previously encouraged voters in the riding to consider voting by mail, saying COVID-19 or the wintry weather could make it difficult to reach their voting location in person.

He said the number of mail-in ballot applications is up over what was requested in the 2020 election, but election officials had been hoping for more.

"So we did see an uptick, but it's not at the levels that it might be in other constituencies," he said.

Boda said election officials are repeating a lot of the protocols that were in place in the 2020 provincial election, adding they were reviewed by chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab.

"He has assured us that we are at or above the protocols that would be used anywhere in the province," Boda said. "So he feels very confident to support this process."

Boda said pandemic protocols include all election workers and voters wearing masks, either their own or one provided at the door.

He said physical distancing will be in place, as will clear dividers between workers and voters. Voting places will be cleaned throughout the day, and single-use pencils and sanitizer will be offered, he said.

Boda said they have a full complement of election workers, but some had to be replaced by spares because of COVID-19.

"The truth is that recruitment is an ongoing challenge for Elections Saskatchewan, and we are doing everything to work with the communities to encourage people to support democracy," he said.

Lack of general election expected to affect turnout more than pandemic

Ken Coates, a professor and Canada Research Chair with the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Saskatchewan, said he expects a decent voter turnout, but he would be surprised if it was 75 per cent of the norm.

"There are no particularly burning party issues at play here. There are no massive personality issues or disputes," he said.

"And, quite frankly, this is sort of a bad time for elections, generally. People are run out by the pandemic."

Coates said he thinks the absence of a general election will be a bigger factor in a lower turnout than the pandemic or cold, winter weather.

"When you have these special constituency byelections, the people there sometimes just don't even take notice of it," he said. "The parties aren't spending a lot of money."

Coates said party voting typically determines who wins votes in more southern ridings, but he expects voters in this byelection to put a lot of emphasis on the candidates themselves.

"You have to have a track record as an individual. People know you on a personal level. Often, they know your family," he said.

"That matters a lot in northern constituencies."

The Athabasca riding has been held by the NDP ever since Belanger left the Saskatchewan Liberal Party in 1998 to represent Athabasca for the New Democrats.

Polls are open Tuesday from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. CST.