Regina can't afford to build catalyst mega-projects all at once, but delays will also be costly

As Regina begins the process of deciding which mega-projects it will build that could help shape the city's downtown for decades to come, it's encountering a pair of familiar problems: time and inflation. 

The City of Regina simply cannot build all of the projects that its catalyst committee has recommended at the same time.

"If we'd made some of these decisions years ago, we'd be in a better place as a city," said Tim Reid, CEO of Regina Exhibition Association Limited, and co-chair of the catalyst committee on Tuesday. 

Regina does not have enough money on hand, and this council has made it clear it prefers not to see a significant increase in the city's mill rate.

Regina is also projected to carry $371.5 million in debt by the end of 2023 — a large chunk of which comes from construction of Mosaic Stadium — and the city is facing some tough choices. 

That's why a report released last week by the city's catalyst committee recommends that city council begin the process of plotting how and where it plans to build a series of projects over the next 10 to 20 years. 

The committee recommends the city construct the projects in the following order: 

• Non-vehicular trail.
• New aquatic facility.
• New central library.
• Replacement for the Brandt Centre located in downtown Regina.

Experts like Rylan Graham, an assistant professor in the University of Northern British Columbia's school of planning and sustainability, said the report has provoked some interesting conversations. 

Graham, who is originally from Regina, says the recommendation to plan out how and when the city construct each of the catalyst projects is sound.

"I think it is an important exercise [and] process to go through. To plan for the future rather than responding, reacting, making decisions in a relatively or much shorter time frame," he said in an interview this week. 

However, there will be consequence if council follows that process. 

LISTEN | Regina's mayor discusses the work of the catalyst committee so far:

Inflation is continuing to climb in Canada, and the co-chairs of the catalyst committee say there's no indication it will slow down.

Costs could rise 80 per cent in 10 years: projection

The committee brought in a consultant whose analysis shows that if projects are not built until 2025, they could see an increase in costs of 38 per cent. 

Even now, the projects the city is recommended to pursue first — the non-vehicular trail and the aquatic centre — are unlikely to begin construction until 2024-2025 at the earliest. 

The further out the city plans, the more the projects will cost. 

The analysis found that projects built more than a decade from now could see their prices balloon by more than 80 per cent. 

"The first lesson about inflation is if you can find a way to do it, do it now, because in 10 years it's going to be 60 per cent more expensive, if not more so," said Coun. Bob Hawkins (Ward 2), who serves as the catalyst committee's other co-chair. 

Reid highlighted that the escalating cost of projects may even prevent the start of their construction. 

While the city has yet to even sign off on any of the catalyst projects, inflation has already had an effect. 

A feasibility study presented to city council last year recommended an aquatic centre that would include a 10-lane, 50-metre competition pool and a 10-lane, 50-metre dive pool at a cost of $172 million.

As a result of escalating inflation, the recommendation being put in front of council by the catalyst committee is a scaled-down down version of the original proposal. 

The recommended version would include two 50-metre competition pools and is projected to cost $153 million.

With an additional five per cent in inflationary costs, the total cost of the project — as recommended by the catalyst committee — would be $160.7 million. 

While Regina city council will ultimately decide how these projects will be scheduled, the catalyst committee did offer some insight into their findings.

"Today is always the cheapest day to build, it always is. We simply can't afford to build it all," Reid said.