Sask. farmers brace for more uncertainty while awaiting Trump tariff news

Saskatchewan farmers are bracing for more uncertainty as U.S. president Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on Canadian goods.

Trump announced on Friday morning that he'd halted trade talks with Canada, partially attributing blame to Canada's digital services tax, which was set to take effect on Monday. The tax was retroactive to 2022, so companies would have ended up with a $2-billion US bill due by the end of July.

Trump said he would be sharing details about new tariffs on the country within the following seven days. The details of what products would be tariffed, and by how much, were not announced.

The Canadian government announced Sunday evening that it was rescinding the digital services tax, "in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States."

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Monday on Fox News that trade talks between the U.S. and Canada can now resume. It's still unclear whether either country will pursue further tariffs or eliminate existing ones.

"As an agriculture producer, we know that the majority of what we produce here in Saskatchewan is exported," said Bill Prybylski, the president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, which represents farmers across the province.

"So anytime there's any sort of disruptions in that trade, whether it be from tariffs or, or you know, supply chain disruptions or geopolitical issues, anytime there's a disruption in that normal trade, we as producers feel the effects almost immediately."

Despite the move to rescind the digital services tax, Canada is still in active discussions with G7 allies to introduce an international tax, with Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne leading that work, the PMO said.

Prybylski said that the turbulence brought on by Trump's tariff threats earlier in the year didn't affect prices for his members very much, largely because of the time of year.

"We start harvesting here in Saskatchewan in some parts late in July, but more into the middle of August, September. So tariffs at that time of the year would be quite a bit more of an impact," he said. "So certainly the fall would be a much more significant hurt to producers if there's any disruption in that trade at that time of year."

According to the government of Saskatchewan, the United States was by far the province's largest export destination for agricultural products in 2024, importing $5.8 billion worth of goods. The next largest agri-food export destinations by value in 2024 was China at $3.7 billion and India at $1.0 billion.

Foreign agricultural exports to all countries have also increased by more than 30 per cent since 2014, it reported. In 2024, agriculture accounted for 41 per cent of Saskatchewan's total foreign exports.

According to Statistics Canada, in 2023 Saskatchewan exported $27 billion worth of goods to the United States. That was over half of the province's total foreign exports. Crude oil, potash and refined canola oil comprised 70 per cent of the exports in dollar terms.

Simon Enoch, a Saskatchewan-based researcher at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said that Saskatchewan is in somewhat of an advantageous position in tariff negotiations. That's because of how many important commodities it exports to the United States relative to other provinces.

"The U.S. really needs some of our key resources, mainly uranium potash and oil and gas. And Trump has shown in the past that he's reluctant to put tariffs on those," he said.

"That being said, once again, even the mere threat can change business decisions in our province and, you know, around the country."

Enoch said he's skeptical that the tariffs will come to fruition, in light of past walk-backs made by Trump earlier this year.  

"This is the same sort of scenario we've seen played out over and over and over again with this administration," said Enoch. "Anything that they determine they don't like, they immediately go to the tariff threat. And I think what's proven in the past is we have to stand up to them on these sorts of bully tactics."