Sask. has been a sea of blue in recent federal elections. Here's why it's worth watching this time around
A boundary change could make a difference in at least 1 riding, according to experts
Saskatchewan has been almost entirely blue in federal politics since the Conservative Party of Canada first ran a slate of candidates in the province in 2004.
While the Liberals and the NDP have picked up occasional seats, Saskatchewan's 14 federal ridings remain a stronghold for the Conservatives.
With a federal election looming, CBC News approached experts to get their views on the state of the race in the province.
'The most conservative province'
There are 14 federal districts in Saskatchewan. The Conservatives have controlled all of them since 2019.
Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said that is unlikely to change this election.
"My view is Saskatchewan is probably the most conservative province in the country, more so than Alberta," Westlake said.
Jim Farney, director of the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, agreed.
"Fundamentally, we look like a blue province," Farney said.
Farney said that at the moment, Saskatchewan is likely more supportive of the Conservatives than it is of the province's governing Saskatchewan Party.
Westlake said Saskatchewan is a very rural province, and an increasing urban-rural divide will make it difficult for the Liberals or the NDP to secure enough votes.
While Alberta may view itself as a steadfast Conservative province, there are pockets of Calgary and Edmonton that are hospitable to the Liberals or the NDP, Westlake said.
"It is not clear that those same pockets exist in Saskatchewan," Westlake said.
Boundary changes put at least 1 riding in play
The electoral boundaries of all 14 Saskatchewan ridings changed as part of the 2022 electoral redistribution process.
The experts CBC spoke with said the changes will likely have little effect on the outcomes — except in one place.
All three agree the riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is now in play for the Liberals and NDP.
"With Meadow Lake being detached and added to the old Battlefords–Lloydminster riding, a significant chunk of the Conservative vote has gone with it," said Eric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of thewrit.ca. "Enough of it to make the riding very difficult for the Conservatives."
Westlake said he looked at the data from past elections, and if the current boundaries had been used in 2019 or 2021 the riding "would have voted NDP in 2019 and Liberal in 2021."
"That riding gets really interesting," Westlake said.
While the Saskatchewan NDP almost swept all of the seats in the province's cities in the 2024 provincial election, the experts say we're unlikely to see something similar at the federal level.
"Provincial and federal elections happen in their own distinct environments," Westlake said.
Ballot box questions have changed
Farney and Westlake told CBC News in separate interviews that if an election had been called in the fall, it likely would've resulted in an election framed around affordability or whether the economy was doing well.
Then along came Donald Trump.
"Now it's the much more existential question of who's better to deal with with Donald Trump and tariffs," Farney said.
Having a race focused on affordability would've been bad for the Liberals, Westlake said. As a long-term, incumbent government, the Liberals will be blamed for problems with the economy, health care and inflation, he said.
Refocusing the question on Trump and tariffs means the Liberals are "not nearly at the same kind of disadvantage against the Conservatives" as they would've been on cost of living, Westlake said.
Farney and Westlake said that may make the election more competitive overall, even it doesn't play out that way in Saskatchewan.
Both said the carbon tax will continue to play a role in resource-dependent Saskatchewan, even if this doesn't end up being the "Carbon Tax Election" Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had been calling for.
Farney said the Conservatives are likely to focus on the message that the "economy will get better when government gets smaller and we cut your taxes."
"As a political messaging operation that's much easier to sell," Farney said.
Westlake said that even with the carbon tax falling out of favour among the Liberals, it will remain a metaphorical weapon for the Conservatives.
Even retreating from the policy or promising to end it is unlikely to stop the Liberals from being tagged on the subject.
"The Conservatives can still ask the question, why did you support this and why did your party support this over the last 10 years?" Westlake said.
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