'Full-blown crisis': Travel from Saskatchewan to U.S. has plummeted after Donald Trump's election

The number of travellers heading south of the border from Saskatchewan has dropped significantly since the election of President Donald Trump, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The most recent available data is from April. It shows that just over 27,000 travellers entered the United States that month at the 12 ports of entry that border Saskatchewan.

In April 2024, those 12 ports of entry recorded 34,800 travellers. That's a year-over-year drop of 7,700 people, or 22 per cent.

The decline is part of a trend that can be found across the data collected by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at Saskatchewan border crossings.

When comparing numbers reported in April 2024 and April 2025, there's been a drop in the number of passenger vehicles (23 per cent) and trucks (20 per cent).

In fact, the CBP data shows that every month since Trump was sworn into office in January has seen fewer travellers than the same month in 2024.

The decline is already having a material effect on Canadian businesses.

The executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, which represents 32 duty free stores across the land border, said the shops are in a "full-blown crisis." One of those stores is located at the North Portal-Portal border crossing in Saskatchewan.

Barbara Barrett said that on average, sales at the stores nationwide have dropped by about 40 or 50 per cent.

"In the more remote areas in the east and the west, we're seeing up to 80 per cent down. So it is a dramatic decrease and we are feeling the brunt of the elbows up [movement]. I'd say that we're taking it on the chin," Barrett said.

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Sask. travel to United States drops, threatening border businesses

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Every month since Donald Trump became president, fewer people have crossed from Saskatchewan into the U.S. than in the same month last year. Overall, the number of travellers dropped by as much as 22 per cent.

Barrett said the drop in traffic came as Trump ratcheted up political tensions with Canada by making comments about the country becoming the 51st state.

The president's decision to announce and then retreat from a series of tariffs on Canadian goods being imported into the United States hasn't helped.

Barrett admitted that the stores struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic, when travel across the U.S. border was shuttered. The lack of travel now is like being kicked when they're already down, she said.

The compounding issues could force tough decisions for many of the duty-free store owners, with approximately a third of the stores facing closure.

"We're often the pillars of very small communities across Canada. So a lot of the employees have been working in these stores for 20 to 30 years, and there aren't a lot of other employment opportunities in these very remote areas," Barrett said.

South of the border

The decline in traffic is also at odds with a trend that saw the number of crossings from Saskatchewan to the states of North Dakota and Montana increase year-over-year in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Stephanie Schoenrock, the executive director of Visit Minot, said businesses in the North Dakota city are reporting a drop in the number of Canadian visitors compared to last year.

While it may not yet be peak tourism season, Schoenrock said Minot thrives on tourists heading south from Saskatchewan.

"This is the thing that I really want to stress, probably more than anything, is the businesses of Minot want Canadians," she said.

Schoenrock said they continue to monitor the situation and are encouraging their neighbours from the north to travel to Minot.

Opposite trend recorded in Sask.

In contrast to the data provided by CBP, Tourism Saskatchewan told CBC News that the province has seen an "increase in U.S. border crossings into the province between January and March this year as compared to 2024."

April saw a slight dip, but the tourism agency said the stability in travel to the province is the result of strong hunting and fishing opportunities.

"In conversations with the industry, outfitters have indicated that bookings have been steady or growing in 2025 compared to 2024, with relatively few cancellations. Based on this information, Tourism Saskatchewan expects relatively stable, if not growing, visitor expenditures from the U.S. market in 2025," Tourism Saskatchewan said in a statement.

Barrett said the Frontier Duty Free Association is calling for "pandemic-level" assistance, such as wage or rent supports, to avoid closure of duty free stores.

"Once we lose them, we're not getting them back," Barrett said. 

Schoenrock prefers to take a long view of the shrinking travel numbers.

She pointed to the historically close relationship between Canada and the United States. 

"This relationship has spanned decades and so we don't see this as international tourists, right? We see it as our friends that we see often," Schoenrock said.