Does Ford's visit to Sault Ste. Marie mean it's an election battleground? The NDP thinks so

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford's campaign stop in Sault Ste. Marie Saturday shows he is concerned there's a tight race in the riding leading up to the June 2 provincial vote, the city's NDP candidate says.

"It's nice to see that he's coming to the Sault because he ignored us in the last election," said Michele McCleave-Kennedy.

"We haven't seen much of him. So that tells me that they're concerned that it was a close election and it's going to be a close one again this time."

McCleave-Kennedy said she is better prepared this time with more volunteers, and more time to prepare for the election than in 2018.

She said people in the northeastern Ontario city are concerned about health care, education, and how the Conservatives have "basically ignored the north for the last four years."

McCleave-Kennedy also said when Sudbury's Laurentian University announced it was insolvent in February 2021, it showed the province wasn't thinking about issues facing northern Ontario.

Her Progressive Conservative opponent in this election and last, Ross Romano, was Ontario's minister of colleges and universities then.  

"We actually in Sault Ste. Marie lobbied on behalf of Laurentian University and lobbied Ross Romano at his office," McCleave-Kennedy said.

Romano was not available for an interview by the deadline for this story.

Early poll suggests lead for PCs

In 2018, McCleave-Kennedy lost to Romano by just 414 votes. It was one of the closest races in the province. But at least one early opinion poll suggests a very different picture in 2022.

Steve Pinkus, the vice-president of polling firm Mainstreet Research, said his numbers suggest the Conservatives have 47.2 per cent of the vote in Sault Ste. Marie right now, while the NDP is polling at 23.6 per cent. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus three per cent with "a 95 per cent confidence level," Mainstreet says.

"Look, it's early," Pinkus said. "The sample sizes vary and this could change a lot during the course of the campaign."

Pinkus added that an early campaign visit from a party leader is normally meant to consolidate support where that party might already be strong.

Our homelessness problem is huge.- Keagan Gilfillan, Sault Ste.Marie Green Party candidate

Keagan Gilfillan, the Green Party candidate in Sault Ste. Marie, said he believes the Progressive Conservatives are focusing on northern Ontario early in the campaign to strengthen support in more rural areas.

But Gilfillan said the PCs have failed the province on issues such as the environment and mental health care.

"In the Sault specifically, the main issue people have been bringing up with me has been actually mental health and addiction," he said. "It's a pretty bad problem here. Like our homelessness problem is huge."

'Northern alienation'

David Tabachnick, a political science professor at Nipissing University, in North Bay, Ont., said as in southern Ontario, affordability will be a major election issue for northerners.

"Now we see, of course, during this period of COVID, tremendous price increases in many communities in the north," he said.

Tabachnick said that while homes were much more affordable in northern Ontario communities before the pandemic, they have increased a lot and gotten out of reach for many people.

He said "northern alienation" continues to be an issue, where many voters from the region feel disconnected from the decisions that are made at Queen's Park.

"I think a lot of people in our region rankle when they hear about new highway projects and new subway projects, no matter how much they are actually needed in those communities and in the province," Tabachnik said.

"We think, well that's our taxpayer dollars going to projects that we will likely never use or benefit from." 

Tabachnick added that Ontario elections are won or lost in southern Ontario, but all parties will certainly look to make gains in the north.

Seats to gain

Eric Grenier, a polling analyst who writes about politics at thewrit.ca, told CBC News the PCs will be looking to gain some current NDP seats in northern and southwestern Ontario. 

"Some of those are ridings where there's more of a, perhaps, a blue collar electorate that swings between the New Democrats and the PCs, and not the Liberals," he said.

The Liberals have not yet fielded a candidate for Sault Ste. Marie. Shane Pankhurst is running for the New Blue Party of Ontario.