Experts say it's tough to predict northwestern Ontario's 2024 forest fire season. Here's why

After the severity of the 2023 wildfire season, forest fire response teams said they want to make sure they're prepared for the worst heading into 2024. 

"We have possibly a very serious fire season on our hands," said Noah Freedman, a forest fire crew leader based in Sioux Lookout.  Freedman is also the vice-president of Local 703 Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU), which represents forest firefighters. 

Northwestern Ontario's historic warm winter temperatures and low snowpack this winter add to the concern, said Freedman. 

But the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF)  said it's too soon to say what the upcoming forest fire season will look like. 

"It's very hard to place long term predictions about fire activity," said Chris Marchand, a fire information officer with the MNRF's Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services Regional Fire Centre in Dryden.

"It comes down to the weather you get in the spring," he said.

Predicting fire forecast hard, imprecise

Experts who spoke to CBC News said the factors increasing fire risk are more complicated than whether or not it was a warm winter. Factors such as snow depth, when melt happens, and the amount of moisture going into winter all can play a role as well. 

Coniferous trees can dry out during warm springs with early snow melts in April and May, said Lee Frelich, the director of the University of Minnesota Centre for Forest Ecology. 

"The roots are still cold, so they can't soak up a lot of water. But the top of the tree is being hit by intense sunlight for many hours per day and evaporating the water," he said. When combined with dry forest floors, this increases the risk of an early and intense wildfire season. 

While factors like this have been associated with fires in years past, Frelich said it's impossible to predict the exact outcome. 

"No one can forecast the weather two or three months ahead, but we do know that winters that had very little snow tend to lead to a spring with an active wildfire season. It's not a certainty, it's just more likely," said Frelich.

With this in mind, Frelich said provincial and state fire management agencies should err on the side of caution. 

"They should be taking their preparedness measures, making sure they have crews lined up and making sure that they're educating the public about the fire danger," he said.

The Canadian Forest Service is working to integrate new technology to try and get the most accurate estimates possible, said Chelene Hanes, a wildfire research scientist with Natural Resources Canada based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. 

The most important factor researchers consider in northwestern Ontario is moisture, said Hanes. 

"There's some pretty large areas across northwestern Ontario where there was a moisture deficit,"  said Hanes. "We then look to that snow amount to determine if there was a deficit, is there going to be sufficient snow to recharge that deficit. And it's not looking good." 

It's always possible to make up for moisture deficits later in the year if there's enough precipitation, said Hanes. 

The Forest Service uses snow sensors to try and get clues about snow volume and when it may melt. It also goes out and takes handheld moisture measurements to monitor droughts ahead of fire seasons. It's currently monitoring some areas near Dryden and Quetico Provincial Park that had high levels of drought, said Hanes. 

"These are important things that we're trying to figure out, but it's really difficult based on the data we have," said Hanes. "So we're trying to integrate more information and more new technologies to give us more pieces of the puzzle so that there's less guesswork."