Conservative Toronto mayoral candidate Anthony Furey gaining ground, latest poll suggests

The latest public opinion poll in Toronto's mayoral race has Anthony Furey gaining ground, with the longtime conservative newspaper columnist even edging out several high-profile rivals.

A Forum Research poll released Monday shows Olivia Chow expanding her lead among decided voters, with 38 per cent saying she's their top choice compared to 13 per cent for her closest rival, ex-police chief Mark Saunders. One point behind Saunders is city councillor Josh Matlow at 12 per cent. 

It also puts Furey's support among decided voters at 10 per cent, up a percentage point from the week before and ahead of former city councillor Ana Bailão (eight per cent), former Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter (seven per cent) and sitting councillor Brad Bradford (five per cent).

The interactive voice response telephone survey was conducted for the Toronto Star and polled 1,032 randomly selected residents aged 18 and older, 75 per cent by cell phone and 25 per cent by landline, on June 2. It is the latest poll among several that suggest a recent boost to Furey's campaign.

Furey, an executive at the True North media network and former Toronto Sun columnist, is running from the right. He has promised to abolish the city's RentSafe TO program, clear tent encampments, abandon plans for two new safe drug consumption sites and hire 500 more police officers. His public appearances are often peppered with warnings about Toronto's future.

"We've got to make some tough decisions right now about the direction of this city," Furey said in an interview. "It feels like Toronto is starting to slip."

He said that a key question in this election is whether Toronto "goes one step further toward being like Seattle, San Francisco or downtown Vancouver," cities that have emphasized harm reduction policies while grappling with homelessness and a toxic illicit drug supply. Furey says he thinks Toronto is on a path to "urban decay."

"People love Toronto. It's a beautiful city. But they are concerned that Toronto doesn't feel safe anymore. It doesn't feel affordable anymore," he said.

Furey has also committed to ditching the municipal land transfer tax for first-time home buyers, eliminating application and permitting fees for CafeTO and completing a "top-to-bottom" audit of spending at city hall. He says he supports council's vote last month to legalize multiplexes citywide and his "market-driven" plan to build more housing would connect "business and investors with landlords as venture partners."

Furey reserves particular ire for bike lanes, saying he would scrap plans for any further cycling infrastructure on major roads, tear out the existing University Avenue lanes and consider removing bike lanes elsewhere as well. On his campaign website, he says that on the issue of bike lanes, the city has caved to "fringe activists" who don't care if they "ruin small businesses or block ambulances."

Three weeks until election day

Furey's relative momentum has surprised some city hall watchers, says Myer Siemiatycki, a professor of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University.

"He has, in a sense, come out of nowhere to position himself, potentially, as the right-wing challenger among the candidates," he said.

For much of the campaign it has seemed likely support from right-leaning voters would converge around Saunders, a conservative with the tacit endorsement of Premier Doug Ford, Siemiatycki says. And while Saunders has consistently polled second to Chow his overall level of support has been stagnant, falling one point from the week of May 26 to the poll published Monday, according to Forum Research.

Siemiatycki said Furey could be "cannibalizing" support from voters who perceive that Saunders' momentum has stalled out while Chow — a longtime progressive city councillor turned NDP MP — continues to grow her substantial lead. With only three weeks until election day, however, it's not clear that the gap is surmountable for any Chow rival, he adds. 

Furey has not been invited to participate in any of the major mayoral debates to date, which may be a double-edged sword for the candidate, he adds. On one hand, it means less exposure. On the other, it means Furey has not had his policy proposals closely scrutinized or been forced to speak to issues beyond those specifically highlighted by his campaign.

The mayoral byelection will be held on June 26, with advance voting beginning this week. 

You can see the full list of 102 candidates here.