Horwath doubles down — and says a new premier is coming

The long weekend has wrapped, which means campaigning will ramp up as we almost hit the halfway mark of this election campaign. All the leaders are in and around the Toronto area — we're tracking all the places they've gone here.

Here's what you need to know on day 14:

Latest from the campaign

• NDP Leaders Andrea Horwath, Jagmeet Singh team up at Brampton event
  • Horwath's team is trying to build on her momentum by bringing in the big guns — in this case, the federal NDP leader. The same won't be happening for the Liberals, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau staying off the campaign trail entirely.
• From crime to crumbling roads, Ottawa South voters look for local help
  • ​During CBC Ottawa's walkabout in the riding, community relations were flagged as one of its big issues including gang violence, shootings and stabbings. It's a topic that hasn't come up  much on the wider campaign trail but is worth talking about as it is on some voter's minds.

The moment

"June 7, there will be a new premier in the premier's chair."

That's the new line from NDP Leader Andrea Horwath this week as polls show her pulling away from the Liberals and edging closer to the front-running PCs. She first used it Monday at a rally in Brampton.

On Tuesday, she once again dismissed Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's chances at re-election, telling reporters at an ironworkers training facility that the choice for voters has come down to her and PC Leader Doug Ford.

"It's pretty clear that people have decided Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals are not going to form government next time around," Horwath said Tuesday. She's used the line several times over the long weekend.

"The decision folks have to make at this point is: is that going to be Doug Ford, or me? I believe that we need to create more opportunity, that we can build a province where people can build a good life again."

Riding to watch

Flamborough-Glanbrook, population 111,070, profile by Samantha Craggs

This new riding encompasses most of Hamilton's rural areas and forms a large horseshoe around the city proper. Farmers live alongside suburban commuters who zip into Toronto on the GO train. It even has an international airport.

Federally, it's a blue riding. This is its first provincial election though, and it's tricky. The PC nomination generated friction when the party skipped over two long-time supporters to acclaim urban city councillor Donna Skelly. Judi Partridge, a Flamborough city councillor, is running for the Liberals, community advocate Melissa McGlashan for the NDP and environmentalist Janet Errygers for the Greens.

Much of the heat has been on Partridge and Skelly. In a recent local cable debate, Skelly told Partridge she didn't know how government worked, and Partridge likened an Ontario under Doug Ford to The Handmaid's Tale. It's a case of Skelly drawing out the riding's naturally blue voters, and Partridge cashing in her life-long ties to the area. 

Campaign question

Since we've started sending out The Campaigner as a newsletter, we're getting questions about the campaign from you. We'll be rounding up some of the best and getting CBC election reporters and analysts to answer them. You can send questions to thecampaigner@cbc.ca

Here's one from Greg H.

"Just curious about any polling in Waterloo region, specifically Cambridge [or] if anyone is doing polls in Waterloo region. It's early going of course, still I'd like to see province, as well as regional polling."

And an answer from CBC's polling analyst Eric Grenier:

There hasn't been any public polling drilling down into individual ridings so far in this campaign. And while province wide polling usually does provide regional breakdowns, these are based on small sample sizes — with correspondingly large margins of error — and split the province up into relatively large regions. Waterloo and Cambridge, for instance, are usually included in a breakdown for southwestern Ontario. In some polls, that includes everywhere from Windsor to Niagara Falls.

The Ontario Poll Tracker aggregates this data in order to provide some more robust regional breakdowns. Just go to the section titled "How the forecast has changed" and click on the regional tab and select the region you want to look at. As of today's update, the NDPs are narrowly ahead of the PCs in southwestern Ontario by a margin of 40 to 39 per cent, with the Liberals well behind at 14 per cent.

Poll tracker

The PCs are trending downwards but still hold a lead. The NDPs have surged ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote and closing on the PCs. Liberals have dropped to new lows in both popular support and potential seat wins. Get the full breakdown.

Where the leaders are

• Ford: Announcement at Pickering legion (1 p.m.), rally at Pickering legion (6 p.m.)
• Horwath: Campaign event in Etobicoke (10 a.m.), youth round table in Toronto (1:30 p.m.)
• Schreiner: Meeting with Toronto candidates (10:30 a.m.), Guelph Chamber of Commerce candidates debate (6 p.m.)
• Wynne: Mental health announcement in Toronto (11:30 a.m.), visit to Variety Village in Scarborough (4 p.m.)

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