Conservative strategists expect status quo cabinet from re-elected Ford government
Ford could return key ministers to their portfolios as Ontario fights tariffs
For updated information as Ford's cabinet is sworn in, please go here.
Premier Doug Ford's new cabinet will be sworn in Wednesday, and some conservative strategists expect familiar ministers to be sitting around that table as the re-elected Progressive Conservatives try to project stability in the face of U.S. tariffs.
Ford told reporters on Tuesday that his cabinet will reflect what he heard from the people of the province during the snap election last month. They expect him to keep pushing back against the tariffs but also be ready to provide targeted relief for businesses and workers if necessary, he said.
"I have to make sure I put the proper cabinet ministers in based on the mandate we received from the people," Ford said.
The premier's PCs won their third straight majority government on Feb. 27. Members of provincial parliament are being sworn in this week at Queen's Park and cabinet members will take their oaths during a 90-minute ceremony at the Royal Ontario Museum.
Headed into the election, Ford had one of the largest cabinets in the history of the province with 37 members. Conservative strategists say they're not expecting any dramatic changes to its makeup and that the premier will likely return many of his key ministers to their portfolios.
"We have to acknowledge that he ran essentially on a message of status quo and steady as she goes. That makes me feel that we're not going to see that many changes in cabinet," said Laryssa Waler, founder of Henley Strategies.
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Waler, who is also a former spokesperson for Ford, said it takes time to build relationships with stakeholders in some of the biggest cabinet portfolios. And with the uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump, now may not be the right time to appoint someone new to an important post, she said.
"For a new minister to assume a file, it takes a long time," she said. "That's why you usually don't see somebody ascending from the backbench right into one of the top ministries, because there is such a learning curve."
Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers said he also expects Ford to stick with the team he had ahead of the election. It's not just ministers who require time to get up to speed, it's also their teams, he said.
"Ministers are only as good as their staff," said Chambers, a vice president at the Oyster Group. "These folks are going to take quite a while not only to know their files, but to build relationships with the government officials and the bureaucrats."
"I think it's just that downstream effect of actually shuffling significant portfolios that will cause longer-term headaches for the government," he added.
Important to fight tariffs, but signal provincial focus
Loyalist Strategies founding partner Dan Mader said no matter who ends up in what chairs at the cabinet table, he expects Ford will continue to take the lead on the trade war. With that in mind, he'll want to keep his top fiscal ministers — Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli — in their portfolios, Mader said.
Mader expects Stephen Lecce will remain energy minister in light of that position's importance to the tariff fight.
"A huge amount of it's going to come out of the premier and his office," he said.
But Mader said it will also be important for Ford's cabinet picks to signal that they haven't taken their focus off issues at home.
"They're doing a lot of things," he said. "The quality of our schools continues to be hugely important, having a reliable energy supply, building out more transit infrastructure, more transport infrastructure, these are really important things to the people of Ontario."
NDP Leader Marit Stiles, who will once again be leader of the Official Opposition, criticised Ford for the size of his previous cabinet. She said in the past he has used it to give his MPPs a raise, with ministers making as much as $50,000 more with a cabinet post.
"Doug Ford has tried his best to give his own MPPs a sort of sneaky raise by creating all of these cabinet positions and parliamentary assistant positions," she said.
"And let's not forget, it's not just about the money they make, it's about the team around them. That's a lot of Ontario taxpayer dollars being spent to prop up those MPPs, so I have concerns."
The Ontario legislature is set to resume on April 14, with a throne speech from the Ford government expected the next day.
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