Doug Ford vs. Olivia Chow: How will Ontario's premier and Toronto's new mayor get on?
Despite premier’s ‘unmitigated disaster’ campaign rhetoric, there’s reason to believe Chow can work with Ford
After winning Toronto's mayoral byelection, Olivia Chow now faces what could be a far tougher challenge: winning support for her agenda from Premier Doug Ford.
The premier made it patently clear during the campaign that he did not want Toronto's next mayor to be Chow, who spent 14 years as a left-leaning city councillor and eight years as a New Democrat MP.
"If Olivia Chow gets in, it'll be an unmitigated disaster," Ford said just last week. "Businesses are going to be fleeing Toronto. Businesses are terrified. Therefore, the workers should be terrified."
Earlier in the campaign, Ford said Toronto would be "toast" if what he called a "lefty mayor" got elected. Then, after saying he would stay out of the race, Ford pointedly endorsed Mark Saunders, who finished a distant third with just eight per cent of the vote.
Ford's harsh words about Chow — and his predilection for stepping into Toronto municipal politics — might appear to set the stage for a combative relationship between Queen's Park and Toronto city hall over the next three years.
But insiders connected to both Ford's government and Chow's campaign say they believe the conservative premier and the progressive mayor can move past the rhetoric of the campaign and actually work well together.
Observers say the key for both will be to find areas where their political interests align and line up with the best interests of the people of Toronto. Both the mayor-elect and the premier say they'll be able to do just that
"I'm sure we can find some common ground," Chow told CBC News Network on Tuesday. "At the end of the day, politics is what's possible. How do we do it together?"
Ford's tone toward Chow has already become far more conciliatory than it was in the campaign.
"During the election, you throw some mud back and forth," Ford said Tuesday at an unrelated news conference. "People expect us to work together and that's exactly what we're going to do," he said. "We're going to find common ground when we sit down, cause she's actually quite a nice person."
There's plenty of precedent for political adversaries putting mud-slinging behind them and working things out once a campaign is over.
Political parties, for instance, always need to heal in the wake of bitterly contested leadership races. Ford himself has forged a solid working relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, despite the federal Liberal leader slamming him at every opportunity in the 2019 federal election, when Ontario's premier was deeply unpopular.
Chow's victory speech signalled that she wants to work with Ford rather than be his opposition, said Zach Taylor, associate professor of political science at Western University.
"They both know that they need to work together to address the issues that face the city, and that there's political benefits to the two of them working together," said Taylor in an interview.
While Ford undoubtedly holds more power than the mayor, Chow is not without leverage. The Progressive Conservatives represent 12 ridings in Toronto, and since Ford wants those seats to stay blue, he won't want to be perceived as failing to help the city.
"He has to take seriously the depth and breadth of Chow support across the city." said Taylor, who also leads Western's Centre for Urban Policy and Local Governance. "The premier should recognize that the poor performance of Saunders in the election shows that his influence was ultimately rather limited in the campaign."
For those who don't believe Ford can work with a mayor who's been a political opponent, look to the cities of Hamilton and Vaughan, where former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath and former Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca are in the mayor's chairs.
Horwath describes Ford's approach to her now as "magnanimous." She said he set aside time to talk with her last January during their first joint announcement, shortly after she took office.
"It was great. It's been great ever since," Horwath said in an interview. "There are lots of things that we're not going to agree on just philosophically … but we focus on the common ground."
Horwath says a mayor can be an effective advocate for their city without being too confrontational, and she believes Chow can do that with Ford.
"Make your case, but do it in a way that's fact-based. It's not about railing against the government," she said. "I've had a really great response from and conversations with a number of cabinet ministers as well. It's very professional."
Del Duca has also said Ford is willing to work with him as mayor of Vaughan and has proved open and accessible.
Kim Wright, a strategist who specializes in municipal politics, says Chow's approach has long been to find ways to work together with others, and she expects that will continue as Toronto's mayor.
"Olivia's quite skilled at finding ways to work with people. It really is fundamentally who she is, not who people like to paint on the campaign trail," said Wright, principal of government relations firm Wright Strategies, in an interview.
"Building housing, building affordable housing, helping young people get ahead, those are the places where she can start to develop a new relationship [with Ford], and that's going to be critical."
Shakir Chambers, a principal at government relations firm Earnscliffe Strategies, says the approach that the mayor and premier take will have a bearing on the outcome.
"If Olivia Chow … is going to work with [Ford] in a non-ideological fashion, they'll get things done. But if they both go and get into their corners, it's going to be a rough time for Toronto," Chambers said in an interview.
None of this is to say Ford and Chow's working relationship is guaranteed to be all sunshine and unicorns.
The billion-dollar hole in the city's budget, Chow's plan for Toronto city hall to become a developer of affordable housing, and the future of Ontario Place are all potential sources of friction.
Ford has signalled that Chow will need to show the city's fiscal house is in order before the province will start doling out additional cash.
Whatever Chow's dealings are with the province, mustering support from city council will be crucial. She can't expect that Ford will grant her requests without the backing of a majority of councillors.
On paper, Chow will have the "strong mayor" powers that Ford granted to Toronto, allowing the mayor to push through key budget and housing initiatives with just one-third of council on side. However, she has promised not to use them.
Questions about Chow's prospects for working with Ford dogged her during the campaign.
"We have concerns about her ability to unite council and forge effective relationships with senior governments," said a Toronto Star editorial, which endorsed the eventual mayoral runner-up, Ana Bailão. "Dealing with Ford's meddling instincts demands a firm hand."
As firm a hand as any Ontario mayor might try to take with the premier, the reality is the provincial government has far more muscle than any municipal government, a mere creature of the province. When Ford slashed Toronto city council in half, or when the province slashed what cities can charge developers for new infrastructure, there was basically nothing then-mayor John Tory could do to stop it
Ford reminded Chow of who's boss during his Tuesday news conference. Ontario Place "is a provincial site," he said. "We're going to do what's right for the province."
In the Venn diagram of what the premier thinks is right for the province and what she thinks is right for Toronto, Chow will be hoping there's lots of overlap.
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