Why an Ontario Liberal-NDP deal is bound to happen if June's election delivers a minority

The deal between the federal Liberals and New Democrats to keep the Justin Trudeau government in power is prompting questions about whether a similar pact in Ontario could stop Doug Ford from a second term as premier. 

The questions are admittedly premature, mainly because the differences between the federal and provincial political situations outweigh the similarities.

But with Ontario's election campaign slated to start in just six weeks, and with the possibility that no party will win an outright majority, it's no surprise people are asking about that prospect. 

If Ford and his Progressive Conservatives win more than half of the 124 seats up for grabs on June 2, end of story. But if the election results in a minority Legislature, you can expect negotiations between the Ontario NDP and Liberals to begin immediately.

The form that those talks will take will of course depend on the relative seat count of each party, and could even involve the Green Party of Ontario if the numbers warrant. All opposition parties have said they will not prop up a Ford minority. 

While NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca are both saying they're focused on running to win outright, it's clear that the prospect of post-election deal-making has more than just crossed their minds.

It's no stretch to say that some form of NDP-Liberal deal is a virtual lock in the event of a minority. 

Here's the clearest evidence: both Del Duca and Horwath are firmly ruling out supporting a PC minority, but neither is ruling out supporting the other.     

"Working across party lines and collaborating is a really important thing to do," Del Duca said Tuesday during a news conference at Queen's Park. 

"My mind is open, I'm prepared to have conversations." 

Horwath, meanwhile, said the federal Liberal-NDP deal as a good thing for people. 

"When you elect New Democrats, they actually get things done that make your life better and easier," she told reporters at Queen's Park.  

Asked repeatedly whether she would support a Del Duca minority government, Horwath's message was essentially: let the election happen first, and see what the voters decide. 

Expect to hear about a potential deal — from Ford

It's almost certain Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives will try to leverage the prospect of an Ontario NDP-Liberal deal in its campaign tactics.

The aim would be to scare centrist voters who are considering voting Liberal with the spectre of a government influenced by the NDP. 

The government's House Leader, Paul Calandra, is already test-driving this kind of messaging for the PCs.

"We're not going to allow the progress, growth and prosperity that we've since 2018 be jeopardized by a coalition government between the NDP and the Liberals," Calandra said in question period Wednesday.

"We've seen what coalition governments between the Liberals and NDP have meant for the people of Ontario before: billions of dollars of debt, out of control hydro rates, red tape and regulation and jobs fleeing the province like never before," Calandra added 

While there hasn't actually been a true coalition government between the NDP and Liberal in Ontario, the only elections in the past 40 years that delivered minorities both resulted in deal-making between the two parties.

Most recently, after the Liberals fell short of a majority in the 2011 election, the Horwath-led NDP chose not to defeat two consecutive Liberal budgets after negotiating specific commitments from the Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne governments.

The post-2011 budgets brought Ontario the NDP priorities of a surtax on people earning more than $500,000 and the creation of the Financial Accountability Office. 

The kind of ad-hoc horse-trading Ontario saw in 2012 and 2013 could offer a template for what happens between the Liberals and the NDP in the event of a minority in June.  

An alternative scenario: a more formalized deal along the lines of what was reached between Trudeau and federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

Ontario has a history of political deals

There's a precedent in this province, and it came in the wake of the other post-election minority in the last 40 years. 

The landmark 1985 Ontario election saw Frank Miller's Progressive Conservatives win the most seats (52) but fail to form government, after losing the very first confidence motion when the Legislature resumed. David Peterson's Liberals, with 48 seats, struck an accord with Bob Rae's NDP, who'd won 25 seats, that saw Peterson become premier. 

It was not a coalition, as the NDP did not get any cabinet posts. But the formal nature of that accord bears some resemblance to the new "confidence and supply agreement" between the federal NDP and Liberals.  

The 1985 accord saw the NDP agree to support the Liberals for two years in exchange for the Peterson government putting some NDP priorities into place, such as campaign spending limits and an end to extra billing by doctors.

It's anything but a certainty that the Ontario election will bring about a minority. The PCs are consistently polling in the high-30 percentage point range, which is in the ballpark of giving Ford a majority and another term as premier.  

This week's Trudeau-Singh deal prompted some Ontario voters on the left to express a wish that the provincial NDP and Liberals strike some sort of pre-election pact to avoid a vote split that gives Ford the win.

There's no doubt that such vote-splitting will help the PCs in tight races. But the idea that the NDP and Liberals would agree not to run against each other in such ridings is a total pipe dream that is simply not going to happen.