Ontario will build 1.5 million homes, housing minister promises as projections slump

A day after Premier Doug Ford's government quietly revealed its housing start projections have decreased since the last budget, the provincial housing minister says Ontario's goal of building 1.5 million homes will still be met.

To achieve the goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031, the province would need to see at least 100,000 homes built a year. Updated projections in the fall economic statement tabled Wednesday show Ontario is not on track to hit that level in 2024, 2025, 2026 or 2027 — and the projection of housing starts for each of those years is falling. 

As of the 2024 budget, the province was on track for 87,900 housing starts this year, which has been adjusted to 81,300, a number that is nowhere near the stated 2024 goal of 125,000. As opposition leaders slammed the revelation today, Housing Minister Paul Calandra said the province has "absolutely not" given up on its promise.

"We will not fail on the goal of building 1.5 million homes," Calandra told reporters at Queen's Park. "I have a target, I'll meet that target."

The government has largely placed the blame for the housing start slowdown on high interest rates, with Calandra saying the province shifted its focus to building infrastructure needed for more housing when it became clear the rates were going up. But opposition parties say the Conservatives are simply shifting blame. 

Fees for builders need to come down, industry association says

"We are one province in a confederation that all faces the exact same interest rates," Liberal MPP Adil Shamji said Thursday. "Other provinces are seeing considerably more success." 

Shamji specifically referenced the province of Alberta, which set a provincial record for housing starts in the first half of 2024. 

That's because Alberta treats approvals differently, according to Dave Wilkes, the CEO of industry advocate Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).

WATCH | How interest rates impact housing starts:

Do lower interest rates mean Toronto can speed up building housing?

1 month ago

Duration 6:47

The Bank of Canada has announced the fourth straight cut to Canada’s key interest rate. Economists have blamed high interest rates and construction costs for the slowdown in new condo and rental housing builds. But as CBC’s Shannon Martin explains, even with rates trending downward, developers say Toronto is falling behind.

"In the [Greater Toronto Area] it takes around 20 months on average," he said. "In Alberta, approvals in Edmonton and Calgary happen in under six months." 

Speeding up approvals is something the Ford government has been working on, specifically through the Cutting Red Tape to Build More Homes Act brought in earlier this year. 

Wilkes added that government building fees and taxes are an area of concern. He said they can represent a quarter of the cost of a new build in the GTA and it's getting harder for developers to absorb them. 

NDP says government needs to build itself

But NDP Leader Marit Stiles thinks the government needs to go further than making things easier for developers. She said Thursday that the province can't rely on the private market to build all the housing Ontario needs. 

"Government has to get back in the business of building the truly, deeply affordable homes and alternatives that people need," Stiles said. "[The Conservatives'] plan is not working. They blame everyone else and every other level of government. But they have failed Ontarians."

One housing advocate says the government is in its "excuse making period" after it failed to implement recommendations from its own housing task force in 2022. The report said the province should reach 1.5 million new homes by densifying urban and suburban areas.  

"We need to legalize building mid-rise multiplexes, small apartments in far more places than they're allowed today," said Eric Lombardi, founder of the advocacy group More Neighbours Toronto. 

Lombardi agrees that in order for more homes to get built, fees like development taxes and HST on new housing construction needs to be reduced. Much like opposition members in the legislature, he says the government needs to stop deflecting blame.

"I think the important message that people really understand is the government with the most tools to solve the housing crisis in Toronto and Ontario is the provincial government," he said. 

"And voters and citizens have largely gone to blaming the federal government and the municipal government when the systemic solutions are provincial in nature."