Toronto mayoral hopefuls quietly test the waters ahead of 2026 campaign
Experts say early team recruitment and polling have begun
The battle lines in Toronto's next mayoral election are quietly being drawn as possible candidates - including Olivia Chow and John Tory - survey the field to determine who is in and who is out.
Election day doesn't arrive until Oct. 26, 2026, but campaign strategists and experts say serious candidates are making important decisions now.
Here's the work you probably won't see (though you might get a robocall): Candidates are starting to woo key advisors, seek out prospective donors, and they're polling to see where they stand with voters.
This has two goals, according to former city councillor Joe Mihevc. One, these candidates are trying to figure out where their advantage is in next year's race, and two, to potentially pressure opponents to abandon their fledgling runs.
"I would call this season that we are in the primaries," Mihevc told CBC Toronto. "Right now, the key thing is organization and money – who can build an organizing team and bring money to the table."
Most big names won't say if they're in or out just yet, but experts suggest there will be fewer high-profile (and well funded) candidates in the race than Toronto saw in the 2023 byelection to replace John Tory – a race that also featured a whopping 102 candidates in total.
Here's a look at where things stand now and what Toronto's next mayor has to do right now.
Candidates looking for $1M and a clear path
Mounting a mayoral campaign in Toronto is a complex task because of the effort it takes to reach the city's nearly 1.9 million eligible voters, said Andrew Tumilty, a former war room director for Tory.
Viable campaigns need deep pockets and dedicated donors, he said.
"A credible campaign for Toronto mayor needs to be able to raise somewhere in the neighbourhood of over a million dollars to be effective," he said.
When it comes to the candidates themselves, Mihevc said most of the jockeying going on at the moment is in the centre and the right of the political spectrum. Liberals and conservatives are quietly vying to be the main alternatives to left-leaning standard-bearer Chow, he said.
Clearing a lane in order to open up the widest possible pool of support is key, he added.
"The enemy (for these candidates) is not Olivia Chow today, the enemy is someone who occupies a similar political space," Mihevc said. "As the field narrows, then you may have three or four viable candidates who will make a solid run. Then the opponent will be Mayor Chow."
Will Chow run again?
Chow cruised to victory in the mayoral byelection in 2023, grabbing and holding a commanding lead in the polls after entering the campaign in April. But now the mayor has a record to defend, said Toronto Metropolitan University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki.
On the positive side of the ledger, she can point to the New Deal with the province that will save the city billions, highlighted by the upload of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway (which is still being worked out).
But back-to-back tax hikes of 9.5 and 6.9 per cent in the past two budgets could be a challenge, he said.
"It was a hefty increase," Siemiatycki said of the 2024 budget hike alone. "But the truth of the matter is, she campaigned on that."
While Chow has not declared her candidacy, a source close to the mayor expects she will run for re-election next year.
Is a Tory comeback in the cards?
The name generating the most speculation is the man whose resignation cleared the way for Chow's victory: John Tory.
Toronto's former mayor is said to be mulling another bid for the city's top job, potentially setting up a political rematch with Chow, who he defeated to win his first term in 2014.
Tory didn't deny speculation about his interest in a potential run when he spoke to Toronto Today. He did not respond to requests for comment from CBC News.
Tumilty thinks that Tory still has support among some Toronto voters. The former mayor would have a lot to offer the city if he decided to run again, he said.
"I think he would point to his record of public service," said Tumilty, who is the director of issues management and crisis communications at Enterprise Canada.
"He clearly cares very deeply about the City of Toronto, and I think he would point to some of his relationships with other orders of government and his ability to work together to address larger problems."
But the path back may not be smooth sailing for the former mayor.
Tory resigned after admitting to an inappropriate relationship with a former staff member. The city's integrity commissioner found that he violated the city's code of conduct by engaging in the affair, but recommended no penalty because he had left office.
If Tory stepped back into public life, his opponents would use the scandal against him, questioning his judgment, Mihevc said.
Some Torontonians have also raised the fact that the scandal cost the city millions ($11.7 million according to this report) because it had to run a byelection.
"That needs to be part of his calculation. Is he up for that?" Mihevc said. "Is he up for the public airing of that scandal again and again and again?"
Who else is in the mix?
We called around to check on other prominent names that might be eyeing up a run. Here's what we've found out:
Former city councillor Ana Bailao, who finished second in the last election, did not rule out another run for mayor when contacted by CBC News.
"Right now, I am focused on getting affordable housing built in Toronto and across the country," said Bailao, who works for developer Dream Unlimited.
Journalist Anthony Furey surprised many pundits with his fourth place finish in the byelection. He told CBC News he is considering running again.
"As a candidate, I would focus on getting infrastructure built, growing the economy and cleaning up our streets," he said in an email.
Coun. Brad Bradford has been one of Chow's most vocal critics, and placed eighth in the mayoral byelection. He told CBC News he is considering another run for mayor.
"For now, I am going to continue to represent my constituents on council and work with people across the city to do what I can to make the city's government operate better and minimize the hassle City Hall causes for people," he said in a statement.
Former Liberal MP Marco Mendicino, who is currently Prime Minister Mark Carney's chief of staff, is said to be mulling a bid for the office, according to reports from the Toronto Star.
Mendicino did not respond to a request for comment.
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