Organizers for both parties mobilizing to get Americans in Canada to vote

With less than a week to go before a new U.S. president is elected, it's expected to be a close race. 

How close? Americans and dual citizens living in Canada have been tapped to ensure they register and vote — with organizers from both parties saying their candidates can't let a single ballot go uncast for Tuesday's election. 

Daniel Ableser is a dual citizen who's been living in Canada for nearly 30  years. He's registered to vote in Michigan, a key swing state won by the Republicans' Donald Trump in 2016 and the Democrats' Joe Biden in 2020. 

"I have the privilege and I think the responsibility of voting in both U.S. and Canadian elections," Ableser said. "When you live in a democracy — a lot of the world doesn't — you have a responsibility to have your say, to take advantage of the privilege of voting."

Ableser said he typically leans centre-right in Canadian politics and voted for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her choice for vice-president, Tim Waltz, at the top of the ticket, describing what he perceived as "chaos out of the White House" during Trump's presidency. Ableser also said he considered the impacts of both candidates on Canada and Windsor, Ont., specifically, as he voted. 

"I think one of the wild cards with Donald Trump is going to be trade and sort of the 'Fortress America' policy of trade," he said. "In Windsor, we're a border city — we've got a $6-billion battery plant being built. Those batteries are going to be going to U.S. cars. 

"I think that Canadians would be better off marginally with the Democrats. I think we know a little bit more of what we're going to get rather than maybe a hard-line trade approach with Donald Trump — that may be targeting more overseas, but may build the walls of 'Fortress America' at America rather than North America."

Ableser is among over 600,000 Americans living in Canada who are eligible to vote in this election.

Michael Breshgold, an American living in Canada, is chair of Democrats Abroad — Windsor. He, like Ableser, votes in Michigan.

"The state of Michigan, for example, it's going to be a tight race," he said. "We think that every vote we can turn in to vote in the election is going to be critical."

Going door to door in search of Americans

In a bid to turn out every last American who can vote, Breshgold said Democrats Abroad has a non-partisan arm, Vote from Abroad, and they're mobilizing people in some new ways this election cycle, including with in-person gatherings, like debate watch parties. 

"We've actually gone door to door looking for Americans in Windsor who haven't voted or who we can get to register to vote," he said. 

Breshgold estimates about 10,000 people in Windsor-Essex County can vote in the U.S. election. 

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Breshgold said, the ease of absentee voting means they're seeing more people who want to vote, but who may not be able to be at the polls on Election Day and are more interested in absentee voting.  

"It's very convenient to vote. You just have to register, get your ballot in the mail, fill it out, send it back," he said. "It may seem a little bit daunting to go out and get that ballot, but really, it's that simple."

But Democrats aren't the only ones looking to mobilize voters in Canada: Republicans Overseas hopes to mobilize conservative voters located outside the United States. 

Most of the electorate really doesn't change their minds ... which means that getting those people who reliably vote Democratic and reliably Republican but don't necessarily turn out to vote each time is what really matters.- Samuel Routley, PhD candidate in political science at Western 

Georganne Burke is head of the organization's Canadian chapter, based in Ottawa. 

"I have to say I'm quite happy with what I'm seeing among Republicans," she said. "There are some Republicans, it's a very small number who don't like the candidate. But the fact is the vast majority are very happy with him and believe that  he's the guy they want to vote for. So they're making the effort to do it."

Republicans Overseas doesn't have the same robust presence in Canada, Burke noted, but they're now looking to form chapters in major cities and are eyeing Windsor because of the number of Americans in the border city. 

She said there's a key issue for Americans living abroad on which Trump has made a policy announcement: Taxation and the paperwork and headache that go along with filing taxes and tax paperwork in both countries. 

"It has gotten amazing response from American expatriates. They're so happy about this," she said. "I would say oddly enough, for those of us who are focused on all kinds of other things going on in the U.S., that's their single biggest issue."

Burke said she's also involved with another group, Canadian Conservatives Abroad, that encourages Canadian expatriates to vote. 

'Make sure our vote gets out'

"I think this year more than ever, it's very clear to people because of all the talk about the swing states … and the tens of thousands of votes, not millions or hundreds of thousands of votes that are involved in winning this election — every single vote does matter," she said.

"We know that there are Michigan voters living in Canada, lots of them, a bunch of them living in Windsor. I think that especially the Republicans, from my perspective, they understand that it is a swing state … that means for us, we really need to make sure our vote gets out."

Poll aggregator 538, which uses analysis to determine overall election leads, estimated Harris was leading Trump by 0.7 per cent — 47.9 to Trump's 47.2 — in Michigan on Tuesday. 

Samuel Routley is a PhD candidate in political science at Western University in London, Ont. 

He said regardless of the outcome of the election, both candidates are likely to have implications for Canada. 

"Given the fact that both of these administrations, whether or not you have Harris or Trump, are looking to advance American economic interests more aggressively, that will have a lot of implications for how we relate to the U.S. economically," he said. 

Routley said he's skeptical overall of how much absentee ballots will change the outcome and there hasn't been much change in voter turnout.

But there are a few factors going into both parties' push to get voters to the polls, he said. 

"Most of the electorate really doesn't change their minds ... which means that getting those people who reliably vote Democratic and reliably Republican but don't necessarily turn out to vote each time is what really matters," he said. "It seems to me at least that you aren't going to see too much change there.

"Americans abroad, especially in Canada, because they tend to be Democratic leaning — the Democrats are sort of hoping that if they can slightly bump up those numbers ... and because turnout amongst those groups has sort of been historically low, right.

"As long as they can get perhaps a few extra thousand, it might really make a difference."