Assembly of First Nations identifies ridings where First Nations voters could sway results

First Nations voters could shape federal election results in 36 ridings across Canada, according to the Assembly of First Nations.

Using census data on population and Elections Canada 2021 voting results, the AFN identified ridings where the percentage of First Nations voters is higher than 2021's margin of victory (between the winning candidate and runner-up) or where First Nations people make up 10 per cent or more of all eligible voters.​

The AFN also pointed out ridings where new boundaries have resulted in increased percentages of First Nations voters, such as Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa and Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake.

Cara Currie Hall, who is Cree from Montana First Nation in Alberta, was one of the co-founders of 2015's Rock the Indigenous Vote campaign. It sought to mobilize Indigenous voters after the Stephen Harper government's Fair Elections Act changed voter identification requirements, which advocates said effectively disenfranchised many Indigenous voters.

Elections Canada says voter turnout on reserves in 2015 was 61.5 per cent, a 14 per cent jump from 2011 and the highest turnout since tracking began in 2004.

"We had swingability," Currie Hall said.

She said voting in elections does not violate Indigenous rights but rather presents an opportunity to put forward requests.

"The treaty is not with Canada, the treaty is with the Crown, but we also are citizens of a country, so we have dual citizenship in our Indigenous nations and within the nation state of Canada. We have a distinct opportunity to use that to our advantage," she said.

"Your voice is your vote; it sounds cliché but it's actually absolutely true and the most powerful people to every politician are the people who vote, and they don't get to become elected without you. It's really imperative, I think, to recognize the power that's in your hand right now and that this is the time."

To vote or not to vote

Others disagree.

Kaity Adams, who is Onondaga, Deer Clan, from Six Nations, said she is a citizen of the Haudenosaunee and Onondaga Nation, not Canadian, and has never voted in provincial or federal elections.

She said declaring herself a Canadian citizen by voting in the federal election will continue assimilation of Indigenous peoples "until there's no more left."

She said the Two Row wampum, the first treaty between settlers and the Haudenosaunee, indicates a nation-to-nation agreement that still exists today.

"We should be sitting here fighting for our places at that table where we're supposed to be rightfully as nation states, individually," she said.

Marc Merilainen, a member of Chippewas of Nawash Unceded First Nation, said he hasn't voted since 2015 but is considering voting in this federal election. 

He said the Canadian government needs increased Indigenous representation and he doesn't think it's an "either/or" situation between choosing sovereignty or voting in Canada's political system.

He said he thinks a lot of people underestimate the power of the Indigenous vote.

"We can swing elections in certain key ridings," said Merilainen.

"We can focus on electing leaders that prioritize the things that we want: reconciliation, land rights, clean water, housing. Many of these issues require implementing like, say, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Calls to Action. They require people in government to have these things."

The AFN has released its election priorities, and is seeking commitments from party leaders on economic reconciliation, Canada-U.S. trade and border mobility, the Calls to Action from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada and the Calls for Justice from the National Inquiry into Murdered and Missing Indigenous Women and Girls.