The balance of power in Ottawa has shifted to the Bloc. So what does it want?
The top item on the Bloc Québécois' list of demands is a $16 billion piece of legislation
When the NDP and Liberals signed the confidence and supply agreement in 2022, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said the agreement caused the pendulum of power to swing so far in one direction that the interests of Quebec were not being served.
Since NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh terminated that governance agreement, Blanchet said, the pendulum has swung even harder back in Quebec's favour. He said he intends to capitalize on the situation — or see the Trudeau government fall.
"We have deposed a law which is now at the very centre of the survival of this government. This is what we call power," he gleefully told reporters outside the House of Commons on Thursday.
Actually, the item at the top of the Bloc's list of demands is a bill that would benefit millions of seniors across Canada — not just those in Quebec.
Bill C-319 proposes to increase by 10 per cent the amount of full pension for people once they turn 65. It also would boost the employment income exemption used in determining the amount of guaranteed income supplement (GIS), from $5,000 to $6,500.
Blanchet is also using Bill C-282 as a bargaining chip. The legislation would provide new protections to Canada's supply management system.
"We could have serious wins about those issues in the coming weeks. If not, then the Liberals might fall," Blanchet told host Catherine Cullen on CBC's The House.
Blanchet said he's secured no commitment from the Liberals on either bill — dispelling any speculation that he's already inked a deal in exchange for keeping the Liberals in power through the Conservatives' non-confidence motion next week.
"It's not [about] supporting the government. It's [about] not having them fall, soon," Blanchet said, adding his party is practising some tactical patience.
"First, I will let this vote instigated by the Conservatives go through. They will lose it, and by the way lose face, and this is what they deserve presently because they are not doing politics in a clean way.
"I have secured nothing. I ask for things and if I don't get it, they will fall. And that's the end to it."
'We see the trick. We expect the trap'
According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer, the Bloc Québécois bill for seniors would cost the government an additional $16.1 billion over five years.
The bill has passed through committee already — with unanimous support from all parties — and now awaits third reading.
"You know, sometimes it could be a good thing for Quebec, but it could be a good thing for the rest of Canada," said Bloc MP Andréanne Larouche, who sponsored the private member's bill.
"What we feel, with the crisis of the cost of living, seniors are definitely particularly touched by this crisis because they have fixed revenue. They have the same problem with the cost of the groceries and the cost of the housing."
But though the bill had support from all parties at committee, it may not become law even if it passes third reading in the House of Commons.
Because it's a proposal to increase government spending, it needs a royal recommendation — meaning a cabinet minister has to approve the bill. Without that approval, the bill is inadmissible and would go nowhere after passing through the House.
"The government could very well vote in favour of our law but then not implement it using this," Blanchet told CBC News.
"We see the trick, of course. We expect the trap. And we are preparing for the trap and our demands will be more precise about it very rapidly."
Mobilizing the senior vote
The proposal to boost pensions for people 65 and over comes two years after the government did the same for people once they turn 75.
The Bloc's proposed change to the GIS calculation also wouldn't penalize seniors who want to continue to work past retirement age.
"Some people, yes, they're low income and they have to work in the sense to meet some sort of minimum standard of living. But a lot of people want to work beyond age 65," said Arthur Sweetman, an economics professor at McMaster University who spoke about the bill last year when it was before committee.
"It's actually mostly driven by people wanting to work, enjoying work. It's not driven by really low income people who are over age 65 working. It's driven by middle- and high-income people over age 65 choosing to work because they enjoy it."
One former Bloc MP said there's a clear political strategy behind the pension legislation.
"It's no secret that ... seniors vote a lot. It's the age group that votes the most," said Pierre Paquette, who served the Joliette riding from 2000-2011.
"And in Quebec, there are still quite a few seniors who hold nationalist views. The Bloc Québécois needs these votes in the next election and I think having a win like this [bill] could mobilize [seniors associations] who could support the Bloc."
Blanchet told reporters the party's opposition day should come sometime in early October. In the meantime, he's keeping his tactics tight to the chest.
"If they do not come with the vote I want, they will fall. And that's their decision to make. And we are beginning to hear rumours that they will consider that seriously," Blanchet said.
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