Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

The Bank of Canada is projecting that the federal government could fall short of its goal to shrink temporary residents' share of Canada's population over the next three years.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced in March that Ottawa would attempt to reduce their share of the population from 6.2 per cent to five per cent by 2027.

But on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada predicted that the government would miss that target. The bank's monetary policy report — released as part of its announcement to reduce interest rates — said that non-permanent residents' (NPRs) share of the population has actually grown since the goal was set in March.

"NPRs represented 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April — much higher than at the time of the March announcement — and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term," the report said.

"This suggests that it will take longer for planned policies to reduce NPR inflows to achieve the 5% target."

The central bank report does note that there is "considerable uncertainty" about its projections.

"Details on how most temporary resident permit programs will be adjusted are not expected until later this year," it says, adding that their scenario "will be revised as further measures are announced and more details on program changes become available."

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said in a statement that the department will be including measures to address the influx of temporary residents in Canada in the upcoming immigration levels plan.

"The levels plan is expanding to include both temporary resident arrivals and permanent resident arrivals. It will be tabled in the fall following consultations with provincial and territorial counterparts and others as part of Canada's annual levels planning," the statement said.

Targets expected to be ironed out over summer

Miller met with his provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring, and the targets are expected to be ironed out over the summer.

The bank's report comes as the government has been taking measures to temper the massive rise in people who migrate to Canada on a temporary basis to work or study.

Miller had also announced plans to scale back the number of international students by putting a two-year cap on new admissions in January.

Recent data from IRCC shows that there has been an increase in the number of student permits approved this year compared to 2023, which itself was a record year.

The government approved 216,620 student permits in the first five months of 2024, compared to 200,505 permits over the same period in 2023.

But the numbers for the cap on student visas wasn't finalized until April, and the IRCC numbers may not yet reflect those changes.