Carney and Poilievre are fighting an election that's about both change and stability
Conservatives ran on change for 2 years. But how much change do Canadians want?
According to survey data released last week by Pollara, Canadians are evenly split on whether they want this federal election to result in "change" or "stability" — 46 per cent of Canadians want change and 45 per cent want stability.
Among those who want change, 47 per cent say Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would best deliver that change, while 20 per cent said Liberal Leader Mark Carney would. But among those who want stability, 66 per cent say Carney would best deliver it, while 18 per cent said Poilievre. (Dan Arnold, Pollara's chief strategy officer, was director of research for the Trudeau government from 2015 to 2021.)
Such numbers might speak to one of the central divides of this election — and explain why Carney's Liberals have staked out a lead with two weeks to go.
Poilievre has been promising change for more than two years and it is still the central theme of his campaign. At a rally in Windsor, Ont., last week, he used the word 30 times.
Poilievre's central premise is that change is necessary — that whatever ails the country and frustrates voters can be blamed on the policies of Justin Trudeau's Liberal government. And at least while Trudeau was still prime minister, Poilievre's argument seemed to be winning.
In Poilievre's telling, inflation and the cost of housing were the fault of spending by the Liberal government. The federal carbon tax is to blame for the price of groceries, burdensome regulations are to blame for sluggish economic growth, harm-reduction policies are to blame for the opioid crisis and Liberal justice reforms are to blame for higher crime rates. (Each of these premises could be debated.)
Poilievre hasn't talked like someone who wants to merely adjust federal policy — he has run as an unabashed conservative counterpoint to Trudeau's progressivism. He wants to cut taxes, cut spending, cut regulation and narrow the federal government's focus. In addition to "axing" the consumer carbon tax, he also wants to eliminate much of the Liberal government's agenda on climate change.
Beyond that, Poilievre has also run as a populist disrupter. He opposes "woke" culture and has vowed to take on the "elites" and "fire" the "gatekeepers" that are allegedly holding Canadians back. He embraced the "Freedom Convoy" and cryptocurrencies. He promised to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada and said his cabinet ministers will be banned from attending the World Economic Forum. He has publicly singled out mayors for criticism and said he would withhold federal funds from municipalities that don't build enough homes.
On Monday, he repeated his commitment to use the notwithstanding clause to override a judicial ruling — which would be the first use of the clause at the federal level in the 43-year history of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
Poilievre was promising change, then everything changed
At least while Trudeau was still prime minister, Poilievre's promise of change seemed to hold commanding appeal. On Jan. 6, when Trudeau announced his intention to resign, Poilievre's Conservatives were polling at 44 per cent — 24 points ahead of the Liberal Party.
Three big things have changed since then. Carney has replaced Trudeau, Donald Trump has returned to the White House and, perhaps as a consequence, the Conservatives have gone from leading by 24 points to trailing by six.
Carney has also talked about change — the word appeared a dozen times in his acceptance speech when he became Liberal leader last month.
When it comes to responding to the threat posed by Trump, Carney says Canada needs to make "big" changes — most recently he has suggested that Canada's relationship with the United States must change. More immediately, he has signalled specific changes in how he would govern. He cancelled the carbon tax and scrapped changes to the capital gains tax. He says he would focus more intently on macroeconomic issues and bring greater fiscal discipline to the federal government.
But the new Liberal leader is also not vowing to completely reverse course. With the exception of the carbon tax, Carney seems broadly committed to combating climate change. And he seems to believe the federal government can play an active role in addressing problems like housing.
The Conservatives argue that Carney won't really bring about change — that he is surrounded by many of the same Liberals who served in Trudeau's cabinet and that Carney won't do any better than his predecessor.
But it also hasn't been entirely clear how much change the average Canadian actually wants.
Polling conducted by Abacus Data in January showed that a majority of Canadians wanted the federal carbon tax eliminated, but a majority also wanted to see the dental care and pharmacare programs maintained. Earlier polling by Abacus in 2023 showed that just 25 per cent of Canadians wanted the federal government to end funding for child care. And 77 per cent of Canadians think a Poilievre government should take climate change seriously.
In the wake of Trudeau's departure and Trump's return, support for the Conservative Party dropped by six points. But at 37.8 per cent, the Conservatives remain nearly four points above what they received in the 2021 election.
More crucially, NDP support has fallen by more than 10 points and the Bloc Québécois has shed three points. So while Poilievre maintains a solid base of support, the non-Conservative vote has effectively galvanized behind Carney — driven perhaps by a fear of Trump, concerns about how Poilievre would govern or some combination thereof.
Trumpism is the most disruptive force Canada has dealt with since the Second World War and perhaps rivalled only by the sovereignty movement in Quebec. And in this moment it likely does not help Poilievre that he sounds like a member of the extended populist family. It would also be understandable if, in the midst of a crisis, Canadians are now looking as much for stability as they might be seeking change after nine years of Trudeau.
Since entering politics two months ago, Carney has held himself out as a source of stability — touting his experience as a central banker and proudly describing himself as a "pragmatist." Having framed himself as a disrupter, Poilievre is not in a great position to offer himself as a source of reassurance. His counterargument, instead, is that his agenda will leave Canada in a stronger position — and that Carney, either because he's a Liberal or because of his work in the private sector, can't be trusted.
In other words, Poilievre's argument remains the need for change. And it might be indisputable that some amount of change is necessary. But the next two weeks might be about what mix of change and stability Canadians want — and who they believe can deliver it.
Pollara conducted its survey from April 4 through April 9. The sample size was 732 respondents who were interviewed via a combination of live interviews and online panels. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20. For the cited sub-samples, the margin is +/- 5.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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