Election campaign starts in shadow of trade war with Canadians casting their votes April 28
Polls show remarkable shift in Liberals’ favour, but anything can happen in 36 days
And they're off.
Canadians will go to the polls on April 28 in what's shaping up to be a consequential and close election.
The 36-day campaign, the shortest allowed under the law, began with the main party leaders invoking the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump as the trade war and his taunting of Canadian sovereignty are expected to dominate the race.
After attending a church service Sunday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney — who has been in power for just nine days — visited Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament.
Just a few months ago, polls suggested Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was destined for a majority government. But the political landscape has turned upside down since former prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
Now, for the first time in nearly three years, Carney's Liberals have inched ahead as support for the Conservatives and NDP slips, according to CBC's Poll Tracker, which aggregates public opinion polling.
It shows the Liberals would have a roughly three-in-four chance of winning the most seats if an election were held today. As of Sunday, they lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec — and have edged ahead in Ontario, polls suggest.
The Conservatives are nipping at their heels though.
Poilievre's party enjoys wide leads in Alberta and the Prairies and are still ahead of the Liberals in British Columbia, according to the Poll Tracker.
The Liberals' surge comes as the NDP's popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades and the party is at risk of losing official status. Recent polling suggests the Bloc Québécois is also at risk of losing seats, according to the Poll Tracker.
Trump's tariffs casting shadow
The parties' priorities have shifted since the re-election of Trump and the economic instability his return to the White House has caused.
This month, the president escalated his trade war by imposing 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum entering the country, prompting Canada to effectively double its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
Trump's next salvo is expected in the second week of the campaign, with the U.S. threatening another round of tariffs on April 2.
The parties have already been in campaign mode for months, but Sunday's call sends them into overdrive as the two main leaders compete to define themselves as the best person to deal with the unpredictable president.
"President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us," said Carney outside Rideau Hall on Sunday.
Carney, who does not hold a seat in the House, said he's seeking "a strong, positive mandate" from Canadians to take on the president and build what he calls a strong economy and a more secure Canada.
He started his campaign with a promise to cut the lowest income tax bracket by one percentage point. Carney said that would benefit a two-income family by up to $825 a year.
"The best way we can deal with this crisis is to build our strength here at home. And help people who will be hit hardest by these tariffs," Carney said. "That's the Canadian thing to do."
Over the coming weeks, the Liberals are expected to try and paint Poilievre as Trump-like.
During a campaign rally in St. John's Sunday evening, where fish harvesters showed up to protest major cuts to harvesting snow crab, Carney accused Poilievre of mimicking the 47th president.
"While President Trump's plan is to divide and conquer, Pierre Poilievre's plan is to divide and be conquered," he said before a crowd of a few hundred people.
Poilievre used his campaign launch Sunday morning outside the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Que., to try to distance himself from those comparisons.
The Conservative leader said he shares Canadians' feelings of "betrayal" toward Trump and vowed Canada will never become the 51st state.
"You can be respectful and firm and I believe we have to be both," he said, when asked if he respects Trump.
"I will insist the president recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada … and at the same time I will strengthen our country so that we can be capable of standing on our own two feet and standing up to the Americans where and when necessary."
Poilievre also teased Sunday that he would lower taxes, although didn't provide details about what his proposal will entail.
Carney, Poilievre running in adjacent ridings
Carney won the Liberal leadership just two weeks ago. He announced Sunday he will run for a seat in the Ottawa riding of Nepean, which runs adjacent to Poilievre's Carleton riding.
As the former governor of the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years, his campaign will likely touch on his background steering major economies during turbulent times.
He leaned on that resumé on Sunday while taking a swipe at Poilievre.
It's easy to be negative about everything when you've never fixed anything," he said.
"Negativity won't win a trade war. Negativity won't pay the rent or the mortgage. Negativity won't bring down the price of groceries."
Carney is largely untested as a politician and will spend the next few weeks in the harshest spotlight of his career.
Poilievre, who has served as an Ottawa MP since 2004 and won the Conservative leadership in 2022, has been waiting for this moment for years.
Known for his combative style of politics, Poilievre's mantra has been to fix a "broken" Canada — accusing the Liberals of leading the country down a road of "chaos" and crime.
Speaking to media on Sunday morning, Poilievre said he plans to restore the promise of Canada, unleash the country's natural resources and take on affordability issues.
Part of Poilievre's strategy since even before Carney locked up the Liberal leadership has been to link him to Trudeau, suggesting the former central banker doesn't represent real change.
"After the lost Liberal decade, the question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term," he said.
After launching his campaign, Poilievre travelled to suburban Toronto for a rally Sunday evening, where people lined up around the building to hear the leader speak.
During Trudeau's final years, Poilievre was keen for what he called a carbon tax election and promised to dump the controversial environmental policy for consumers.
Carney largely removed that point of attack when he signed a prime ministerial directive instructing that the fuel charge for consumers end April 1. But Poilievre continues to resurrect the issue, alleging Sunday that Carney would bring the tax back if elected.
Singh running 3rd campaign
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is looking to attract progressive voters as Carney's Liberals move to the centre, but so far the polls suggest that isn't bearing out.
Singh, kicking off his third election as leader, spoke to the NDP's values at his campaign launch in an Ottawa hotel.
"We believe that whoever you are, whether you were born here or you came here, whatever the colour of your skin, whoever you love or what pronouns you use, however you worship or what you believe, you belong," he said.
Singh accused both Carney and Poilievre of promoting policies over the years that have benefited the ultra rich while promising to support workers and families during economic turbulence.
"I won't let anyone in this election tell Canadians that the only way to beat Donald Trump is to become more like his version of the United States," he said.
Despite the devastating polling so far, the NDP said its fundraising is up and announced Sunday that for the "first time in a decade, the NDP will spend the maximum allowed under Elections Canada's limits."
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is also entering his third campaign leading the sovereignist party. He dismissed questions about the Liberals' rise in Quebec on Sunday.
"I read Newton. What goes up goes down," he said.
Green Party puts forward a new face
Canadians can expect to see less of longtime Green Party MP and co-leader Elizabeth May.
The party says co-leader Jonathan Pedneault, who doesn't have a seat but is running in the Montreal riding of Outremont, will be the face of the party's national election campaign, including at the debates.
May appeared beside Pedneault Sunday.
"Vote like your future depends on it," she said.
According to the Poll Tracker, the Greens are polling around 3.6 per cent, ahead of Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada which has just over two per cent of support.
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With files from J.P. Tasker, Darren Major and Marina von Stackelberg
