Leaders' debate likely won't influence most people's votes, Vote Compass data suggests
Plurality of those surveyed said debate had no clear winner
Most Vote Compass users who watched Thursday night's federal leaders' debate say it won't or likely won't influence their vote, while a plurality of viewers can't identify a clear winner, according to data from the vote-gauging tool.
The federal party leaders squared off Thursday night in Montreal in the campaign's only English-language debate. The French-language debate was Wednesday.
A total of 38 per cent of those who filled out Vote Compass's survey found it somewhat, very or extremely likely that the English debate will influence how they vote. But a majority — 58 per cent — said it would not at all or not very likely influence their vote.
The findings are based on more than 13,100 users who participated in the Vote Compass survey Thursday and Friday.
With polls showing Liberal Leader Mark Carney as the front-runner this campaign, the other three main party leaders spent much of Thursday's debate with him in their sights.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre argued that Carney's Liberal government would be the same as former prime minister Justin Trudeau's. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh repeatedly said Carney would cut public services such as funding for health care. And Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet questioned Carney about his corporate interests and said he would not stand up for Quebecers.
Despite all those efforts, among a plurality of Vote Compass users, there was no clear winner. Asked to pick who won the debate, 40 per cent of those who responded to the Vote Compass survey could not identify one. Carney was the second-most frequent pick at 34 per cent, followed by Poilievre at 22 per cent.
Poilievre won among male voters, with 30 per cent seeing him as the winner, compared to 29 per cent for Carney. But among women, 38 per cent chose Carney and 16 per cent chose Poilievre.
That backs up polling that has shown a significant gender gap in the parties' support. An Angus Reid Institute poll this week found the Conservatives have gained among male groups and lead among men over 34, but women of all ages favour the Liberals.
Picking the winner fell largely upon partisan lines. But most undecided voters who filled out the Vote Compass survey — 73 per cent — said they could not name a winner.
Speaking at a news conference Friday in Montreal, Poilievre said the debate "confirmed that this election is about change," while adding that the Liberals do not deserve a fourth term in power.
Carney told reporters at an announcement in Niagara Falls, Ont., that he thought the debates were well moderated and featured "an exchange of ideas."
"One would always wish there were a lot more time to fully develop the ideas, but in the constraints of time it was well structured," he said.
With the two debates under their belts, the leaders hit the campaign trail again on Friday. Advance voting also opened on Friday, with reports of long lines at polling stations in cities across Ontario.
Of the parties represented on the debate stage this week, the Bloc was the first to release its costed platform on Friday. Carney said the Liberals will release their fully costed platform on Saturday. Poilievre said earlier this week the Conservatives' would come in the next few days.
The Green Party released its full platform on Thursday.
Election day is April 28.
Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Canada exclusively by Radio Canada/CBC. The findings are based on 13,105 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from April 17, 2025 to April 18, 2025.
Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data are a non-random sample from the population and have been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample. Vote Compass data have been weighted by gender, age, education, region, language spoken in the home, and partisanship to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the voting-eligible population of Canada according to census data and electoral data.
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