Transition process to replace Justin Trudeau is quietly underway
Swearing-in date unclear, but work done now will speed up the timeline
Far from the political spotlight and prying eyes, the process has already begun.
When the next Liberal leader is announced on March 9, it will mark the end of the leadership campaign triggered by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to resign.
However, experts say the process to transition to the next prime minister begins well before that day. Before any new Liberal leader decides to plunge Canada into an early federal election, there are legal and technical steps they must first take.
David Zussman, who worked on former prime minister Jean Chrétien's transition team, said there are "a huge number of really important elements in the transition" that require advance planning.
Zussman says his experience has taught him that governments who plan their transition in advance have "good starts to their governing … as opposed to the situation where they are sworn in and they don't know what to do next."
Spokespeople for front-runner Mark Carney and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland's campaigns are being tight-lipped — both simply saying their candidate will be ready to lead on day one and refusing to reveal who may be working on transition teams.
The Liberal Party says it is working with the campaign directors of all the candidates on the transition to becoming party leader, preparing for the next election and key decisions involving the party that will have to be made in the first hours and days after the leader is chosen.
A spokesperson for the Privy Council Office (PCO), which oversees the federal government as well as serves cabinet and the Prime Minister's Office, says a candidate identifying transition team members early can help "ensure they are prepared to assume office in a timely manner."
Given that the winner will inherit a minority government with an Official Opposition that has vowed to force an election once Parliament resumes sitting, experts say it is all the more important for the leading candidates to have chosen a transition team and be sketching out plans for the first days and weeks.
"The public service has done this 13 times in 40 years," said Michael Wernick, former clerk of the Privy Council. "It's experienced at it. Each one presents a slightly different set of issues. The advantage in this scenario, where you have succession within the same party, is that you can rely on a certain amount of continuity."
Wernick said the transition from former prime minister Stephen Harper's government to Trudeau's took 16 days.
"The ability for Carney or Freeland or whoever to do that this time depends on their transition team and how many decisions they've made in advance," he said.
Cabinet changes should be top of mind
Experts say one of the key questions for a transition team to consider is the structure and size of the next cabinet and who should be part of it. In this case, there are existing Liberal cabinet ministers and political staffers to choose from who have already been vetted and whose ethics filings are up to date.
However, if the new leader wants to bring in new blood, Wernick said the transition team can start vetting them now.
He said security screening in the public service can take "an eternity."
Wernick said vetting would likely include a thorough review of a prospective cabinet minister's social media history, in addition to police checks and reviews of any debts or conflicts of interest.
Zussman said the transition team could also now flesh out an organizational chart with the names of potential members of the prime minister's staff.
"This is a complicated business for the simple reason that a lot of the people that will get you elected are not necessarily the same people that would help you govern," he said.
Meanwhile, the public service does its own work on the transition, preparing briefings for the incoming prime minister and cabinet ministers, including lists of decisions that ministers will have to make shortly after they are sworn in, and calendars of upcoming events.
Teams can consult with public service
Elizabeth Roscoe, executive vice-president at Rubicon Strategy, worked on the transition teams for Harper and Brian Mulroney. She said deputy ministers update briefing documents on a regular basis, particularly in a minority government.
"Deputies would have what I would call evergreen briefing binders for an incoming government and ministers and PCO would be responsible for the ministers' briefing binders," she said.
It helps for the transition teams to begin talks with the public service before the vote, said Zussman.
"We have a long tradition in Canada, even for the opposition parties, to have conversations with the Privy Council in advance of an election to signal, again, what their interests are, what their intentions are, so that the public service can be ready to welcome a new government."
For example, if an incoming prime minister's transition team says it wants to create a new cabinet portfolio, the public service can draft the necessary documents in advance to create that department
Resignation date unclear
Once the new Liberal leader is chosen, how long it takes for them to be sworn in will depend in part on how long it takes Trudeau to formally resign.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Trudeau said he and the next leader will discuss when the transfer of power will take place, but did not provide a timeline.
"That will be up to a conversation between the new leader and myself to figure out how long a transition is needed," he said. "It should happen reasonably quickly but there are a lot of things to do in a transition like this, particularly at this complicated time in the world."
Once the date is set, Trudeau will have to meet with the Governor General, tender his resignation and ask her to invite the new Liberal leader to form government.
Roscoe said one of the first things that will dominate the prime minister-designate's time in office will be fielding phone calls from world leaders.
"Undoubtedly, they'll want to have a really good call with the president on the night of [March 9], and as well others — from France, the U.K., right around the globe, foreign dignitaries will want to congratulate the incoming prime minister," she said.
Spokesman Donald Savoie said after the vote, the Privy Council will work on the steps needed to assemble the new cabinet "which involves determining its size, structure, portfolio responsibilities and assignments" including any necessary orders in council.
Savoie said the structure for cabinet committees has to be set up, acting ministers have to be designated and by convention the outgoing and incoming prime ministers agree on how to manage the cabinet confidences of the outgoing ministry.
The new Liberal leader will also have to start having conversations with those who will be part of their cabinet, outlining what the leader wants them to achieve.
After the swearing-in ceremony and the family photo, the next prime minister will have to move quickly and likely have to meet with Canada's premiers, said Roscoe.
"Even though this has been a very quick leadership contest, there's a huge requirement, as we can see in the public domain, for action, both in relation to taking control and working with the premiers."
Zussman said it will be important for the new prime minister to focus on three or four things they really want to accomplish in the short term.
"You have to be very bloody minded in the end," he said. "Here's what I really want to do."
Roscoe recommended the new prime minister be judicious in making appointments and not recreate the situation former prime minister John Turner found himself in after he agreed to more than 200 patronage appointments on behalf of outgoing prime minister Pierre Trudeau — a decision that dogged Turner during the 1984 election campaign.
While Parliament is scheduled to resume sitting on March 24, Roscoe said the new leader may want to trigger an election sooner rather than later, before the Conservative Party can use the $41.7 million it received in contributions in 2024 to define them.
Depending on that decision, the timing of the next election and the result, transition teams could be doing it all over again a few weeks or months from now.
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