Canada election: Full voting results expected this afternoon with key races still too close to call

I’m Matt Lapierre reporting from Montreal.

Quebec Premier François Legault struck an optimistic tone today after Carney’s Liberals won at least 42 seats in Quebec, the party’s strongest showing in the province in decades.

Legault stressed that the federal and provincial governments need to work together in coming trade negotiations with the United States.

“We need to work hard, Ottawa and Quebec, to protect businesses, to protect jobs, and I’m happy also that during the campaign, Carney promised not to compromise on Quebec’s interests,” he said.

Legault said he was happy that Canada had a prime minister with an economic background, saying Carney — a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England — had impressed him in their encounters. He said they shared a desire to invest in the development of clean energy, critical minerals and artificial intelligence.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is speaking in Regina, where he had a message for the prime minister.

“While you had very strong support in some parts of Canada, there are many Canadians — including most of us in Saskatchewan — who voted for a degree of change,” said Moe.

“Now, it’s up to you to show that you have heard that message and to deliver change.”

Moe, who supported Poilievre in the federal race, said it was “great to hear” Carney say last night that he wants to work with Saskatchewan and Alberta, and turn Canada into a global energy superpower.

“But those are nothing but words,” he added. Some federal policies “are simply going to need to change in order to achieve that goal.”

Like other Canadian leaders, Moe ultimately stressed unity. “What does Saskatchewan bring to the table? A willingness to work with the federal government.”

Carney spoke today with French President Emmanuel Macron, who called it an “excellent discussion.”

“I congratulated him on his election, and we reviewed the joint projects between Canada and France, as well as the challenges ahead of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis this June,” Macron wrote on social media.

Other world leaders have also congratulated Carney, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and former U.S. president Joe Biden.

Hi, I’m Evan Mitsui, a photojournalist with CBC.

Gayle Furr, 65 and Robin Lee Alkenbrack, 63, are a semi-retired couple in Napanee, Ont. We connected on a story about food insecurity and have stayed in touch. They’re a split household when it comes to politics — Robin trending Conservative and Gayle NDP/Liberal — and, when we spoke on Sunday on my drive to Ottawa, they predicted the outcome we are seeing play out today.

The incumbent in their riding, Conservative Shelby Kramp-Newman, is projected to win for the third time. Robin (who has voted Conservative his whole life save for that one time he sided with Bob Rae) voted early and for Kramp-Newman.

Gayle, who likes Kramp-Newman and had a lengthy chat with her in their living room, voted for Liberal Tracey Sweeney Schenk because she couldn’t get behind Poilievre. Both Gayle and Robin agree that the Conservative leader, who is projected to lose his seat, needs to step aside so the party can return to a more centrist place under new leadership.

The couple have medical bills and, after groceries and gas, have to supplement their pension and disability earnings by driving cab and doing clerical work. They heat with propane and have a septic system — and they cite the carbon tax as the single biggest worry they have heading into this fourth Liberal government.

“If [the carbon tax] comes back in any form,” Gayle said, they’re in trouble. They both agree that Trump, and how the Carney government handles the trade war, will be the defining issue of these initial days.

The prime minister briefly stopped to speak with reporters today. Asked when he’d speak to Donald Trump, and if he’d call a byelection so that Poilievre could run for a seat in Parliament, he was vague.

“We’ll see,” he said to both questions. On the second, he said that the results are still coming in.

As Carney walked up the steps to his office, a reporter asked how his night was.

“It was fun. Not a lot of sleep!”

B.C. Premier David Eby congratulated Carney and outlined a few issues he hopes the prime minister will address, post-election.

Those include getting rid of Canada’s interprovincial trade barriers, which Eby called a “critical priority,” as well as supporting industries and workers impacted by the global trade war, and highlighting B.C.’s role in diversifying Canada’s economy.

Eby, who leads B.C.’s provincial NDP, said he does not have any interest in leading the federal party now that Singh has stepped down. Eby said he hopes whoever steps up is committed to rebuilding the party and bringing Canadians together.

“It was a tough night for our federal cousins. There’s no question about it,” he said.

“What I’m hearing from British Columbians is they are all in for Canada.”

There is one lone Liberal from Saskatchewan heading to Ottawa, with Buckley Belanger projected to win the large northern riding Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, my colleague Jeremy Warren is reporting.

Conservatives won the 13 other ridings without much competition. The NDP ran third in every riding in what was a “really bad night” for the party, said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

Outside of the cities and the northern riding, Conservatives won handily in most other constituencies. Conservative candidates won by more than 75 per cent in five ridings, including Souris-Moose Mountain, which had the largest margin of victory in the province at 83.9 per cent, as of this morning.

Strategic voting was a hot topic this election. It factored into the final results nationally, if not making much of an impact in Saskatchewan — though it likely contributed to the collapse of the NDP vote in some ridings in the province, Westlake said.

"Some of that was strategic voting, some of that was about who was going to deal better with Donald Trump," he said. "It was very clear that the NDP were not going to be elected and so the answer to that question was not Jagmeet Singh."

Poilievre led the party to gains in areas where the party has struggled in recent federal elections. Notably, the Liberals pulled in roughly 49 per cent of the vote counted so far compared to about 45 per cent for the Conservatives — big improvements for both parties after the NDP vote collapsed.

As Mike Crawley noted earlier, the Conservatives picked up seats in Toronto's suburban 905 region. Party sources say Poilievre's tough-on-crime message had a particular appeal in areas where violent crimes and property crimes have been a major concern.

Poilievre's effort to court blue-collar workers, particularly those in private sector unions, also paid off with a strong Conservative showing in industrial areas like Ontario's Niagara region and southwestern Ontario locales like London and Windsor.

The party outperformed in some areas of Atlantic Canada, picking up a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador, and benefited from progressive vote splits in B.C.

Poilievre also held off a meaningful Liberal breakthrough in urban Alberta and Saskatchewan, although Carney, the party's first western leader in a generation, delivered relatively respectable results in the West — particularly in B.C.'s Lower Mainland.

But Poilievre lost his own Ottawa-area seat of Carleton — a shocking result given he's held that riding for more than 20 years through successive political waves. It's that loss in particular that makes his future so uncertain. He has huge party support but he will have to prosecute the Liberals from outside the House of Commons, at least for now.

Good morning! I'm a senior reporter in the CBC Parliamentary Bureau who has been covering the Conservatives throughout this campaign.

Poilievre delivered mixed results for his party in Monday's election, boosting the Conservative vote share to a generational high with breakthroughs among new voting blocs, while at the same time failing to unseat Carney and the Liberals from government — and losing his own seat.

Poilievre vowed to stay on as party leader despite the disappointing final result, telling his supporters in his election speech that he needs more time to drive a stake through the Liberals once and for all.

But some Conservatives tell me Poilievre's future is yet to be determined, given the Liberals will live on to see another day and victory slipped through his hands.

"This is a big loss to a tired government that's been in power for 10 years," said one senior Conservative source who worked for Poilievre in the past.

"The guy couldn't do what needed to be done. He utterly refused to acknowledge that the ballot box question had changed to the bitter end," the source said, referencing the U.S. trade war.

Elections Canada says it expects to have all the results in by this afternoon.

It’s still too soon for CBC’s Decision Desk to project whether the Liberals will form a minority or majority government.