A lot can happen in a year, and this year it did

This article is part of the Minority Report newsletter, which is your weekly tip-sheet from CBC News to help you navigate the parliamentary waters of a minority government. Sign up here and it will be delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.

One year ago, life was very different. 

I lived downtown in a tiny condo, had a boyfriend I loved - but no wedding ring - and relied on public transit to get me around. 

Fast-forward a year, I'm married to him, have two step kids (odds of dying alone have decreased), live in the boonies in a new house and commute to work behind the wheel of a car (traffic sucks as much as I thought it would).

"Who cares," is what I'm sure you're asking yourself right now. 

The answer is nobody. But my point is things can radically change over twelve months. 

Just think back to December of 2018. Back to the days when Andrew Scheer was still leader of the Conservative Party, Jody Wilson Raybould was justice minister and attorney general and images of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in India were the most embarrassing photos of Trudeau, most thought, were out there. 

We had no idea what was to come. That Andrew Scheer would lose the election and resign, or even that the Conservative Party was paying for his kids' private school. Gerry Butts was still the prime minister's principal secretary a year ago. We didn't know that Wilson-Raybould would accuse the prime minister of pressuring her to intervene in a criminal case implicating his entire office in what became known as the SNC Lavalin affair. 

So what could the next year bring? On the surface, at least, the possibility for wild times are even greater in 2020. Until October, the Liberals had a majority mandate and with that comes some stability. Yes, controversies can clearly still break out, but the business of a majority government is usually pretty steady. 

Not anymore. As fast as I became a godforsaken commuter, the party in power in a minority can lose that power. This minority is a strong one - the Liberals are just 13 seats shy of a majority of seats in the House of Commons; still, the possibility of a confidence vote always exists - hanging over Parliament like that new mortgage hangs around my neck.

There's a few reasons - at least in the first six months of next year - why Parliament won't likely fall anytime soon. The big one being the other parties are not even close to being ready for an election. Especially after this past week.

The Conservatives will have a leadership election in 2020, just three years after the last one, and we have no idea who will win. The Conservatives share of the vote in the federal election increased, and so did their seats, yet, even with the SNC-Lavalin affair fresh in voters' minds and pictures surfacing of the prime minister in blackface - the Tories didn't win the election. 

At first, Andrew Scheer tried to say his party's electoral shortcomings could be blamed on communications issues, yet, he appeared to admit it was more than that when he stepped down Thursday. The party will also be dealing with its own internal battles after it was revealed Scheer struck a deal to use party funds to pay for his kids' private school (side note: this is not going over well with party members, even those who like and/or worked for Scheer. One former aide even called it 'disgusting' in a text). 

The NDP are one up on the Conservatives in that they have a leader, but one down in that they don't have enough money to pay for anyone's private school. 2020 will offer New Democrats the chance to position themselves in the House of Commons and rebuild a depleted war chest. 

Like the Conservatives, the Greens will also have to pick a new leader, after Elizabeth May announced she was stepping down shortly after the election. The Bloc Québécois have a leader but they've been pretty clear an election is not something they want in the near future. 

So the year ahead will probably not feature an election, but my guess is there'll still be some drama. We just don't know what kind. That's the beauty of life - and politics: a lot can happen in a year (she says as she sits in commuter traffic).

This is just one part of the Minority Report newsletter. In this week's issue, Éric Grenier looks at how long leadership races are during minority Parliaments. Plus, the Power Panel gives its advice on what the parties should be doing in the week ahead, and we profile new Conservative MP Eric Melillo. To read all of that and more sign up for the newsletter here and it will be delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.