The path to government on Oct. 21 begins on East Coast

Vote-rich urban areas such as Ontario's 416/905 region and British Columbia's Lower Mainland tend to dominate campaign coverage, but there is also a battle brewing on Canada's East Coast.

The first sign of which party has the best chance of forming the next government on Oct. 21 will come from Atlantic Canada, where a surging red tide in 2015 saw Justin Trudeau's Liberals win all 32 seats, including the 10 in New Brunswick.

Conservative candidate Rob Moore said he believes his party is poised to make gains in 2019.

"The Liberals are not going to win all 32 seats this time, let's put it that way," said Moore, who is running in New Brunswick's Fundy Royal riding.

As one of three Harper-era MPs who are trying to win back seats lost in 2015 in neighbouring ridings across the southern part of the province, Moore says the path to power in Atlantic Canada is all about the economy.

"People are going to go where there's economic opportunity," he said in an interview with CBC Radio's The House at his campaign office in Quispamsis, N.B., about 15 kilometres northeast of Saint John.

"We have a government in Ottawa, the Liberal Trudeau government, that's standing in the way of economic growth and seems to have done everything possible to put a wet blanket over our New Brunswick economy, principally with the cancellation of Energy East and now with the carbon tax," Moore said.

In 2017, TransCanada abandoned plans to build the Energy East pipeline to carry heavy oil from Alberta to an export terminal in Saint John. The company cited new federal emissions standards in the regulatory review of the project.

But Moore's Conservatives aren't the only party hoping to change the colour of New Brunswick's electoral map this year.

Five of the six federal party leaders have visited the province during the campaign (Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is the exception).

Greens aim to capitalize on provincial success

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is keen to build on the success of the provincial Green party, which won three seats in a New Brunswick provincial election earlier this year, including one in Fredericton held by provincial Green leader David Coon.

"I'm very proud of our platform. It provides solutions across the whole range of things that are on the minds of Canadians," May said Monday during a campaign stop in the provincial capital.

Jenica Atwin, the party's candidate in Fredericton, said she hopes to be part of a Green caucus in Ottawa that will hold the balance of power in a minority government.

"The Greens aren't going to form government Oct. 21," she said. "We are hoping to hold enough seats that we can make a difference and hold whichever government is in power accountable on these key issues."

But Atwin's got her work cut out for her in Fredericton, where Liberal incumbent Matt DeCourcey won almost half the vote in 2015.

"I think people understand just how important the choice is this time," he said from his campaign office in downtown Fredericton.

DeCourcey says the Liberal campaign platform is a "practical plan" to support the middle class, seniors and post-secondary students — a key demographic in a city with two universities.

But even he acknowledges a sense of apprehension or uncertainty among voters who feel like they just can't get ahead.

"I think people understand that, even in a time of uncertainty, they have a party and a government that is implementing programs and opportunities that can help them with the skills training and the opportunities to participate fully in community," he said.

Elsewhere in the province, Ginette Petitpas-Taylor, who was health minister at the time of dissolution, is seeking re-election in a Moncton-area riding, while longtime MP Dominic LeBlanc is running again in Beausejour, despite stepping back from his cabinet duties earlier this year to undergo treatment for cancer. 

NDP's Singh 'sorry I didn't get here earlier'

.Meanwhile, the NDP faces an uphill battle in New Brunswick.

Even before the campaign officially kicked off earlier this month, there were reports 14 former New Democrat candidates from the last provincial election had jumped ship to the Greens because they were unhappy with Jagmeet Singh's lack of focus on Atlantic Canada.

There was also a suggestion made by Jonathan Richardson, a former federal NDP executive member who also quit the party, that racism might be undermining support for Singh, who is Sikh.

The NDP, however, claimed five of the members alleged to have left for the Greens did no such thing.

Nevertheless, Singh faced criticism for not stepping foot in the province since he became NDP leader in 2017.

Singh addressed that during a campaign stop this week in the northern New Brunswick riding of Acadie-Bathurst, which Yvon Godin held for the NDP for 18 years. He apologized to party supporters.

"I'm sorry that I didn't get here earlier. I'm honoured to be here," Singh said. "It's a beautiful place."