Trudeau heads to Southeast Asia as Israel-Hamas war promises to overshadow trade talks
One expert observer says Canada and other western nations have taken a 'reputational hit' in the region
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to Laos this week to advance trade and political ties in the region as violence in the Middle East dominates public opinion in Southeast Asia.
Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said Canada and other western nations have taken a "reputational hit" in Muslim-majority countries — including Indonesia and Malaysia, where public opinion tends to support the Palestinian side and oppose Israel.
Trudeau has a chance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit from Oct. 10-11 to counter claims western countries are indifferent to the "suffering in Gaza," Nadjibulla said.
"What's important is to remind everyone that we care about human rights, we care about resolving conflicts everywhere in the world, not just in certain locations, in order to be able to counter this charge of hypocrisy," Nadjibulla said.
Claims that the nations of the West — and the U.S. in particular — are taking a hypocritical approach to the Israel-Hamas war are "overblown," she said, and are being driven by Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns.
"The claim is that essentially we care more about the suffering in Ukraine because it's in Europe than we do when it's suffering in Africa or the Middle East or elsewhere," Nadjibulla said. "It's just this charge that basically not all human rights are being treated as equal."
Trudeau's efforts to navigate these tensions will be watched closely at the summit, she said.
After his first official visit to Laos, Trudeau is scheduled to fly to a U.S. air base in Germany for a meeting hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden to "reaffirm global solidarity" with Ukraine in its fight against Russia, a statement from the prime minister's office said.
The ASEAN was formed in 1967 to accelerate economic growth and promote peace and stability in the region. The ASEAN is composed of 10 member countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia.
This year's ASEAN summit is unfolding a year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the deadliest assault in Israel's history, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostage, according to Israeli accounts.
Workers from some countries including Thailand were killed by Hamas during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, while others were taken hostage.
ASEAN countries have differing approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict overall, but voted collectively for a UN resolution last month calling for an end to Israel's occupation of "Palestinian territory" within a year.
Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, has condemned Israel's attacks on Gaza. Brunei and Laos have also expressed solidarity with Palestinians.
Kai Ostwald, HSBC chair in Asian Research and associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said Malaysia — which will chair the ASEAN next year — has been "very vocal" about the Israel-Hamas war and the recent escalation in Lebanon. In August, Malaysia accused the "international community" of standing idle "when the Israeli occupying force continues killing women, children and the elderly, without consequences."
"So it will certainly use the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit as a platform to raise global concerns and call for solidarity in addressing that issue," Ostwald said.
"By contrast, Singapore, which is squeezed between Malaysia and Indonesia, has close historic ties to Israel," Ostwald said. "There's a risk that Gaza becomes a larger wedge for the region."
'We are on the knife's edge right now'
Canada has tried to walk a fine line on the conflict. The federal government has said it supports both Israel's right to protect itself and the Palestinian right to self-determination, and backs the creation of a Palestinian state. Canada is also calling for a ceasefire, more humanitarian aid for Gaza and the return of hostages to Israel.
Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy adviser, said that if "this tit-for-tat exchange between Iran and Iranian proxies in Israel continues to escalate," the conflict in the Middle East could get a lot of attention at the ASEAN summit.
"We are on the knife's edge right now, and we are closer to a big regional war in the Middle East than I think that we've been in decades," said Paris, now the director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.
While the conflict could overshadow the ASEAN agenda, Canada's focus at this summit will be on expanding its trade with one of the fastest-growing economic regions in the world, Paris said.
ASEAN nations collectively make up the fifth-largest economy in the world, with a combined GDP of $3.8 trillion US.
After decades of sporadic engagement with the region, Canada is now a "strategic partner" with ASEAN — the highest tier of recognition for non-member countries. One of Canada's main goals at the summit is to finalize trade agreements in the region.
Indonesia, the largest economy in the bloc, has committed to signing a deal with Canada by the end of 2024. Ottawa is also aiming to close a separate free trade agreement with ASEAN as a whole by 2025.
Although those deals aren't expected to close at the ASEAN summit, a senior government official said Canada is looking to conclude free trade negotiations with Indonesia by the end of November. CBC News is not identifying the source because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
But Canada is in competition with other countries, notably China, ASEAN's biggest trading partner. China recently financed a railway through Laos that opened in 2021 and continues to build infrastructure throughout Southeast Asia.
The ASEAN countries are trying to become less dependent on China and de-risk their supply chains, Paris said. Canada can signal it's open for business and offer ASEAN nations access to the North American market, he added.
"The presence of the prime minister is an on-the-ground demonstration of Canada's seriousness about building relationships, which are a precondition for expanding the trade relationship," Paris said.
Nadjibulla said that Trudeau will also be expected to engage with ASEAN nations on other areas where they can collaborate, including climate change, cyber security and maritime security.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
