Trudeau hopes a 'silent majority' is still willing to listen
The prime minister casts an eye beyond his flag-waving critics
He surely would reject any such comparison but, in a recent interview, Justin Trudeau briefly sounded just a little bit like Richard Nixon.
Taking part in an conversation with Village Media, the prime minister fielded questions about the dissent within his caucus and his party's descent in the polls. He was also asked about the "F--k Trudeau" flags that have — as much as any policy or political gesture — come to define this Liberal government's third term.
One of the interviewers remarked that he couldn't remember similar flags being flown for Stephen Harper or Jean Chretien. The unhappiness, he said, seemed "personal."
Trudeau said his first response when encountering such displays was to wonder what had driven people to a "place of that much anger." He also said such protests are being amplified by media outlets and social media platforms that elevate "really aggressive negative views."
"The problem is right now that there is a silent majority that is a little bit silent, and maybe wondering whether it's actually a minority. And you got a lot of good, thoughtful people saying, you know, 'I don't have anything personal against the leader, but everyone seems to hate him because I see all these flags and therefore, you know, he must be on his way out or he must be unpopular,'" Trudeau told Village Media.
"And what I am continually reminded of when I have real conversations with people, whether it's in a lunchroom at a plant, or whether it's mainstreeting [in] a small town or sitting in a university classroom in the middle of a big city, is people are thoughtful. People are interested and people are open to having real discussions about the challenges we're facing."
While Nixon, the 37th president of the United States, didn't coin the phrase, he did popularize the notion of a "silent majority" in a televised address about the war in Vietnam in 1969. Those words conjured up an image of a mass of voters who could not be heard over the din of the protesters and activists clamouring for political and social change.
The "silent majority" became a populist, reactionary rallying cry. It was also deeply divisive. In Nixon's presidency, one can find the beginnings of the cracks that now define American politics (see Rick Perlstein's Nixonland).
For Trudeau, this appeal to the silent majority might merely reflect a lingering belief (or hope) that the flags don't express the feelings of most Canadians — that a sizeable number are still open to a conversation about the future of this country and to being persuaded to vote for a Liberal candidate.
Trudeau must also still believe that a quiet majority of his caucus is willing to support him, or is at least unwilling to move decisively against him.
A very Canadian coup
By not entertaining a secret ballot vote on his leadership, Trudeau appears to be refusing to test that belief. But he's also essentially calling the dissenters on their initial bet. If a meaningful number of Liberals are actually eager to see him deposed — or to just put it to a vote — they're going to need to step forward and say so. Passive aggression isn't going to dislodge him.
Thirteen Liberal MPs have so far called for a secret ballot. That number could grow. But a week after a dramatic caucus meeting in which Trudeau was told that at least two dozen MPs wanted him to step aside, the rebels seem to have achieved the worst of both worlds: Trudeau is still the leader of their party, but he's also now a little bit weaker than he was a few weeks ago.
The dissenters might at least have helped push their party to adopt (belatedly) the sharper tone that has been on display over the past week.
"I think we have sort of brought a knife to a gun fight so far in how we're approaching advertising and how we're approaching the campaign in general," Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith said Wednesday.
Erskine-Smith had just come from a caucus meeting where Andrew Bevan, the Liberal campaign director, screened ads being prepared for release in the days ahead. The first such ad appeared online Thursday and was focused on the government's record on health care. It was notable for what it didn't emphasize: while images of Trudeau appear in the background of the ad, he doesn't narrate, his name is not spoken and credit is given to the "Liberal team."
Even if the ads don't move a single vote, their mere existence might provide some comfort to Liberal MPs.
Can Trudeau connect the dots?
Any leader contesting a fourth election would be forced to contend with some level of antipathy; the Liberals are hardly the first party to confront that fact. In 2015, the Conservative Party ran an ad in which a woman conceded that Stephen Harper "isn't perfect."
Because so much of Trudeau's ascent and victory in 2015 was wrapped up in who he was and what he represented — the force of his personality and that name — it's not surprising that the backlash is so personal. But even if the flag-wavers are still in the minority, the available evidence suggests that fatigue with the prime minister is widespread. The latest survey from Abacus Data suggests just 23 per cent of Canadians have a positive impression of Trudeau, while 60 per cent take a negative view.
In an analysis piece published in July, Abacus's David Coletto argued that Trudeau's best hope of regaining ground was to focus on a block of voters who said they were "disappointed" in some of the things he has done. Coletto suggested that would require acknowledging that disappointment (perhaps the Liberals could run an ad admitting that Trudeau isn't perfect).
An Angus Reid Institute poll published this week suggested that up to 55 per cent of Canadians would at least consider voting Liberal in the next election (roughly in line with the share that would consider voting for the Conservatives or NDP). Astute observers will note that just 19 per cent of respondents are currently supporting the governing party.
In his interview with Village Media, when asked about his party's polling numbers, Trudeau harkened back to 2015 when the Liberals entered the campaign in third place. He conceded that Canadians "were in a place of much more natural optimism in 2015" and he gave Pierre Poilievre a backhanded compliment when he cited the Conservative leader's ability to capture and direct the public's disenchantment. It's the ability to propose solutions that matters, Trudeau said repeatedly.
But Trudeau ultimately fell back on the idea that the next election will be a choice — and on the belief that Canadians haven't started to think about that choice yet.
"No matter how much I talk about, you know, a million Canadians having accessed dental care, no matter how much we point out all the electric vehicles that are rolling off assembly lines in Canada, particularly in Ontario," Trudeau said. "People still haven't sort of connected those dots in a way that says, 'OK, what do I risk losing in the next election? What do I have the potential to win and to gain in the next election?'"
Trudeau might want to ask himself why his government hasn't gotten more credit for those dots, and why members of his own caucus felt they should publicly express their doubts about his ability to reconnect with voters.
Trudeau seems to be betting that once voters connect the dots, they'll be able to see that he — or at least the "Liberal team" — is still the best choice. Technically, he doesn't even need a majority of Canadians, silent or otherwise, to decide that.
The risk for Trudeau and the Liberal Party is that the leader and team that put the Liberals in this hole may not be equipped to get them out of it. While there may be a silent majority beyond the waving flags, too many voters may be unable to look past their unhappiness with Trudeau to look at the dots he's trying to make them see.
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