With Trump's return, another wave of uncertainty washes over Canadian politics
His last administration had Ottawa scrambling — his return could be even more challenging
For Canadians, American democracy is a spectator sport, a source of eternal concern and a measuring stick — a spectacle we regard with a mix of fascination, inspiration, fear and powerlessness, all the while defining ourselves by how we compare.
The United States is both our loud neighbour and — by orders of magnitude — our most valuable trading partner. But living beside (and under the umbrella of) the world's most powerful democracy has also brought with it a certain peace of mind. At least, until recently.
Now, once again, Canada is forced to confront the profound uncertainty that comes with living beside, and being so deeply entwined with, a country whose highest elected office will soon be held by Donald J. Trump.
The election of Trump in 2016 was a shock. It upended assumptions about what could be taken for granted in American politics and the global order. And the four years that followed were tense and unpredictable, raising unforeseen challenges and incredible distractions for Canadian leaders.
Almost immediately after the 2016 result, Justin Trudeau's government scrambled to respond to his desire to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement — a drama that took more than a year to resolve. As the United States moved to crack down on immigration, individuals and families started crossing into Canada at Roxham Road.
Just before Canada Day in 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, initiating a trade war that lasted into 2019. The G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended in acrimony and threatening tweets.
"It is as difficult a moment as we have ever faced as a country," Bob Rae, now Canada's ambassador to the United Nations, wrote in the summer of 2018.
Beyond the most direct causes for concern, Trudeau and his ministers were regularly asked (or compelled) to respond to events south of the border: Trump's decision to pull the United States out of international climate accords, the Trump administration's policy of separating migrant children from their parents, and the use of police and military force against protesters (which famously left Trudeau speechless for 21 seconds before he offered a relatively diplomatic response).
Joe Biden's election in 2020 offered some relief. It held out the promise of a return to normalcy. And it left open the possibility that Trump's four years in office were an aberration.
That was always wishful thinking. But Tuesday night's result was unavoidable proof that the election of Donald Trump to the office of president of the United States was neither a fluke nor a fleeting phenomenon.
What will the next four years bring?
If anything, the next four years threaten to be more disruptive and unnerving than the first four. Canadian officials can draw on the experience of what happened and how this country responded between 2016 and 2020, but the challenges could be more severe and Trump's actions more dramatic.
The Trump administration may seek to revisit NAFTA. But even if NAFTA is left alone, there is the threat of a global import tariff that would not only damage Canada's economy but could roil the global economy.
If Trump moves forward with mass deportations of immigrants from the United States, his actions could send people scrambling toward Canada in search of safety. The future of the NATO security alliance is now uncertain and the Canadian government will face renewed pressure to quickly increase military spending.
The consequences for Ukraine could be much more significant.
The United States presumably will be much less interested in contributing to international efforts to combat climate change, which could make it that much harder for Canadian leaders to act. Large tax cuts by the U.S. federal government could force Canadian governments to follow suit for fear of becoming uncompetitive.
All of these things might somehow be managed. On Wednesday, Canadian officials projected calm and resolve. But even if the disruptions and damage can be mitigated, a Trump presidency likely will consume great energy and put real strain on Canadian governments and citizens.
And then there are the deeper questions about the future of American democracy.
Americans put their nation on a 'precarious course'
"American voters have made the choice to return Donald Trump to the White House, setting the nation on a precarious course that no one can fully foresee," the New York Times editorial board wrote on Tuesday morning.
Trump tried to overturn the result of the last presidential election and incited a mob that launched a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol. He is a convicted felon who has been indicted on multiple other charges. He has mused about punishing those who criticise and oppose him.
He may replace civil servants in the U.S. government with loyalists and further centralize his power. The former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, reportedly believes Trump to be a fascist — an opinion apparently shared by one of Trump's former chiefs of staff.
What will it mean for Canada and Canadians if American democracy slips further, even precipitously, into dysfunction and disrepair?
- What questions do you have about how a second Trump term will affect Canadians? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.
The national tendency to want to differentiate ourselves from the Americans might reduce the likelihood that our democracy will follow American democracy if our neighbour continues to stray down dark paths. We might have front row seats to a cautionary tale.
But it's notable that support in Canada for Trump has actually increased over the last four years — from 15 per cent in 2020 to 21 per cent when Environics asked Canadians which presidential candidate they preferred in September. A plurality of Conservative Party supporters preferred Trump to Kamala Harris, a shift from when Biden was on the ballot four years ago. Among men aged 18 to 34, support for Harris and Trump was split evenly.
For now, it is enough to say that everything is a little more uncertain — and attention has necessarily shifted southward.
During question period on Wednesday, 27 of the 40 questions asked of the government made some reference to the United States, as the opposition parties sought to capitalize on public interest. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seemed eager to start a debate about who is best suited to deal with the incoming president. That Trump will, in some way, loom over the next federal election seems almost certain.
At her weekly news conference, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland publicly offered congratulations and attempted reassurance.
"Because we live so close to the United States, I know a lot of Canadians were very absorbed in the U.S. election," she said. " I know there are a lot of Canadians who are feeling unsettled today and I want to say to all Canadians that I am absolutely confident that Canada will be prosperous, that Canadians will be safe and that our sovereignty, our sovereign identity will be secure as we work with this newly elected U.S. administration."
Of course, the fact that such reassurances have to be offered now only underlines how much there might be to worry about.
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