Canada considers sending more troops to Europe as threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine persists
Defence minister says enhancing military presence in the region is 'top of my priority list'
With NATO's secretary general now calling the hair-trigger atmosphere in Europe "the new normal," there were signs Thursday the Liberal government is prepared to deploy additional Canadian troops to eastern Europe to shore up NATO defences as the threat of a Russian invasion continues to hang over Ukraine.
Following a two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, the question now seems to be not whether Canada will contribute to a beefed-up NATO presence in the region but rather how and under what conditions.
In a telephone exchange with Canadian journalists from Mons, Belgium, Defence Minister Anita Anand said Thursday the military is examining its "capacity" and ability to sustain multiple commitments of troops, planes and ships in other missions around the world.
Anand indicated Canada is prepared to answer the alliance's call for forces over and above its 500-soldier battlegroup already in Latvia and its commitment of a frigate and a flight of CF-18 fighter jets, which have rotated in and out of Europe.
"Enhancing our presence in NATO's eastern flank, and in particular with regard to Operation Reassurance [Canada's NATO military deterrence mission in eastern Europe] is at the very top of my priority list," Anand said.
"The issue is for the Canadian Armed Forces ... how Canada can reinforce its presence in the region from an operational standpoint. These are conversations I'm having with my chief of the defence staff, with my deputy minister and with the government writ large."
NATO looking to dig in for the long term
With Ukraine still facing a plausible threat of invasion, NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg said member nations' defence ministers turned to the alliance's military commanders this week and asked them for advice on establishing a "longer-term, increased presence in the eastern part of the alliance, including with battlegroups in Romania and other countries in the east, central and southeast part of the alliance."
There is no evidence to suggest Moscow has drawn down its massive military presence on Ukraine's borders, Stoltenberg said.
In fact, he added, intelligence estimates say the opposite is happening — more units are being added to the 150,000 Russian troops already in the region.
Whether Russia invades Ukraine or chooses to hovering menacingly on its borders to extract concessions from the government in Kyiv and from NATO, Stoltenberg said, the world is a more dangerous place now.
"Regrettably, I think what we're seeing now is a new normal for European security," the secretary general said at the conclusion of the defence ministerial meeting on Thursday. "That is why NATO has responded, because we don't have any choice."
Earlier this week, Ottawa relented and joined allies in arming Ukraine to beat back a potential invasion. Although the Trudeau government has issued loans to the Ukrainian government and provided a lot of non-lethal equipment — including flak vests, mine detectors, binoculars and medical kits — it has been criticized for waiting until the eve of a possible invasion to provide weapons.
Weapons still haven't been shipped
"It's very late in the game when an attack is imminent," Fen Osler Hampson, chancellor's professor at Carleton University, told a House of Commons committee on Wednesday.
"If you're providing even small arms, they have to be put on a plane. They have to get there. It's a challenging situation."
The decision, Hampson said, "should have been taken earlier."
Anand confirmed during her media availability that the weapons have not yet been shipped.
"We're moving as quickly as possible," she said, without offering a timeline for their delivery.
The machine guns, carbines and hand pistols Canada is sending to Ukraine were originally purchased for Iraq's Kurdish Peshmerga forces but never delivered. They've been in storage in a Montreal warehouse.
"I rebut the view that Canada's support is less than fulsome," Anand said before listing off the initiatives her government has undertaken. She ended by saying the Ukrainians were "profusely" grateful for the arms announcement made on Monday.
"I think when you look at the totality of the support Canada is offering across the board ... Canada is clearly one of the leading countries supporting Ukraine in its time of need."
On the opening day of the Winter Olympics in Beijing earlier this month, China and Russia declared what they called a "no limits" partnership that will see them back each other in standoffs with Western nations over Ukraine and Taiwan — a sweeping long-term agreement that many observers say challenges the United States, NATO and liberal democracy in general as a model for the world.
Dick Fadden, Canada's former top national security adviser, told the House of Commons defence committee on Wednesday that in the short term, the pact will increase both adversaries' "capacity to create mischief in the Indo-Pacific [region] and in Europe."
Russia may prefer threats to combat, Fadden says
It's an unequal partnership, he added. China possesses more economic and diplomatic clout than Russia. But if the two nations pooled their cyberwar capacities, Fadden said, their partnership could pose a significant threat.
He also suggested that a direct invasion of Ukraine may not be what Moscow has in mind — that Russian troops could simply linger indefinitely on Ukraine's border in a menacing posture to maintain the pressure on Kyiv.
"I for one don't think — and I may be a minority — [that] Russia is going to invade Ukraine in the same way that the Nazis invaded Poland during World War Two," Fadden said.
"I think they're going to continue using a whole variety of devices, and I think that's probably going to be the case with respect to China as well," he added, referring to Beijing's campaign of intimidation against Taiwan.
"They don't want to take over other countries. They want to increase their indirect control in their influence, far beyond what it is now."
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