What's the point of the COP28 climate summit?
Agenda includes 1st global stock-taking of climate action on Paris Agreement goals
The annual United Nations climate summit will start next week in Dubai — a yearly meeting where countries of the world negotiate how, in the words of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, to "prevent dangerous [human] interference with the climate system."
But after nearly three decades of these meetings, do they achieve anything for the climate?
And what would make this one, COP28, a success? Here's a closer look.
What is COP28?
COP stands for Conference of the Parties, where the parties are 197 states and one regional economic organization that have signed the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the parent agreement of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The first COP was in 1995; this is the 28th annual meeting in the COP series. It will take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.
In addition to government representatives, the meetings can be attended by accredited "observer" non-governmental and inter-governmental organizations and media. This year's conference is expected to draw more than 70,000 delegates.
Alongside the conference, as usual, there will be an area called the "green zone," featuring climate-related exhibits and events that are open to businesses and the general public.
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What's the point of COP meetings?
While all the parties signed on to the 1992 framework that aimed to "protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind," the framework didn't say how that would be done.
That's what COP summits have been working on ever since.
According to the UN, the goal of the annual meetings is to determine "ambition and responsibilities, and identify and assess climate measures." In other words, countries are supposed to agree on what to do next to cut the greenhouses gases that are causing climate change.
They also need to adapt to and limit the damage from changes that are already happening, such as hotter weather and more flooding, droughts and wildfires, especially in poorer and more vulnerable parts of the world.
Rishi Bhandary, assistant director of the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Centre, noted that one thing that's particular to COP is that decisions made there require consensus — not a majority vote: "You really need to take every country along."
What's the focus of this particular meeting?
The specific topics that are the focus at each COP are decided ahead of time, Bhandary said. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made note of some in a speech on this past Monday, and other organizations have also listed them as things to watch.
Global stocktake
Every five years, the parties that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement are supposed to "take stock" of the world's progress, including cutting emissions to keep global warming below 2 C above pre-industrial temperatures while "pursuing efforts" to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C.
This year's global stocktake is the first of its kind.
It's something that many people are keeping an eye on, including Jennifer Allan, who reports on climate negotiations for the International Institute for Sustainable Development's Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
The stocktake is supposed to look at "where are we, in terms of reducing emissions and building resilience to climate change and supporting developing countries," she said. Technical fact-finding for the stocktake has taken place over the past year and a half. "Now it's the political outcome."
The goal is to help countries prioritize their climate actions going forward and shape their next climate plan (known as a "nationally determined contribution" or NDC), which needs to be updated every five years.
Guterres put it this way in this week's speech: "The response to the global stocktake must light the fuse to an explosion of ambition in 2025."
To respond to the Global Stocktake, Guterres is asking for countries to commit to:
- Triple renewable energy capacity.
- Double energy efficiency.
- Bring clean power to all by 2030.
- Phase out all fossil fuels, with a clear time frame aligned to the 1.5 C Paris limit.
The COP28 presidency wants the stocktake to identify where climate action is missing and produce a plan to get countries on track.
Allan said the Paris Agreement doesn't say exactly what form that should take — it could be political declarations, or it could be a decision.
Whatever it is, climate negotiations watchers are keeping an eye out for items on Guterres's wish list.
Loss and damage and other climate finance
Allan said the majority of this year's COP agenda, "if you count up agenda items," is about finance.
Last year's COP27 produced an agreement to set up a loss and damage fund, which would help the world's vulnerable people and countries recover and rebuild after being battered by climate disasters.
Ahead of COP28, a UN committee has come up with recommendations for how the fund should operate, including a proposal that it be temporarily hosted by the World Bank for four years.
That's something countries will need to try to reach an agreement on.
Preety Bhandari, senior advisor for the climate program at the World Resources Institute, said on a press call ahead of the conference that she is "cautiously optimistic" that will happen, as she's heard "positive signals" and thinks countries are unlikely to risk reopening negotiations on it.
Allan agreed: "Maybe everyone's sort of equally unhappy to an extent, but hopefully this means that it will go through relatively smoothly so that funds can start to be raised and deployed."
Guterres is asking for "generous, early contributions to the new loss and damage fund to get it off to a roaring start."
There remain lots of other climate finance issues to discuss, many related to funding for developing nations to adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy, Allan said. Those include how to get global financial institutions, including the World Bank, to align their priorities with the Paris Agreement goals, and how ensure that loans (the main source of climate finance so far) don't cause poorer nations to take on too much debt.
She added that many of those countries also need help to tally up and report on their emissions: "It's pretty important this year because those reports are due pretty soon."
Given the time and resources, are COPs worth it?
This will be the 11th COP meeting that Allan has attended. She acknowledged that despite the annual convention, emissions continue to go up globally. "So by that measure of effectiveness, we're not there yet."
But she noted that the Paris Agreement came out of COP21, and it has altered our trajectory to one with lower emissions and less climate change. In 2015, when the agreement was signed, the world was on track to hit 3.6 degrees of warming by 2100, and now it's headed for 2.9.
"So we are doing slightly better," Allan said, although she acknowledged it's short of the 1.5 and 2 C targets set by the Paris Agreement.
COPs do raise "a tonne" of political and media attention. "This is the one time of year when everyone is talking about climate change."
Most importantly, she thinks, they allow countries vulnerable to climate change to speak directly to countries that are major emitters. "They provide a forum that doesn't exist anywhere else."
Bhandary acknowledged that given the urgency of climate action, what happens at COP might seem bureaucratic and slow.
But he noted that achievements like the establishment of the loss and damage fund come after years of hard work over many COP meetings.
"I think it's that long-term view that we really have to keep in mind as we assess these COPs."
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With files from Jill English
