Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming since 1970s, study finds

Scientists with oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil made remarkably accurate predictions about global warming, even as the company made public statements that contradicted its own scientists' conclusions, a new study has found.

The study published in the journal Science finds that research funded by Exxon not only confirmed what climate scientists were saying at the time, but also used more than a dozen different computer models that forecasted the coming warming with precision equal to or better than government and academic scientists.

This was during the same time that the oil company publicly doubted that warming was real and dismissed climate models' accuracy.

Exxon has defended itself, saying its understanding of climate change evolved over the years and that critics are misunderstanding the company's earlier research.

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Ex-Exxon chief dismissed climate models as 'speculation'

Scientists, governments, activists and news sites, including Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times, several years ago reported that "Exxon knew" about the science of climate change since about 1977 all while publicly casting doubt.

What the new study does is detail how accurate Exxon-funded research was — from 63 per cent to 83 per cent of their projections fit strict standards for accuracy and generally correctly predicted that the globe would warm about 0.2 C a decade.

The Exxon-funded science was "actually astonishing" in its precision and accuracy, said study co-author Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard science history professor. She called out the company for "hypocrisy because so much of the Exxon Mobil disinformation for so many years ... was the claim that climate models weren't reliable."

Study lead author Geoffrey Supran, who started the work at Harvard and now is an environmental science professor at the University of Miami, said this is different than what was previously found in documents about the oil company.

"Our analysis really seals the deal on 'Exxon knew'," Supran said. It "gives us airtight evidence that Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming years before, then turned around and attacked the science underlying it."

The paper quoted then-Exxon CEO Lee Raymond in 1999 as saying future climate "projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or more often, sheer speculation," while his successor in 2013 called models "not competent."

Company defends itself, claims facts misrepresented

Company spokesman Todd Spitler said Exxon's understanding of climate science developed along with the broader scientific community, and its four decades of research in climate science resulted in more than 150 papers, including 50 peer-reviewed publications.

"This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how 'Exxon Knew' are wrong in their conclusions," Spitler said in an emailed statement.

"Some have sought to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil's position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign."

Exxon, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous lawsuits that claim the company knew about the damage its oil and gas would cause to the climate, but misled the public by sowing doubt about climate change. In the latest such lawsuit, New Jersey accused five oil and gas companies including Exxon of deceiving the public for decades while knowing about the harmful toll fossil fuels take on the climate.

University of Illinois atmospheric scientist professor emeritus Donald Wuebbles told The Associated Press that in the 1980s he worked with Exxon-funded scientists and wasn't surprised by what the company knew or the models. It's what science and people who examined the issue knew.

"It was clear that Exxon Mobil knew what was going on," Wuebbles said. "The problem is at the same time they were paying people to put out misinformation. That's the big issue."