U.S. government cuts key hurricane forecasting data from satellites

Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cut-off of key data from U.S. Department of Defence satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it would discontinue the "ingest, processing and distribution" of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defence Department.

The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.

It wasn't immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defence Department referred questions to the air force, which referred them to the navy, which did not immediately provide comment.

In a statement, NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster called it a "routine process of data rotation and replacement," and said the remaining data sources "are fully capable of providing a complete set of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve."

Data helps identify rapid intensification 

Traditional visible or infrared satellites provide data that becomes images showing the structure, intensity and temperature of a storm, according to NOAA information, along with features such as lightning. But those miss the three-dimensional details of a storm.

The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what's going on inside. It is especially helpful at night.

"Think of hurricane forecasting like diagnosing a serious medical condition. Losing access to these special satellite sensors will limit our ability to see the fine details of a storm that other satellites miss — similar to how a CT scan can reveal important details that an X-ray can miss," Chris Scott, The Weather Network's chief meteorologist, said in an email to CBC News.

Scott said Canadian meteorologists use satellite data to estimate the strength and location of hurricanes approaching the Atlantic provinces. Losing that data could mean a storm forecast to hit Nova Scotia in a day could look weaker than it actually is, which could affect how people prepare.

"While the impact of losing this data will vary depending on the situation, there's no question it's a negative," he said.

The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels.

WATCH | CBC meteorologist looks at what's in store for this year's hurricane season:

CBC meteorologist Ashley Brauweiler breaks down this year’s National Hurricane Center forecast

1 month ago

Duration 1:46

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is out with its look ahead for the upcoming hurricane season, which includes predictions for the number of storms, their severity and the list of storm names. CBC meteorologist Ashley Brauweiler looks at how this year compares to recent ones.

Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the centre of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather.

"If a hurricane, let's say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it's a day away from making landfall, it's nighttime," said Marc Alessi, a science fellow with the Union of Concerned Scientists. "We will no longer be able to say, 'OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.'"

Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm.

That "will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines," he said.

LISTEN | What Trump's slashing of NOAA jobs means for weather forecasting:

What On Earth24:48Trump is slashing more jobs at NOAA. What could go wrong?

Fired climate scientist Tom Di Liberto says lives are at risk from extreme weather as more cuts loom over the U.S. government agency responsible for forecasting and much more. Di Liberto lost his job as part of a massive purge by the Trump administration, and worries the layoffs will not only cost the U.S. more money, but will cripple weather forecasting across the continent, leaving many people vulnerable to natural hazards. 

Ending satellite access 'is insanity,' researcher says 

University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data "alarmingly bad news" in a post on Bluesky.

"Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity."

NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of cuts and changes in U.S. President Donald Trump's second term.

Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloon launches have been curtailed due to lack of staffing.

"What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure," Alessi said.

Canadian impact of NOAA cuts

When the cuts were first announced earlier this year, Eddie Sheerr was among a growing number of Canadian scientists sounding the alarm about sweeping NOAA cuts made by the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, then run by billionaire Elon Musk.

Sheerr, a meteorologist with NTV in St. John's, said he uses NOAA's data and modelling "literally every day."

"They have some of the best hurricane forecasters and meteorologists in the world. I rely on that data and their expertise heavily when tracking these tropical systems, as do meteorologists throughout the country," he said in a recent interview. "They provide life-saving information. Period."

Sheerr said he was using NOAA data when he decided to phone Port aux Basques Mayor Brian Button the night before post-tropical storm Fiona slammed into the community on Newfoundland's southwestern tip in September 2022.

He said he figured people would tell the mayor they'd seen plenty of bad storms. "And I said, 'Brian, you haven't seen this before. And that's what you need to tell the residents.'"

Sheerr urged Button to evacuate homes closest to the water, and the mayor took his advice. Fiona destroyed about 100 houses in the area and swept a woman out to sea.

Data from NOAA makes Canadian forecasts and weather warnings more accurate, Sheerr said, adding that he worries the cuts will reduce the accuracy of forecasts and ultimately make it harder to predict the impacts of dangerous storms.

"The less data a computer model has, the less accurate its depiction may be," he said. "And as that depiction is then taken as a snapshot to make subsequent forecasts, your errors could be bigger."