The Dalai Lama has shared plans for his succession. China has other ideas

It was news that many Tibetan Buddhists had been anxiously waiting for, as the Dalai Lama gathered his senior monks in Dharamshala, the Himalayan Indian town where he has lived in exile for decades: a clear plan for his succession.

In a pre-recorded video message, the Dalai Lama, who will turn 90 on Sunday and had previously speculated that he could be the last of his line, confirmed that he will be reincarnated and that the role he occupies will continue after his death.

He added that the Dalai Lama's non-profit foundation, the Gaden Phodrang Trust, has the "sole authority" to recognize his reincarnated self.

"No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter," he said.

WATCH | Dalai Lama says his non-profit will name his successor:

Dalai Lama says his non-profit, not China, will name his successor

25 days ago

Duration 4:37

The Dalai Lama says a non-profit that he has founded will have the sole authority to recognize his future reincarnation, countering China's insistence that it will choose the successor of the Tibetan spiritual leader.

His statement was clearly aimed at blocking China from attempting to influence the process of identifying the future spiritual leader, whom Tibetan tradition maintains is reincarnated after his death.

The 14th Dalai Lama, born as Lhamo Dhondup on July 6, 1935, fled Tibet for India in 1959 after after a failed uprising against Chinese rule.

The clarification that he will be reborn may have prompted joy and relief among many Tibetans, but there are risks. There could be a leadership vacuum for several years while the search for the reincarnated Dalai Lama goes on, and as his successor grows up and is trained.

Details of reincarnation are not usually discussed while a Dalai Lama is alive, said the medium of Tibet's state oracle, Thupten Ngodup. But this time it's a political issue.

"Mainly because the Chinese government is interfering in the reincarnation of His Holiness the Dalai Lama," Ngodup said. "Otherwise there won't be any discussion as long as the Dalai Lama is still alive."

The Dalai Lama has in recent months talked about his successor being born outside of China — a move that has the potential to anger Beijing. It considers the Dalai Lama, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, a separatist who is agitating for an independent Tibet.

China responds

It took only a few hours for China to respond forcefully to his statement, countering that the Chinese government would be the one to approve the next Dalai Lama.

Chinese officials plan to draw names of possible reincarnations from an urn, an imperial tradition dating to 1793.

In Tibetan tradition, the search for the reincarnated Dalai Lama starts after the current one dies. The current Dalai Lama was identified as the reincarnation of the previous leader when he was two years old.

After he fled his homeland, he settled in Dharamshala in northern India and started travelling the world to advocate for more autonomy for the Tibetan people.

The stage is set for a fierce and contentious battle between the rival succession plans.

Fears that the death of the aging Dalai Lama would cause his spiritual office to falter under Chinese pressure have intensified in recent months, and it's widely believed that eventually there will be two competing Dalai Lamas — one identified by senior Tibetan monks and the other chosen by Beijing. 

There is already a precedent: the 11th Panchen Lama, another high-ranking spiritual authority in Tibet, disappeared shortly after he was recognized by the Dalai Lama. The six-year old and his family were never seen again, and Beijing appointed another boy in his place. The replacement, who is often quoted in Chinese state-run media praising the country's policies on Tibet, is seen as an imposter by many Tibetans.

'The struggle will continue'

When the Dalai Lama wrote in his memoir Voice for the Voiceless last March that his successor would be born in the free world outside China, many took notice, said Amitabh Mathur, formerly an advisor to the Indian government on Tibetan affairs.

"It's a signal [to Tibetans] — do not get taken in by what the Chinese tell you," Mathur told CBC News. "It gives a sense of optimism, a sense of hope to the people within Tibet that the struggle will continue."

Mathur believes Beijing is hoping the Tibetan freedom movement opposing Chinese rule in the region will die down after the current Dalai Lama is gone. "I think they identify the entire struggle with the personality of His Holiness," Mathur said, pointing to the Dalai Lama's charisma, which draws major international attention and celebrities to the Tibetan cause.

China will probably push other countries to recognize its choice for the next Dalai Lama and threaten to punish those who endorse the spiritual leader designated by senior Tibetan monks, said Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of China studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.

He believes Beijing will mostly focus its powers of persuasion on convincing many Belt and Road Initiative countries, which receive crucial infrastructure investment dollars, to "reiterate that Tibet is part of China", and therefore that China has the right to approve the next Dalai Lama.

Trump a wildcard

The Tibetan side is counting on support from the United States, which has long backed more freedom for Tibet and pushed for talks between China and the Dalai Lama. But with Donald Trump in office, that might not be a given.

Cuts to foreign aid programs imposed by the Trump administration earlier this year slashed some $22 million in annual funding for Tibetans in exile — more than half of that government's budget. But, also Wednesday, the leader of the Tibetan government-in-exile told reporters that they had just heard a day or two earlier that the U.S. was reversing that decision.

Kondapalli isn't convinced American leaders are as interested in championing the Tibetan cause as they used to be.

"The Trump administration today, even though [Trump] launched tariff wars, he has been very soft on China," the professor said.

India is also in a tough spot as host to the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan government-in-exile and the largest number of Tibetan exiles in the world. The country's leaders have rarely shown overt support for the Dalai Lama, worried about whether that would provoke its neighbour, China, and further inflame bilateral tensions.

Some, like Mathur, think India should be more clear that reincarnation is up to Tibetan religious leaders alone. The government should say, "It's none of our business; it is only their business," he told CBC News.

But mostly, he said, the question for many Tibetans as the Dalai Lama's 90th birthday celebrations continue this week, is how to keep their identity intact after he's gone.

"He is such a moral beacon," Mathur said. "All the hopes and aspirations of Tibetans are sort of wrapped around him."