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Is Clinton the only 'adult' candidate or 'beyond the law?' In Ohio, it depends where you ask

The U.S. election may see some "scrambling" of the political geography in Ohio. Trump should clean up in rural areas and smaller towns while Clinton will likely maintain the Democratic foothold in cities, Mark Gollom writes.

State's results in U.S. election could scramble the political geography, expert says

Charles Garhold from Powell, Ohio, said he would consider moving to Toronto from his upper-income neighbourhood if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

Charles Garhold lives in an upscale neighbourhood of Powell, Ohio, and recently returned from a trip to Toronto where he spent some time scouting the area in case Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.

"Trump scares the hell out of me," Garhold said as he stood at his doorway, just metres from two Clinton/Kaine signs that feature prominently on his trimmed front lawn.

The businessman, husband and father of two says there has never been someone as qualified to be president as Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, given her experience as first lady, a New York senator and secretary of state.

"She's a grown-up. And we need an adult in the White House," he said.

Garhold is something of a minority political voice in this small, upper-income bedroom community of about 12,000. A suburb of Columbus and part of Delaware County, it has been anything but Democrat — just four years ago it voted for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by 23 points.

But it's a county to keep an eye on during election night. It's the fastest-growing county in the state, yet it was Trump's worst county in the Republican primary, meaning results here could give an indication of how the night unfolds, wrote Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.

Trump/Pence signs are a familiar sight travelling through small northern Ohio towns such as Apple Creek. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

'Scrambling' of the political geography

John Green, an expert on Ohio politics, sees the potential for some "scrambling" of the state's political geography, particularly if the candidates lose voters in areas where their party has traditionally done better.

Trump already had problems attracting female voters, and the video release of his crude comments back in 2005 certainly won't help him. This means Clinton could gain support from white suburbanites, particularly women, from traditional Republican areas like Delaware County, said Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.

Meanwhile, Green said, Trump may gain votes from white, blue-collar workers in traditionally Democratic areas, where manufacturing has been hit hard and his anti-free trade message is popular.

But mostly, Trump should follow the traditional Republican electoral path and clean up in the rural towns and areas while Clinton will likely continue to maintain the Democratic foothold of the major cities. Franklin County for example, which includes Columbus, gave U.S. President Barack Obama a 20-point victory over Romney.

"It's become a really liberal little place. It's very easy to open a business in Columbus, to own a house in Columbus," says Jennifer Burton, who was born and raised in the state capital.

This is a Democrat city, with a Democratic mayor and Democratic city council. The downtown core has seen significant development over the years and attracted many young workers from all parts of the state. Forbes recently put it at No. 7 on its list of 20 best cities for young professionals.

Small business owner Jennifer Burton, born and raised in Columbus, says she can't understand why anyone would vote for Trump. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

Construction cranes dot the city, while the area known as Short North has become the trendy downtown district destination, complete with swanky restaurants and bars.

Burton has been running her beer and wine retail business for six years at the North Market, the longest-running public market in the city.

"I just don't understand how anyone could vote for Trump," said Burton, an unabashed Clinton supporter. "And I actually like Hillary. I'm not voting for her because I don't like Trump." 

'Vote Democrat but not this time'

That was, more or less, the view of a number of Columbus residents. 

But in the midsize city of Canton, where manufacturing has been hollowed out, Clinton could face some real challenges.

"I normally vote Democrat but not this time," Mark Abel said as he finished his shift at the Timken Steel plant where he's worked for 21 years.

"We've lost a lot of jobs. Right now, things are slow. We've been off a week every month for about a year and a half."

While union leadership may continue to endorse Clinton, Abel said some of the rank-and-file members are leaning toward Trump.

"I agree with some of the stuff he's trying to do. Like trying to get the jobs back. That's what we need. Get the jobs back here. That's going to increase the tax revenue for the country."

It's a sentiment shared by Susan Craft, a part-time restaurant worker and resident of the small town of Apple Creek, 50 kilometres west of Canton. 

"NAFTA took a lot of jobs from this county. We have had a lot of factories close over the past 10, 15 years and they're not coming back," said Craft, a Trump supporter.

Susan Craft, a part-time restaurant worker and resident of the small town of Apple Creek, 50 kilometres west of Canton, is a Trump supporter and blames free trade for job losses. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

Craft's street is peppered with Trump/Pence signs, a familiar sight travelling through small northern Ohio towns, all of which are Trump territory. Here, many like Craft, while expressing support for Trump, seem more motivated to vote by their dislike of Clinton.

"I'm tired of the liars," said one Bellville resident who didn't want to be identified. "I wouldn't vote Hillary for a dog catcher. I like Trump, he's telling the truth. Hillary should be in the pen."

The northeastern Ohio town of Wooster is a Republican stronghold.

Just east in the midsize town of Wooster, where the Republican headquarters sit on prime real estate in the downtown core, Trump is still considered the popular choice. Yet the area is not devoid of Clinton supporters.

'I know a con man'

"Well, I know a con man when I see him," said Glen Grumbling, owner of the Broken Rocks Cafe and Bakery. "I see a lot of con men come in my door often."

Grumbling said unlike other towns in the state, Wooster is a thriving community.  

While he works long hours and makes his food from scratch, he acknowledged that Clinton's support for a higher minimum wage would add to his already high labour costs. But still, he believes she's the better choice.

Even though the minimum wage might rise under a Hillary Clinton presidency and saddle cafe owner Glen Grumbling with additional labour costs, he still believes she's the better choice. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

That's not the opinion of Ken Booth, a resident of the agricultural community of Ashland, just west of Wooster.

"Clinton? Oh my God, don't get me started." 

Booth, like many Trump supporters, said he will vote for the Republican candidate because he's an outsider, not a politician. But with Booth, a retired construction worker, his support is somewhat qualified.

"He's probably just as bad as the rest of them, but give him a chance because he hasn't been in politics."

Dairy farmer Marcia Lahmers of Ashland doesn't believe either presidential candidate is offering policies that would help the region. (Mark Gollom/CBC)

However, standing inside Hawkins Market, real estate agent and dairy farmer Marcia Lahmers can't make up her mind on whom to support. Farming has been hit hard by commodity prices, she said. 

She has lived in Ashland for 30 years and doesn't believe either candidate is offering policies that would help the region. But she disagreed with Trump on free trade, saying the reality is that it's a global market.

"Do you want to know it in a nutshell? Donald Trump's dangerous. Hillary is, I think, beyond the law."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mark Gollom

Senior Reporter

Mark Gollom is a Toronto-based reporter with CBC News. He covers Canadian and U.S. politics and current affairs.