In port city of Mariupol, Ukrainians see few signs of government preparing for Russian invasion
City on Sea of Azov coast is near front line where separatists and Ukrainian forces have been fighting
"What preparations?" scoffs Oleg Budnikov, a 69-year-old resident of the southeast Ukrainian village of Pavlopil, when asked what the government is doing to prepare the area for a possible Russian incursion.
"Only God prepares in this country," he laughs as he loads fertilizer into his cart.
This is the scene in southeastern Ukraine, only a few kilometres from the so-called line of control between government forces and Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk region.
Despite a massive buildup of Russian military forces just across the border, there are few, if any, signs that locals or authorities have made contingencies for an offensive that U.S. officials have been warning may be only days away (although there were indications Tuesday that Russia may be pulling some troops back).
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Pavlopil sits about 15 kilometres north of the city of Mariupol, a key Ukrainian port on the Sea of Azov. The village has seen its share of fighting: in late 2014, fighters from the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) briefly captured the settlement, before a Ukrainian counter-offensive drove them out.
In the time since, many residents have left the village, dismayed by the regular gunfire nearby. Those who have stayed have few plans.
Viktor Tsado, 72, is one such resident.
"About half [of the village] has left," he said, sitting in his wheelchair and smoking a cigarette outside his home. "They did not want to deal with this," he said, gesturing to the east, where DNR positions lay just beyond the horizon.
Other citizens feel the same.
"The military is nearby," said Tatiana Kopchenko, 32, a native of the village who now spends most of her time in Mariupol with her two young children. "We will manage on our own [if something happens]."
Violations of the 2014 ceasefire reached between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in the area have been intermittently growing in recent weeks.
On Jan. 27, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission reported 510 violations on the previous day in the Donetsk region, nearly double the daily average in 2021. On Feb. 11, that number was 738.
Several bursts of automatic gunfire were audible during CBC's visit on Sunday.
Despite this, locals say they have not received any instruction from authorities.
"What would we do, anyways?" said Tsado, unperturbed. "I lived in the basement in 2014 and 2015. I can do it again."
Few signs of concern
Budnikov says the only hint of humanitarian preparations was a promised exercise that has not yet materialized.
"[Local officials] promised us they'd provide some sort of evacuation training, but only next month," he said. "Nothing aside from that."
In Mariupol itself, meanwhile, life continues as normal, with few signs that contingency plans have been made in the event of a military escalation.
At the city's Central Hospital #1, local workers were bewildered by the suggestion that they might have to make additional preparations for casualties — civilian or military — that could result from renewed large-scale fighting.
"There's nothing special happening here," said one nurse working at the facility. "What should we need? The situation is calm."
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Last weekend, city authorities were not working, seemingly unconcerned by the situation. They did not return repeated requests from CBC for comment once the work week resumed.
This comes despite the threat faced by Mariupol's frontline position.
Rob Lee, a Russian defence analyst and PhD candidate in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, told CBC that while Mariupol was not likely to be a priority objective, "it could be targeted as part of a broader escalation."
"Russia could also decide to increase the size of the [Donetsk or Luhansk people's republics] as part of a broader operation," said Lee.
No apparent planning
There are other reasons to suspect a threat to Mariupol.
Russia has moved numerous amphibious landing crafts into the Black Sea as part of ongoing naval drills, which are capable of disembarking troops at Mariupol's port.
And on Tuesday, Russia's Duma (parliament) approved a bill to send to President Vladimir Putin that would recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, the former of which claims Mariupol as part of its territory.
Russian recognition of these "republics" would open the door to helping them capture the remainder of their claimed territory.
Some locals are distressed by the apparent lack of planning by Mariupol's officials.
Oleg Gusak, 56, has worked at the Mariupol port since 1986, when it was still part of the Soviet Union. He aided in the defence of the city in 2015, running supplies and logistics for the Ukrainian forces that repelled a separatist assault aimed at seizing it.
Gusak says that little has been done to prepare for the humanitarian consequences of any renewed fighting.
"There are no special preparations [for a possible attack] at all," Gusak said. "There has been some training in terms of evacuation procedures to bomb shelters, but nothing specific recently."
He thinks more is likely to be necessary.
"In my personal opinion, from what I've seen, I think the city authorities are not doing enough," he said. "The preparatory measures are not sufficient. We trust the army completely, but it would be better if we were prepared like in Israel, how they are there."
For Gusak, like many in Mariupol, the war is simply something that they have to live with.
"Everyone [at the port] is completely calm," Gusak said. "I think it's the same for the whole city. People are already accustomed to this tense situation – it's already almost eight years that it's like this. Our lives have to go on, despite everything."
For Gusak, as with most Ukrainians, the main concerns for the country are domestic.
When asked about the greatest threat to the port, Gusak's thoughts go not to Russia or war, but to the main bugbear of the 2014 Maidan revolution: corruption.
"This is what destroys the whole country," he said. "That's what we're really fighting against."
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