Election of Hong Kong activists means clashes ahead with Beijing

Two years ago, student protesters occupied Hong Kong's streets demanding full democracy. Night after night, they were joined by tens of thousands… chanting slogans, resisting police and waving yellow umbrellas as symbols of defiance.

After more than two months, with no concessions from Hong Kong's Chief Executive or his political masters in Beijing, the protest seemed to fizzle. Student leaders went home, some in tears.

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On Sunday, they came roaring back. Swept into Hong Kong's Legislative Council in an election few expected to end this way, on the strength of support from newly politicized youth voters and a record turnout.

It's a result that promises continued clashes with Hong Kong's establishment and much more tension with Communist Party rulers in mainland China. The pro-democracy group doesn't have enough votes to pass new laws, but it will have the power to veto constitutional changes.

Capturing voter imagination

Six young faces seemed to capture the voters' imagination. Most are in their 20s and 30s, all are more at home in a university library than a legislature. All of them demand self-determination for the former British colony, now part of China. They have been dubbed the Localists.

The highest profile of the group belongs to 23-year old Nathan Law, who becomes the youngest ever lawmaker in Hong Kong. A leader of the Umbrella protests, he was later convicted for storming the government headquarters where he will now sit. Law was sentenced to 120 hours of community service.

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"I think Hong Kongers really wanted change," Law said, after what he called a "shocking" victory. "Young people have a sense of urgency when it comes to the future."

Rejection of more moderate approach

The vote isn't just a repudiation of Hong Kong's establishment, strongly influenced by Beijing leaders. It's also a rejection of an older generation of more moderate pro-democracy candidates who were defeated.

"The traditional democratic candidates have tried for so many years to fight for democracy and we didn't make it," says Kin-man Chan, one of the original organizers of the Umbrella protests and a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "The old methods didn't work."

Notably, most previous pro-democracy activists accepted China's sovereignty over Hong Kong as a given.

"Among young people, the idea of Hong Kong independence has spread rapidly in the past few months," he says. "And more and more middle-aged, middle-class people are sympathetic. They understand that independence is unrealistic, but people now think about using more confrontational methods to achieve democracy."

A survey done in July by the Chinese University of Hong Kong found that 17.4 per cent of residents favoured independence in the future, the highest level of support since Hong Kong reverted to Chinese control in 1997. Independence was rejected by 57.6 per cent of those polled. Very few, only four per cent, said they believed it would ever happen.

The big question is, how will Beijing react to this new group of what it calls "radicals?"

Warnings from Beijing

"This is a challenge for Beijing's political wisdom, and I don't think at this moment it has a plan," says Baohui Zhang, a political scientist at Hong Kong's Lingnan University. "These results exceeded everyone's expectations. Nobody saw this coming."

The only reaction from Beijing so far has been a statement reiterating the Chinese government's "resolute opposition" to any form of independence activity.

It said Hong Kong independence was, "a threat to China's sovereignty and security, damaged the prosperity and stability of Hong Kong, and was counter to the fundamental interests of Hong Kong citizens."

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Beijing officials also said "We firmly support the Hong Kong SAR [Special Administrative Region] government to mete out penalties according to law."

Before the vote, pro-Beijing officials in Hong Kong tried to prevent democracy activists from running by forcing all prospective candidates to sign a declaration saying they accept China's sovereignty and the so-called "one country, two systems" principle.

Under that principle, confirmed when Hong Kong reverted from Britain to China in 1997, Beijing guaranteed that political and economic systems would not be changed for at least 50 years, while Hong Kong remained an integral part of China.

Activists say Beijing often violates its end of that bargain by exerting influence in Hong Kong politics, and that's been one of the driving forces pushing Hong Kong residents to consider independence.

Why is independence taboo?

"If 'one country, two systems' is not being respected by Beijing, why should we treat it as a taboo to talk about Hong Kong independence?" says Chan. "Only when Beijing honours its promise, then this idea of independence will have no market."

Chan doesn't think China would ever actually allow Hong Kong to split, though, expecting that it would use military force before secession ever became a possibility.

As for Beijing's next step now, Zhang says it depends on how the six newly elected activists act once they take their seats. If they promote democracy, but stop short of pushing for independence, he says Beijing may not intervene.

"But if they try to initiate something that challenges Beijing's sovereignty over Hong Kong, then that is a big dilemma," Zhang says. "China may have to take some action."

All eyes are on the six young activists. And so far, they're not giving away their plans after Oct. 1, when they're due to be sworn in.