France's Macron gambles on snap election to keep far right in check
National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, made significant gains in weekend election
The posters touting the far right were sometimes hard to spot behind all the bunting and decorations heralding last week's 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in France, which marked a major turning point in the war for the allied nations fighting Nazi Germany.
But they were there, lurking behind the Union Jack, the Stars and Stripes and the Maple Leaf strung along the streets of Normandy's wartime villages: campaign posters for Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), which emerged victorious on Sunday in European Parliament elections.
The pro-Europe centrist party of French President Emmanuel Macron — who led tributes to the ever-dwindling number of Second World War veterans and solemn ceremonies remembering the soldiers who died in the fight for freedom — won less than half as many votes as the far right.
Even though the mainstream centre-right bloc known as the European People's Party (EPP) held its ground and gained seats, there were significant gains for the far right in both France and Germany — key pillars of the European Union essentially born of the ashes of the Second World War.
National Rally — formerly the National Front, founded by Le Pen's Holocaust-denying father, Jean-Marie Le Pen – won 31.4 per cent of the vote in France, while Macron's coalition took 14.6 per cent.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) beat German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats to second place, with 16 per cent of the European Parliament vote.
Macron's reaction to the results in France — choosing to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap parliamentary elections to conclude in a final ballot on July 7 — has created shockwaves and raised fears that the gamble could backfire.
WATCH | France calls snap election in wake of European Parliament election results:
A time for 'clarification'
In a televised address on Sunday, he said he had made the call in response to "the rise of nationalists and demagogues," which he described as a danger to France's position in Europe and the world.
"Now is the time for clarification," he told Le Figaro newspaper two days later. "Dissolution is the clearest, most radical and strongest gesture. A gesture of great confidence in the French people."
Macron is clearly banking on the fact that voters tend not to pay too much attention to the European Parliament's elections. It is the European Commission, rather than the Parliament, that formulates policy, along with national governments.
His clear hope is that voters will balk at the prospect of a far-right government in France.
Critics say he underestimates an electorate that deeply dislikes him; his approval ratings are around 22 per cent, according to newspaper reports. His gamble, they say, risks opening the door to the far right even further.
"Now weaker than ever, Macron is bringing out his philosopher's stone — the one that enabled him to win power and keep it, but which has since lost its effectiveness," wrote journalist Solenn de Royer in Le Monde.
"He is once again framing the situation as a deadly faceoff between populists and progressives, essentially 'me or chaos.' He is betting on transforming the 'all against Macron' into an 'all against the [National Rally.]'"
Bedlam across the political spectrum
The risk of Macron's gamble was further highlighted when Éric Ciotti, the head of The Republicans, France's conservative party, called for an alliance with National Rally. It was the first time a mainstream political party had suggested a partnership with the far right. The suggestion has been met with outrage by Ciotti's own party, which moved to dismiss him.
Parties on the left side of the political spectrum, including the Greens and Jean-Luc Melenchon's far-left France Unbowed, have reportedly made a pledge to act together in the upcoming vote.
Macron has urged moderates on both left and right to find common ground to defeat NR in the upcoming vote.
Le Pen has confirmed that if her party wins a majority in the snap elections, her 28-year-old lieutenant and party president, Jordan Bardella, will be named as prime minister.
Bardella, who embraces the party's anti-immigrant rhetoric and has more than one million TikTok followers, is considered a rising star among RN supporters.
If RN were to win, Macron would be faced with "cohabitation," meaning he would have to share power with a government of his opponents for the remainder of his term as president, due to end in 2027.
If it were with the far right, it would be unprecedented.
In an editorial earlier this week, Le Monde sought to underline just how precarious a position Macron has placed the country in.
"Nothing less than the future of our democracy will be decided, in a hurry, as will the face we wish to present to our European allies and partners, at a time when our continent is once again struck by war and our world is in a stage of climatic catastrophe," wrote director Jérôme Fenoglio.
Concerns about weakened Europe
There are fears a victory for the National Rally would set France on the same path as Hungary, where the increasingly authoritarian policies of populist leader Viktor Orban have eroded democratic institutions, including an independent judiciary and a free press.
Across the channel from France, the editorial board of the Guardian newspaper in the U.K. also weighed in, reminding Macron of the dangers inherent in grand gestures.
"As David Cameron discovered after pledging a Brexit referendum, following stellar European results for Nigel Farage's Ukip in 2014, bold gambits can deliver very nasty surprises," the editorial said.
WATCH | About That: Is Macron's election call a calculated risk?
Marine Le Pen, who is positioning herself to run for president in 2027, no longer says she wants to take France out of the European Union, part of her attempts to soften National Rally's image.
But critics say the desire to weaken the bloc from within is still there, along with a populist appeal still reliant on the xenophobia that characterised RN's earlier incarnations.
Le Pen's support for Russia is another reason alarm bells should be ringing, says historian Timothy Garton Ash, an author and professor of European studies at Oxford University.
"You see [their] posters everywhere, most of which are tangentially pro-Russian," he said in an interview in Normandy last week.
"They say we want peace, by which they mean 'make a deal with [Russia's Vladimir] Putin.' And most of them also like [former U.S. president Donald] Trump."
Garton Ash, whose own father landed with British troops on Normandy's beaches on D-Day, said commemorations held to mark the 80th anniversary risk losing their meaning if people fail to connect the past with the present.
"Only if we can make the connection to the war that's happening right now and to the nationalisms we're facing right now — some would say the fascism we're facing right now — is it valuable."
He said that's especially true for the younger generation, "[who] don't realize that this wonderful Europe we've created, which is relatively free and prosperous and peaceful … could easily be under serious threat."
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