Does assassination of Hamas leader in Iran signal start of a regional war?
Haniyeh assassination took place a day after Israel killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut
The United States says that if Israel were attacked, it would step in to defend it, raising concern the killings of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in the last 24 hours will trigger an all-out war in the Middle East.
"You saw us do that in April, you can expect to see us do that again," U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin told reporters Wednesday in Subic Bay, Philippines.
In April, the U.S. assisted Israel by helping to intercept Iranian missiles that rained down on the country in response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria.
Austin wouldn't confirm Israel was responsible for the attack that killed Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement on Wednesday about Tuesday's attack that killed Shukr in Lebanon, but said nothing about Haniyeh's assassination. Netanyahu said Israel has been fighting an axis of evil between Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis and vowed to continue fighting for its citizens.
"We will not remain silent," said Netanyahu.
"We have closed our accounts with those who are against us, those who massacre our children, those who murder our citizens, those who put our country in harm's way will have to pay," said Netanyahu.
He said for months there have been calls from "all directions" to end the war because it cannot be won and boasted Israel's recent successes have occurred because he did not listen.
Meanwhile, the U.S. said it is working to bring down tensions as it continues to push for a ceasefire.
"I think it's too soon to know, what any of these reported events could mean for the ceasefire deal," said John Kirby, White House National spokesperson, at a press briefing Wednesday.
But Kirby said that doesn't mean the U.S. will stop working toward one. He said the U.S. currently has a team in the region to try to work with counterparts to move this forward.
He said the U.S. wants to ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself, to make sure the people of Gaza are not suffering more than they already are, and to manage risk.
"One of the things the president's been very focused on is trying to prevent escalation here. That work is complicated and difficult everyday and that includes today," said Kirby.
Israel had pledged to kill Hamas leader
Israel had pledged to kill Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders after the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel that resulted in the killing of some 1,200 people and the abduction of 250 others, but did not officially take responsibility for Haniyeh's assassination.
Haniyeh was Hamas's top negotiator involved in ceasefire talks between Israel and the Palestinian militant group.
On Facebook, the Israeli government's press office posted an image of Haniyeh with the word "eliminated" pasted on his forehead.
"I'm afraid Israel is now left only with the hardline leaders ... which probably makes [a] ceasefire deal much less likely," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group and adjunct professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.
If Netanyahu wanted a ceasefire, Vaez said, he would not have assassinated one of the key interlocutors in negotiations.
"It seems that it aligns with the political objectives of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who wants to remain in power and knows that once this war comes to an end, so will his political life," said Vaez.
Haniyeh was seen as more moderate than Yahya Sinewar, Hamas's military leader, who is believed to be on the ground fighting in Gaza. Vaez believes Sinewar orchestrated the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel to trigger a regional war in order to completely change the balance of power in the Middle East, which did not happen.
Haniyeh had been living in exile in Qatar since 2019 and was in Iran for the inauguration of the country's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran's supreme leader vowed revenge against Israel.
"We consider his revenge as our duty," Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement on his official website. He said Israel had "prepared a harsh punishment for itself" by killing "a dear guest in our home."
Vaez said it was not a surprise that Israel wanted to assassinate a senior Hamas leader; but the location and timing of the killing was surprising.
"This happened on the day after the inauguration of the new Iranian president, a much more moderate Iranian president who wanted to bring down the temperature in the region and reopen negotiations with the West," he told CBC News.
Israel hit Iranian embassy in April
Hamas's military wing issued a statement, also raising fears of a larger war in the Middle East. It said the assassination "takes the battle to new dimensions and will have major repercussions on the entire region."
In April, Israeli war planes bombed Iran's embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing seven military advisers, including three senior commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Iran retaliated by launching more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. Most were shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system and with help from the U.S., Britain and Jordan. Israel responded by targeting an air defence facility in Isfahan, Iran, but international efforts succeeded in containing the situation before it turned into a larger conflagration.
On Tuesday, less than 24 hours before Haniyeh's death, Israel took out top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, also known as Sayyid Muhsan, in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. Israeli military said the killing was retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights three days earlier that killed 12 children.
Speaking in Singapore to Channel News Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in the killing and had no prior knowledge of it.
U.S. focused on ceasefire: Blinken
Blinken wouldn't speculate on what impact the latest killing would have on reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. "We'll continue to work at that every day," he said of a ceasfire agreement.
"My bet would be that it actually escalates tensions," said Brian Katulis, senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.
"It's hard to conduct diplomacy when ... the main fighters in these conflicts don't look to diplomacy as much as they do to these military actions to settle scores," said Katulis told CBC News.
Gaza civilians desperate for ceasefire
In Gaza, civilians are desperate for a ceasefire. For the past 10 months, they have been forced to flee from one area to another whenever fighting resumes in areas deemed humanitarian zones.
"God willing within a few hours, the gap that Ismail Haniyeh left will be filled by another person quickly to continue the negotiations," said Osama Abu Saad, 47, in Khan Younis in an interview with a freelance videographer Mohamed El Saife working for CBC News.
He said the negotiations are not for Hamas, they are for Palestinians.
"We want to end it. Negotiations, okay, that bring lasting peace," said Saad.
"The [Israeli] occupation stabbed the dove of peace and they made the odds of ending the war very difficult," another Palestinian in Khan Younis, Abdul Nasser Abbas, 51, told the freelance reporter.
In January, Israel killed another Hamas leader in Beirut, Saleh al-Arourim who had also been involved in negotiations over the fate of Israeli hostages held in Gaza's tunnel network.
"I hope that those hostages that are in desperation and in tunnels held by Hamas are safe. But I think it puts lower odds on the chances of success," said Katulis.
In Israel, the families of the remaining hostages are still optimistic a deal can be reached to bring their loved ones home. They held a rally in Jerusalem on Wednesday to mark 299 days in captivity.
"I know that Carmel and the people around her have done nothing wrong and they deserve to come home," said Shay Dickmann, cousin of Israeli hostage Carmel Gat. "And I know that the way to bring back all of these people is a deal. A deal must be signed."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from Thomson Reuters, The Associated Press and Mohamed El Saife