Fragile ceasefire leaves Iranians outside country torn about returning home
After 12 days of intense airstrikes, many hope delicate truce between Iran and Israel can succeed
Overnight on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump jubilantly announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, only to be visibly disappointed Tuesday morning when both sides were accused of violating it.
For Iranians at the Kapikoy-Razi border crossing in eastern Turkey, there was a mix of optimism and confusion — hope that a delicate truce could be maintained despite the violent swings that have gripped the region over the past 12 days.
While all welcomed the prospect of peace — even a fragile one — Iranians remained wary of speaking too openly about the effect the conflict has had on Iranian society and the long-ruling regime.
When CBC News approached a group of young Iranian women sitting on the pavement, surrounded by their large suitcases, one said she would like to speak but couldn't.
"We are afraid," she said. "Our government is shit."
PHOTOS | Iranians at the Kapikoy-Razi border crossing:
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ruled the country since 1989. Under him, Iran has continued to develop its nuclear program, which Israel and the U.S. called a pressing threat in justifying the decision to launch recent airstrikes.
Iran and Israel have been firing missiles at each other since June 13, and on the weekend, the U.S. stepped in, dropping bunker-busting bombs at Iranian nuclear facilities, including one buried below a mountain.
In Iran, where the majority of the population is Shia Muslim, the regime has created an environment of violent suppression of any form of protest or dissent, leading to a climate of fear.
Growing unrest
Over the last decade, Iranians have taken to the streets on numerous occasions to protest the ruling clerics and the state of the economy. In 2022, the death of a woman named Mahsa Amini in police custody for an alleged dress code violation led to months of demonstrations as well as a brutal crackdown.
At the Kapikoy-Razi border crossing on Tuesday, where waves of people are heading in and out of Iran, a few dual citizens told CBC News that Iranian authorities were searching their cellphones and looking at photos and contacts before they crossed.
One Iranian, who didn't want CBC News to use his name, asked to know the details of the ceasefire, because his phone hadn't been working and he wasn't able to get updates.
"It looked like [shooting] was supposed to stop officially at 4 a.m., but then we heard news about some missiles shooting.… So we were like, OK, what the hell is going to happen?" he said.
"I don't really have any clear understanding of who is really eager for a ceasefire."
The man, who is in his 20s, teaches English to international students online. With widespread internet outages in Iran, he feared he was about to lose his job.
He had left the capital, Tehran, a few days after the airstrikes began. Then on Tuesday morning, he decided to leave for Turkey, where he will try to stay with friends for a few months.
He said Iranians have mobilized around three separate viewpoints: those who want to overthrow the regime at any cost; those who remain loyal to it; and those who don't really like the government, but are angered by Israel and, to a lesser extent, the United States.
"I mean, I don't support the [regime] at all," he said. "But what's happening … there are casualties, and that's not nice at all."
Talk of regime change
On Tuesday, Iran's Health Ministry said more than 600 people have been killed in the airstrikes in the past 12 days, along with some 4,700 injured though some groups have said that's likely an undercount.
In Israel, at least 28 people have been killed, according to the United Nations.
Both Israel and the U.S. have talked publicly about the potential of regime change in Iran. On Sunday, Trump stated that new leadership could "make Iran great again," but on Tuesday shifted his message, saying that regime change typically creates chaos.
He previously said that the country's supreme leader was in hiding, but still an easy target. Trump then proclaimed he wouldn't be killed, "at least for now."
Amid Trump's changing rhetoric, there are reports that top clerics, appointed by Khamenei, have been working to identify possible replacements, creating a succession plan in case he is killed.
Israel says throughout its offensive, it has targeted Iran's military and security infrastructure, along with top officials and nuclear scientists.
The country's defence minister said it was not only striking regime targets but also "agencies of government repression."
Last week, Israel targeted the headquarters of Iran's state broadcaster, and on Monday, the notorious Evin prison in Tehran, where political opponents and westerners accused of sabotage are jailed.
'I hope that the ceasefire will happen'
Milad, another Iranian who crossed into Turkey on Wednesday and only wanted to be identified by his first name, told CBC News he thought Iran's government would start rebuilding infrastructure right away, which would further cripple Iran's sanctioned, inflation-plagued economy.
"I feel that people are tired and … they don't have the energy to fight or to think of regime change, because we only try to stay alive," he said.
"Maybe something happens, maybe it won't. It all depends on the political leaders — the United States, whether it decides which side loses the war or wins the war. It's not up to the people."
While Milad was looking to settle somewhere until it was clear the fighting had stopped, on Tuesday, hundreds headed in the other direction into Iran.
Among them was Musa Ramesh, who had been out of the country with his family to attend his daughter's graduation in Cyprus.
When one of his younger relatives suggested he shouldn't be doing an interview, Ramesh waved off the suggestion, insisting he wanted to talk.
"My government and Israel, there are some problems, but I hope that the ceasefire will happen," he said. "This is our home. We should be there."
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