Israel's strikes on Iran just the latest step in Netanyahu's plan to reshape the Middle East
Iran’s tepid response to attacks, assassinations in the past year hints at deep weaknesses
Israel's attack on Iran, its nuclear sites and its military leadership are part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's larger ambition to reform the dynamics of the Middle East and vanquish longtime foes.
With the Islamic Republic weakened by the near defeat over the past year of key proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the final — and arguably most dangerous — elements of Israel's military strategy were put in play early Friday local time in Iran.
"Pandora's box has been cast wide open with Israel's sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets — an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East," the London-based Royal United Services Institute said in a briefing note.
"For Tehran, this is not only a tactical loss, but a profound strategic humiliation," said the defence and security think-tank.
Netanyahu outlined his maximalist goals for the military operation in a video statement.
"'Operation Rising Lion' is a targeted operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's survival," he said.
Raising the spectre of what he termed a potential future "nuclear holocaust," Israel's leader said now was the time to destroy Iran's nuclear program before the "tyrants of Tehran" can develop an atomic bomb.
"In recent months, Iran has taken steps it has never taken before to weaponize this enriched uranium," Netanyahu said as justification for the extraordinary and unprecedented attacks on nuclear facilities, military installations and the assassination of key military and scientific leaders.
Nuclear progress?
Iran's actual progress toward making an atomic bomb remains murky.
Does the country have such a weapon at the moment? In a report released just a day earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency the conclusion appeared to be, likely not.
Do they have the fuel to make one? Probably. Are they hiding things from inspectors? The nuclear watchdog's verdict: most definitely.
Israel says it hit at least 100 targets, including several nuclear facilities. The heads of Iran's armed forces, its revolutionary guard and its emergency command were all assassinated, as were six top nuclear scientists — some apparently in their homes alongside their families.
Unverified images posted on social media pinpoint missile strikes, with holes punched in the side of concrete buildings where those inside were presumably killed, likely as they slept.
Other reports suggest many of the military leaders were killed together by an Israeli missile taking out an underground command bunker.
Just hours before the attacks, Iran had boasted its forces were at the "highest level" of readiness and there would be payback if Israel attacked — but by afternoon no such retaliation had materialized.
Israel's military reported a token force of 100 Iranian drones had been intercepted outside its borders as they flew over Syrian and Jordanian territory, but Iran's Fars News Agency says no drones were launched.
Caught by surprise
A former cabinet minister for veterans in the first Trump administration noted that the demise of Hezbollah in Lebanon — thanks to Israeli decapitation strikes last summer — combined with December's removal of the Assad regime in Syria to clear a path for Israel's military to operate more freely against Iran.
"What struck me was apparently how unprepared the Iranians were," Robert Wilkie told BBC News.
Israeli security sources reportedly briefed local media that Israel had teams of special operatives on the ground in Iran who launched pre-emptive drone strikes on Iranian ballistic missile launchers to thwart an Iranian response.
Wilkie says the other important factor was U.S. President Donald Trump.
"There's nothing Trump has done that has held the Israelis back — and I think this was their [Israel's] window of opportunity."
In a social media statement following the attacks, the U.S. president offered Iran's leadership what he called "a second chance" to cut a deal on its nuclear program.
The U.S. has been pushing Iran to end its enrichment activities, the precursor to creating nuclear weapons — something Tehran has refused to do. Talks, which have happened since mid-April, appeared to hit a recent impasse, although another round of discussions was set for Sunday in Oman.
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran with Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News he doesn't believe Tehran's leadership is in a position to back down.
"Because it's capitulation — it's surrendering to the West," he said. "What will happen is probably the contrary, more escalation rather than a deal right now."
Iran's foreign minister termed Israel's attacks a "declaration of war" and Muslim countries accused Israel of "blatant aggression."
Qatar's prime minister said Israel had destroyed any prospect for peace and had put global security in imminent danger.
The Washington-based Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank, offered one of the more scathing assessments, blasting the Netanyahu government for exposing U.S. military installations and citizens in the Middle East to extreme risk.
"Netanyahu has started a war with Iran that has no justification," the group said in a release.
Iran was not on the precipice of acquiring nuclear weapons, the group said, but rather Tehran was attempting to maximize its leverage in negotiations.
Proxy wars
Since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked southern Israel and killed more than 1,200 people, Israel has been waging immensely destructive battles with the Iranian proxies that surrounded its borders.
While Israel's military and security services scored surprising successes at neutering Hezbollah in Lebanon, the war in Gaza and the staggering cost Israel has inflicted on the civilian population has led to international condemnation and political isolation.
More than 55,000 Palestinians have died in the bombardment and many Western countries, including Canada, have censured Israel for cutting off humanitarian aid and food — deliberately keeping hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in near starvation conditions.
Retaliation cost
Despite the apparent success of the Israeli strikes Friday, analysts noted Iran's military resources remain vast, and its capacity to inflict damage is high.
"The Iranian response might be delayed or split into multiple phases, but its main weapon will be ballistic missiles," said the Royal United Services Institute in its statement. The think-tank also noted Iran could mobilize terror attacks to strike soft targets inside and outside of Israel.
Israel's foreign ministry announced Friday that it was shutting down many of its foreign embassies in response to the presumed threat.
Earlier this week, the website Axios reported Iran had scaled up the manufacture of long-range missiles to around 50 a week, adding to an already immense arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Last November, Iran fired about 180 long-range missiles at Israel, mostly at military targets, in response to Israel's killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
While most of those projectiles were shot down, some did cause damage at Israeli military facilities and in a neighbourhood on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Citrinowicz, the Israeli researcher, says Iran's leadership may be pondering the cost of retaliation. While Israel's attacks hit some nuclear locations, others remain intact and functional — for now.
"The Iranians have a huge dilemma in front of them," he said. "They want to attack Israel to rebuild the deterrence equation with Israel — but on the other hand, if they do so, they will be exposed to [more] Israeli attacks."
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