Obama's immigration dilemma: Act now or after midterms?

U.S. President Barack Obama has a politically risky decision to make on immigration reform, and advocates pushing him to follow through on a pledge to use his executive authority are worried he's getting cold feet.

As the November midterm elections quickly approach, the White House now appears to be debating the timing of an announcement, weighing whether it would help or hurt Democrats if it were made before voting day.

Immigration reform is a highly polarizing issue and the passionate debate it provokes was on full display earlier this summer as unaccompanied children from Central America flooded the U.S. border. If Obama makes sweeping reforms just ahead of an election, it will have consequences for both parties in terms of their campaign strategies. With Republicans standing a good chance of taking control of the Senate away from Democrats, those strategies are crucial.

Obama is under pressure to keep a promise he made back in June when he said he intended to act alone in overhauling the country's immigration system since Congress has been deadlocked and unable to agree on changes.

He instructed his officials to give him recommendations on what he could legally do with his power as president and he said he wanted them by end of summer and would then act soon after getting them.

The measures could include the deferral of deportations for millions of people who entered the U.S. illegally and granting work visas to some of those undocumented immigrants. He might also tweak immigration enforcement procedures.

Immigration groups who went to the White House for meetings this summer say they were led to believe Obama planned to take action before the November midterms and that "he's going to go big," according to one of the groups.

Obama's timeline interrupted

But in recent days, Obama and the White House have signalled a different message. When he spoke to reporters on Aug. 28, Obama suggested that his timeline was disrupted by the unaccompanied minors situation at the border. It took up the White House's attention and while he promised to still act unilaterally on reform, he didn't say when.

"We're just going to be working through as systematically as possible in order to get this done,” Obama said.

The day after Obama's comments White House press secretary Josh Earnest was pressed for details on timing. He didn't give any, saying he had "no update,” and he made no commitment to action before election day.

When asked about the political calculations, Earnest said it's the Republicans who are making those, not the president. His language lacked a sense of urgency, though, and did not inspire confidence that Obama intends to act as soon as the recommendations arrive in the Oval Office.

He instead kept referring to the set of reforms passed by the Senate but that Republicans in the House of Representatives are refusing to take up for debate. In other words, Obama won't have to take executive action if Congress would just deal with it.

Earnest also made multiple references to Obama wanting to have a debate about the state of the immigration system and about how Republicans have failed to fix it. The president wants to solve problems in the context of a debate that is well understood by the American public, Earnest said.

Obama said at a news conference Friday in Wales that he had started receiving the recommendations and would likely read them on the plane on his trip back to Washington. There were reports Friday of some Democrats openly saying they hope the president delays taking action, and they have concerns about his use of executive authority.

"Fairly soon" he would be considering the "next steps," Obama told reporters while repeating his intention to act without Congress, though he said he would prefer it to act instead of him.

The mixed messages and absence of a timing commitment are indicative of what the New York Times recently reported – that a debate is underway at the White House about when to pull the trigger on executive action.

Conflicting advice at the White House

Some advisers are urging Obama to postpone action because of concern that it could hurt the chances of vulnerable Democratic Senate candidates. There are some competitive races in states where the idea of immigration reform isn't popular and neither is the president. Those include Louisiana, North Carolina and Arkansas.

Others in the White House are encouraging Obama to put any political calculations aside and move ahead quickly. Keeping his promise would help keep Latino voters, who helped elect Obama, on side with Democrats and there is also a belief out there that Republican reaction to whatever Obama does will also help Democrats.

Some predict that Republicans will overreact and will muse about forcing a government shutdown if Obama uses his authority, as Senator Marco Rubio has already done. Last fall's government shutdown did not play well for the Republican Party.

Representative Steve King even alluded to trying to impeach Obama if he takes executive action on immigration, which would also be a risky strategy for Republicans. They are already planning a lawsuit against Obama for using his executive authority in other policy areas.

"Democratic voters want to see the president act boldly and do something that will help millions of people.  And if the predictable overreaction from Republicans follows the president's executive action announcement, then that will also help Democrats," Frank Sharry, executive director of an immigration group called America's Voice, said in a statement. "The real, tangible reward here is for showing political courage, not for being timid.”

Some pro-reform advocates say they are disappointed by the delay talk and they are losing patience with Obama, who promised long ago to help them.

"The president has an historic opportunity to show leadership and courage, on an issue which Republicans only showed cowardice, and regain the confidence of the immigrant and Latino communities," Lorella Praeli, policy and advocacy director for United We Dream, said on the group's website.

"Will he do as little as possible or will he deliver what he promised Latinos in 2008 and 2012 — relief for millions? It is not a matter of whether he can or can't, it is whether he will or won't. And it's a matter of acting now."

Will he or won't he? The answer is eagerly awaited by advocates and candidates alike. The countdown to Nov. 4 is on.