The next pope: Continuity, change or surprise?
Cardinals will gather in Rome to elect successor to Pope Francis
He was the great disruptor to some and the radical modernizer the Roman Catholic Church desperately needed to others.
The remarkable — and at times turbulent — 12-year papacy of Pope Francis, who died Monday, was marked by ambitious reforms, internal division and global controversy. In the coming days, cardinals from every corner of the Catholic world will begin the process of electing a successor.
In the Sistine Chapel, under the magnificent Last Judgment painted by Michelangelo half a millennia ago, 137 cardinal electors will convene and begin casting their secret, successive rounds of voting for the next leader of the world's 1.3 billion Catholics.
Most of the members of the male-only College of Cardinals — around 80 per cent — were appointed by Pope Francis, significantly reshaping its composition by making it more international and reducing its traditional European dominance.
Renowned Vatican analyst Marco Politi says that due to this shift, many cardinals are unknown to one another, a factor that could complicate consensus-building efforts. And while almost three-quarters of voting cardinals (under the age of 80) are Francis's appointees, history proves that's no guarantee they'll elect a successor in his image.
"When a pope dies or resigns, the cardinals are like children when the father is away — everyone suddenly feels free," Politi told CBC.
A dearth of strong front-runners makes the outcome of the upcoming conclave even harder to gauge. American cardinals are deeply divided along theological lines, while historically influential conservatives lack serious challengers. The church is growing in Asia and Africa, but those areas have produced few top candidates.
Yet, in this climate of global instability — with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the upheaval of the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump — most Vatican insiders believe cardinals are likely to lean toward stability, favouring a calm Vatican veteran who could steady the Church following more than a decade of galloping change by Vatican standards.
Observers say this may lead cardinals back toward Europe — perhaps Italy — where candidates have traditionally emerged, shaped by a political culture that emphasizes moderation and is adept at forging consensus.
But with a two-thirds majority — or 92 votes —required to elect the new pope, the final result could easily defy predictions, with uncertainty about who will be the next pope the only constant.
Here are some top "papabili" or papal contenders:
Pietro Parolin: The consolidator
Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, 70, is second to the Pope in Vatican hierarchy and was among the cardinals Francis created in his first consistory (the ceremony to make cardinals) in 2014.
Parolin is a distinguished diplomat who travels widely, forging connections with cardinals worldwide — a serious edge in a conclave.
Parolin is also viewed as a moderate who could solidify Francis's reforms and navigate church politics with the diplomatic finesse of an Italian schooled in the art of consensus-building.
For those who want the next pope to steer a new course, however, his closeness to Francis could be a strike against him.
On his side, though, is the recent upheaval of the world order, says Paddy Agnew, former Vatican observer for the Irish Times:
"This conclave is happening in very unstable geopolitical circumstances, the tensions between the United States and Europe and two horrible conflicts in the Holy Land and Ukraine. As a result, cardinals will be more cautious than even a year ago. They'll need a skilled diplomat, someone with a lot of experience, who will hold the rudder steady. So Parolin has become a major prospect in a way I would never have imagined."
Luis Antonio Tagle: A charismatic choice
While made cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI, Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is known as "the Asian Pope Francis," a priest who cycles to mass and is a political progressive, openly calling for more inclusion of 2SLGBTQ+, divorced and remarried Catholics in the Church.
As Manila's archbishop, he's a major figure in the Philippines, a Catholic powerhouse with a vast global diaspora.
He's led both the Vatican's missionary office and Caritas, the Church's global charity, but was removed by Pope Francis in 2022 from Caritas amid a Vatican cleanup over mismanagement.
"The Caritas removal is a black mark against him, but it was a few years ago now," said Francis X. Rocca, a Rome-based Vatican observer.
"He's part Chinese and his grandfather was a Buddhist, which has helped in dialogue with other religions. He's extremely charismatic, an effective speaker and fluent in English. Many see him as an electrifying presence in the Church."
Mario Grech: The continuity candidate
Mario Grech, 68, a canon law expert, was bishop of Gozo, Malta, before being made cardinal by Pope Francis in 2020. That same year, Francis appointed him secretary general of the Synod of Bishops.
Supportive of discussions for a greater role for women in the Church, the ordination of married priests, welcoming 2SLGBTQ+ people and the sacraments for divorced and remarried Catholics, he's said he's wary of Christians who feel they know all the answers.
Grech gained significant visibility overseeing Francis's landmark Synod on Synodality, a global consultation with meetings in 2023 and 2024 to shape the Church's future.
"As head of the synod, he's in touch with everyone and all the cardinals know him and seem to like him. He was Francis's main man in his final years and he's well-positioned to carry forward his vision," said Paddy Agnew.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The dark horse
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Patriarch of Jerusalem, 60, is the pope's representative in the Holy Land.
Like his fellow Italian Parolin, Pizzaballa has a reputation for deftly navigating fraught political and religious negotiations and has proven to be a tough but sensitive mediator in the Middle East.
He's trusted by both the progressives and conservatives of the Church, says Rocca, but his age could be a disadvantage.
"Pizzaballa is young, which is a mark against him after John Paul II who became pope at 57 and whose pontificate lasted more than 26 years. Cardinals would worry he'd be around forever. But he is also Italian and while Italian cardinals have been much reduced under Francis, going from 24 per cent to 14 per cent, they punch above their weight and have history on their side."
Matteo Zuppi: The peace broker
Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, 69, was raised to the rank of cardinal in 2019 by Francis and heads the Italian bishops' conference.
He is closely associated with Sant'Egidio, a global Catholic social service organization. Through it, he's played a lead role in high-profile peacemaking efforts, including helping end Mozambique's civil war.
The Pope tapped Zuppi to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy.
"Zuppi has been the Pope's go-to guy for the war in Ukraine and social issues. He's very trusted by Francis and seen as somebody who would continue that legacy," said Elise Ann Allen, a senior correspondent with Crux, an online site that covers the Vatican and Catholic Church.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu: The kingmaker
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, is the archbishop of Kinshasa in Congo, president of the African bishops conference and a highly influential figure in the African Catholic Church.
In 2018, Ambongo emerged as a leading figure in the pro-democracy opposition to then president Joseph Kabila, playing a key role in negotiating an agreement that led to democratic elections.
A year later, Francis made him cardinal. His outspoken criticism of global oil and mining companies and politicians who serve their interests has led to death threats. In early 2024, the socially conservative cardinal flew to Rome on behalf of African bishops to challenge Francis's decision to allow priests to bless those in same-sex unions, wrangling an exemption from the pope for the African Church.
"The African continent is extremely important for the Church. It produces millions of new Catholics every year," said Rome-based Vatican expert Andrea Vreede. "While the huge negative reaction on same-sex blessings shows Ambongo doesn't understand the universal church, he has huge sway among African cardinals."
Péter Erdő: The hardliner
The archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Péter Erdő, is a prominent canon lawyer and a well-known conservative. He was made cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003 and is the former head of the European bishops' conference.
The Hungarian, 72, opposes changes to marriage doctrine that would allow divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion and has criticized European Union policies on accepting refugees.
While Erdő is a leader among conservatives, Marco Politi calls his election a longshot.
"There likely won't be a conservative hardliner like Erdő elected pope because the experiment with Ratzinger [Pope Benedict XVI], who was more rigid on doctrinal issues, was not a happy one, with so many crises during his papacy. What cardinals in the conclave will be seeking is someone in the centre: a mediator, who can bring together the parts in the church which are now torn."
Ángel Fernández Artime: The curia outsider
Ángel Fernández Artime, 65, is the rector major of the Salesians — one of the Church's largest religious orders. It's known for its vast network of schools and charitable organizations, particularly in Latin America and Africa, where Catholicism is thriving. Pope Francis made him a cardinal in 2023.
Artime embodies the Pope's call for a missionary Church that engages people at the grassroots and goes to the "periphery," as Francis often urged. He now holds a top position at the Vatican office responsible for religious orders, but lacks the deep curial experience of other papabili, says Iacopo Scaramuzzi, a longtime Vatican observer with the Italian daily La Repubblica.
"As a Spaniard, he speaks a language that connects him to millions of Catholics around the world, especially in Latin America, where the Church is growing fast. The question is whether the cardinals will be willing to gamble on an outsider with limited Vatican experience in such turbulent times."
Robert Francis Prevost: The sleeper candidate
Chicagoan Robert Francis Prevost, 69, is an American cardinal with deep roots in Latin America, where he spent decades as a missionary and served as Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru.
A member of the Augustinians, he's a progressive on issues of social justice, though more rigid on abortion and same-sex marriage. He is now a member of the Council of Cardinals, a select group that advises the pope on Church matters.
As head of the Dicastery for Bishops in Rome, he oversees the selection of new bishops, a process that directly shapes the future of the Church's leadership. While a quiet supporter of "synodality," Church-speak for a bottom-up model of decision-making, he avoids open ideological battles, making him a bridge between factions.
Geopolitical concerns could hinder his chances, though: despite the fact he's spent most of his life in Peru, there's little appetite for an American pope, given the perception that the U.S. already wields too much power, says Iacopo Scaramuzzi.
"Prevost is lowkey and efficient, which could restore order after years of disruption under Francis. He's also proved to be a good negotiator with Germany's progressive cardinals on hot-button issues. His discretion, though, could work for or against him."
Canadian outliers
Canada's two outside papal contenders, Quebec Archbishop Gérald Cyprien Lacroix, 67, and Czech-born Montrealer Michael Czerny, 78, are both closely aligned with Pope Francis.
Francis has entrusted Lacroix with key roles, including on the body that oversees the finances of the Holy See. Though Canadian, Lacroix has strong U.S. ties, having grown up in New Hampshire.
"As the Archbishop of Quebec, he's had to oversee the dramatic downsizing of the Church. While that doesn't seem like the most stellar credential, managing the front line of the decline of the Church in the West is a major challenge and he's proven up to it," said Francis X. Rocca.
The Czech-born, Montreal-raised Czerny, like Francis, is a Jesuit, and helped write Laudato si', the Pope's 2015 landmark encyclical calling for urgent action on climate change.
He runs the Vatican's office for migration and social justice. Czerny is also socially progressive and open to talks about female ordination. While his opinion carries weight among cardinals, they're unlikely to elect two Jesuits in a row.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
