After Navalny, Russians abroad are at a pivotal moment in quest to remove Putin
Opposition leader's death may present an opportunity to unite and enlist Western support
The Russian presidential vote is over and, predictably, Vladimir Putin is about to begin yet another six years in power. But for his opponents abroad it is anything but business as usual.
The absence of credible opponents on the ballot, and the imprisonment of Russia's most consequential opposition figures, had already underlined Putin's refusal to tolerate any hint of dissent at home.
But the death of Alexei Navalny in prison just weeks ahead of the election was interpreted by Russians in the diaspora as a definitive sign that it is for them, now, to lead the movement against Putin from the outside.
"People recognize … is that [this] might be a turning point," said Garry Kasparov, a one-time world chess champion and longtime political activist who now lives in the U.S. He left Russia a decade ago after realizing that pro-democracy activism at home under Putin was increasingly futile and dangerous.
As though to further underline the danger of opposing Putin even from afar, earlier this month Kasparov was added to a Russian list of "terrorists and extremists."
In the wake of Navalny's loss, and as Putin alarmingly puts the whole of Russia on a war footing, opposition figures abroad find themselves at a pivotal moment in their quest to unseat Putin. An ominous turn is seen by some in the opposition also as an opportunity; a catalyst to unify their ranks, and perhaps even spark more substantive support for their cause in Western capitals.
In an interview with CBC's The National in Washington ahead of the election, Kasparov said he's adamant that defeating Putin begins with Russian defeat in Ukraine. In the interim, he said, Russians abroad must become the architects of the post-Putin future.
The question is whether the opposition abroad can, or even should, agree on a way forward. And in either case, who if anyone would lead the outsiders' charge.
Navalny's network-in-exile, the Anti-Corruption Foundation, based in Lithuania, is still grieving but still intact. Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny's wife, is seen to be his natural successor, and has implied she would carry the mantle.
"She inherits not just his moral capital, but his team," said Ekatarina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist and professor who hosts a political talk show on YouTube from Germany. "If they will work together, which is most likely, then she may become a political force in her own right."
There is an array of disunited Russian opposition groups and individuals in the diaspora, including figures like Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a businessman and political activist once imprisoned by Putin, now in exile in London.
Navalny's organization is still best placed to rally the disparate groups, but it has a history of working independently.
"In my opinion, every moment that the opposition [does] not come together is a missed opportunity," said Maxim Katz, an independent Russian politician convicted in absentia of spreading "fake news" about the Russian military.
Before he was charged, Katz left Russia with his family to Israel. From Tel Aviv, he hosts a YouTube channel aimed at Russians at home, in which, among other commentary on current events, he is critical of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Katz has previously clashed with other opposition figures over a proposal to create an opposition coalition ahead of the election. Even Navalny himself once tweeted at him "go to hell with your coalition."
Katz wanted to build a coalition that would reach into Russia using social media to try to sway the Russian electorate ahead of the vote.
Kasparov too dismissed the idea as "wishful thinking."
"The only way to move … the needle of public opinion is Ukrainian success," he said. "Without it nothing will happen."
"That's our chance, because Russians could tolerate any hardship if the war is going well. They never forgive their leaders for losing the war."
Kasparov says Russians opposed to the war should have a role in supporting the effort to help Ukraine, that Western countries should make it easier for Putin's critics to leave — by easing their access to visas — so they could deplete Putin's war machine and plan for a new Russia from abroad.
They should then begin to build, not quite a government in exile, but the "foundations of a new Russia" that provides an alternative for those opposed to Putin, said Kasparov.
"Yeah, he can evade sanctions. He can find … supply from Iran, China, North Korea. He cannot replace 100,000 engineers and computer exiles. So give them a chance to leave," he said.
The model he cited would be something similar to the way the Free French were hosted and allowed to flourish in the U.K. during the Second World War. It's not yet clear who might play the role of the U.K. in modern times.
Some Western nations, like Canada, have most recently expressed support for the Russian opposition by imposing new sanctions in the wake of Navalny's death. Canada targeted senior Russian government officials involved in the violation of Navalny's "human rights, his cruel punishment and ultimately, his death," according to a statement from Canada's foreign affairs minister.
But there is more that Western governments can do, including providing opposition figures a safe space in which to operate, says one European lawmaker.
"It is up to us to support those who are in danger, empower those who are courageous enough to say 'we do not want to be part of the society as it is now there,'" Sergey Lagodinsky, a German member of the European Parliament who left Russia as a child, said from Berlin.
He met Navalny while the two of them were on a fellowship at Yale in 2010.
It is otherwise up to Russian opposition figures, divided as they may be, to decide the best way forward, he said. The "plurality of opposition of voices from Russia" has to be respected, he added.
"That's where we as European politicians, are doing our best to enable them to work together."
Opposition figures abroad do not discount the role of those at home, but Katz says they recognize it is simply easier for them to operate and "normalize" conversation about a better future.
Katz sees part of his role abroad is to counter the predominantly pro-Putin Russian media, and persuade Russians, a large proportion of whom still support Putin, to turn against him.
"We need to convince the Russian people that his leadership is not good for us. This is the only way," said Katz, whose YouTube channel has more than two million followers.
"We need to put our efforts here. And I try to do it."
Meanwhile, Schulmann points out that, throughout history, "dictators are not dislodged from outside and they are not toppled by opposition. They are much more often killed by their own immediate surroundings. They fall victim to coups… or they die natural death."
But, she says, Russians abroad still have a role in saying outside what cannot be said inside.
"Our audience is predominantly in Russia, and it is growing and is not diminishing," said Schulmann. Though not a political actor, but rather a political analyst, she hosts a popular political talk show on YouTube, which has a million followers "predominately" in Russia.
Last year, after she left to take up a fellowship in Germany, she was still labelled a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, and as a result she hasn't felt it would be safe to return.
"There is a demand and if there is a demand, then there is a duty of answering those people who have no one else left."
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